“Unlocking Victory: Discover the Dark Horse Contender Set to Dominate the Texas Children’s Houston Open!”

As the PGA TOUR bids farewell to Florida and heads towards Texas, it’s time to tee up for the highly anticipated Texas Children's Houston Open 2025 at Memorial Park Golf Course. What could be more exciting than witnessing a rematch following last year’s nail-biting showdown? Remember when Stephan Jaeger edged out Scottie Scheffler, with Scheffler’s missed 5-foot putt at the last hole looming large in the memories of fans? It was a dramatic finish that cemented Jaeger’s first, and so far only, PGA TOUR victory, though he faced fierce competition from notable golfers like Tony Finau and Thomas Detry who found themselves tied for second.

This week promises an exhilarating atmosphere as a red-hot Rory McIlroy makes his debut at Memorial Park, a strategic choice ahead of Augusta’s challenges next week. Fresh off victories at both the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and THE PLAYERS Championship, can Rory maintain his momentum?

However, my recent betting picks have been less than stellar, loosing 1.97 units last week alone. So, I’m heading into this event with a fresh strategy—armed with six picks in hopes of bouncing back and hitting that elusive profit line! Curious to find out who I’m backing this week? We’ve got all the details and analysis ready, along with a few dark horses to keep an eye on! LEARN MORE.

The PGA TOUR leaves Florida and heads to the Lone Star State for two events, starting with this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open 2025 at Memorial Park Golf Course. Stephan Jaeger legitimately outdueled Scottie Scheffler in the final round to win last year’s Houston Open. Scottie shot a final-round 68 (-2) with Jaeger carding a 67 (-3). 

Granted, Scheffler missed a 5-foot putt for birdie on the final hole to go into a playoff vs. Jaeger, which Scottie would’ve won. But, still, it was the best moment in Jaeger’s career, and his first and only win on the PGA TOUR. Jaeger held off five golfers who tied for second: Scheffler, Tony Finau, Thomas Detry, Alejandro Tosti, and Taylor Moore. 

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A red-hot Rory McIlroy makes his debut at Memorial Park this week. Rory has won twice already this year, at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (“signature event”) and THE PLAYERS Championship (“golf’s fifth major”). McIlroy is playing the Houston Open because Memorial Park is a better prep course for Augusta National than TPC San Antonio for next week’s Valero Texas Open. 

Last week’s Valspar Championship was terrible. Three of my six picks to win didn’t finish inside the top 40, and the others packed their bags before the weekend. I lost 1.97 units (u), bringing my 2025 PGA TOUR bankroll to -29.88u. This week, I’m bringing another six-pack to Memorial Park. I’m betting to win 20u if one of my picks wins, except for Davis Thompson, who would profit me 25u. 

The odds are via Oddschecker.com at the time of writing. 

For what it’s worth, Thompson is fifth on the PGA TOUR’s “course fit” model for the Houston Open. He ranks 16th on TOUR in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) and 21st in SG: Around-the-Green (ATG). Everyone in the top 10 of the 2024 Houston Open gained strokes OTT and ATG. 

Yet, Davis ranks 65th in total SG on TOUR, which is underwhelming considering his talent. Thompson is only 25 years old, won the 2024 John Deere Classic, and ranked eighth on TOUR in total SG last season. The Georgia Bulldog was first on the World Amateur Golf Ranking twice, in November 2020 and March 2021. 

Thompson flashed that potential at times this year with a T13 at The Genesis Invitational (“signature event”) and a T10 in his previous start, THE PLAYERS. Between his performance in those tough fields, “course fit,” and overall potential, +3000 odds or higher is a good price for Davis at the Houston Open. 

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Si Woo will always be “one of my guys” after winning for me at the 2022 Sony Open. He has played better in three consecutive Houston Opens: Missed cut in 2020, T35 in 2022, and T17 last year. Kim was +9.0 SG: Tee-to-Green at the 2024 Houston Open, +3.2 SG: Approach, and +4.5 SG: ATG but -1.9 SG: Putting. 

Plus, Si Woo is trending in the right direction. Over his last 20 rounds, Si Woo is eighth in this field for total SG, per DataGolf.com. The 2017 PLAYERS champion is sixth in SG: ATG and 16th in Par 5 scoring over that span, according to Bet The Number. If Kim can hit some putts this week, he’ll be in contention at Memorial Park on the weekend. 

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Vibes have to be high with Smalley. He played college golf for Duke, which is a 1-seed in the men’s college basketball 2025 NCAA Tournament, and Cooper Flagg is a lock to be the first pick in the NBA Draft this summer. So that’s cool. More importantly, Smalley is playing well this season, and his game is perfect for Memorial Park.

He is third on TOUR in total SG, first in Par 4 scoring, 14th in SG: OTT, and fifth in SG: ATG. “OTT” and “ATG” are the most important stats for the Houston Open. Alex missed the cut at the Valspar Championship last week. But, Smalley was fifth in the world in “SG vs. his baseline” entering the Valspar, per DataGolf.com. This includes PGA TOUR, DP World Tour, and LIV Tour golfers. 

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The 29-year-old picked up his first PGA TOUR on the last tournament of the FedExCup Fall, winning The RSM Classic 2024. Aka “he’s not a loser.” McNealy almost ran down the field to win The Genesis last month, shooting a final round 64 and losing by one stroke to Ludvig Åberg. 

Maybe that was in Maverick’s head for the “Florida Swing” because he missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. Regardless, the Stanford Cardinal struggles in Florida, so I’m giving him a mulligan because I like his game for this course. 

In his three Houston Opens from 2021-23, Maverick finished 20th, 19th, and 27th. There are five Par-3s at Memorial Park, and McNealy is 12th in Par 3 scoring on TOUR this season. Also, Memorial Park has 12 holes where you need to use a driver, and McNealy has above-average power OTT. 

Finally, he is one of the best putters in the world, and we saw Stephan Jaeger putt his way to victory at last year’s Houston Open. Maverick gained 7.7 strokes on the greens in a T9 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier this season and 8.4 in his second at The Genesis. 

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This kid nukes the ball OTT and can putt his a** off. Potgieter leads the TOUR in driving distance this year, with the second-fastest “Club Head Speed”, and ranks sixth in SG: Putting. He’s missed the cut in four of his six events this season but finished T15 at the Farmers Insurance Open in January and lost in a playoff at the Mexico Open in the other two. 

At the Farmers, Potgieter was two strokes off the lead entering the final round and shot a 78 Sunday to finish T15. In Mexico, Potgieter had a four-stroke lead through the first two rounds, led after 54 holes, and just kind of choked with a final round 71. 

Nevertheless, the South African is only 20 years old. Potgieter being in contention to win on the PGA TOUR at 20 years old speaks to his crazy talent. He’s probably not going to win but, at this price, I’m throwing a dart with Potgieter. 

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Another Stanford Cardinal, Salinda earned his PGA TOUR card by finishing in the top 30 of the Korn Ferry Tour points list last season. After missing the cut in his first two starts on TOUR, Salinda has made five straight cuts with a third-place finish at the 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, a crossover course to Memorial Park. 

Salinda is fifth in SG: OTT this year and has gained strokes ATG in three consecutive starts, including the Arnold Palmer Invitational (“signature event”) and THE PLAYERS. Since driving and chipping are the most important skills for Memorial Park, Salinda is 20th in my 30-round model at Bet The Number. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.