“Bracket Busters Await: The Shockingly Vulnerable No. 1 Seeds Eyeing Sweet 16 Upsets!”

After an opening weekend devoid of upsets, all the No. 1 seeds are still standing in the men’s NCAA Tournament bracket. How could they go down in the Sweet 16? Well, that’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it? It’s been a tournament that, so far, feels more like a Sunday stroll than the chaotic chaos we’ve come to expect from March Madness. In fact, aside from Florida’s near scare, the chalk has held, leaving us with a quartet of top seeds—Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston—each favored by at least 6.5 points in their upcoming clashes. But don’t be fooled; in this unpredictable tournament, any slip could spell doom. So, how do the underdogs stack up against the titans? Let’s dive into the strategies each of these teams must embrace to pull off what would surely become a defining upset in this year’s bracket battle. If you’re ready for some excitement and a potential twist in the narrative, let’s break it down! LEARN MORE

After an opening weekend devoid of upsets, all the No. 1 seeds are still standing in the men’s NCAA Tournament bracket. How could they go down in the Sweet 16?

The first weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament featured some exciting finishes and great individual performances. But âMarch Madness,â it was not.

All four No. 1 seeds are left, with only Florida facing a true scare in the first two rounds. All 16 teams left are from a power conference. Only one team remaining is below a No. 6 seed, and thatâs double-digit seed Arkansas, an SEC team thatâs coached by John Calipari, which hardly feels like an underdog similar to VCU or Loyola Chicago in years past.

Whether this yearâs tournament is indicative of whatâs to come or just a particularly chalky year, the lack of upsets has provided the No. 1 seeds with some tough Sweet 16 games.

But Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston entered the tournament as the top seeds for a reason. All are favored by at least 6.5 points at most sports books heading into Thursday and Friday.

Each of their opponents is going to have to do more than simply play well to win. None of the teams in this yearâs field is perfect, so the underdogs must utilize a key advantage to win.

Let’s break down the best way for each of the teams that are playing against a No. 1 seed to attack, and reveal our March Madness bracket predictions for each region.

South Region: Michigan vs. Auburn

Protect the Ball

Michigan has been an excellent team all season, but turnovers have been the Achilles heel for the Wolverines.

Among the 79 major conference teams, Michigan has committed the second-most turnovers per game with 13.9. Turnovers were an issue in the Wolverinesâ first-round matchup against UC San Diego, but they escaped with a 68-65 win.

In the second round, Michigan advanced to the Sweet 16 bracket by taking care of the ball with only nine turnovers in a 91-79 win over Texas A&M. That tied for the third-fewest turnovers Michigan has had this season.

The Wolverines will need another effort like that against Auburn, which is an elite defensive team but is only around league-average for a major conference team at forcing turnovers. Texas A&M was better at forcing turnovers this season than Auburn, so Michigan has the ability to hold onto the ball. If the Wolverines donât, itâs going to be really hard to pull off an upset considering Auburn has an elite defense even without generating a lot of turnovers.

Everybody Eats

Even in Auburnâs five losses, it held each opponentâs top scorer in check. Only Dukeâs Cooper Flagg exceeded 20 points and only Floridaâs Walter Clayton Jr. shot better than 40% from the field.

The teams that have beat Auburn have not relied on their leading scorers having big games.

Teams have had to move the ball around and take open shots from whoever gets them against Auburn. That is something the Wolverines are perfectly comfortable doing.

Vladislav Goldin is Michigan’s leading scorer, but five players average at least 9.4 points per game and the Wolverines are comfortable letting any of them take a bunch of shots in a row.

Similarly, no one on Michigan is in the top 30 in the country in assists per game, but Tre Donaldson and Danny Wolf both average over 3.5 and seven players average at least 1.0. The Wolverines have a flexible offensive approach and should be able to use that flexibility to keep Auburn guessing.

South Region Win Probability

No. 1 Auburn over No. 5 Michigan (63.6%)
No. 2 Michigan State over No. 6 Ole Miss (60.0%)

East Region: Arizona vs. Duke

Second Chances

Duke has looked every bit like a No. 1 in TRACR during the tournament, with blowout victories against Mount St. Maryâs and Baylor, and Flaggâs ankle looking just fine.

Arizona is likely going to have to win a shootout to move on, as the Wildcats rank only 33rd in defensive TRACR but seventh in offensive TRACR. To score a lot against Duke, they will have to get a lot of second-chance points.

The Wildcats are tied for the 12th-most offensive rebounds per game among power conference teams with 12.3 and have averaged 14.0 in their two tournament games. Duke has been average in keeping opponents off the glass this season and is coming off a game in which Baylor grabbed 18 offensive rebounds compared to the Blue Devilsâ three. Some of this is because Duke barely missed shots, but the Blue Devils can be had on the offensive glass.

Arizona should put pressure on Flagg to box out every possession to try to generate extra chances and tire out the freshman sensation.

No Love Lost

Two weeks ago, we highlighted how Arizona would go as far as Caleb Love could take them.

It proved to be true against Oregon in the second round, when the Wildcats needed every one of Loveâs 29 points to put away the Ducks. Love hit 10 of his 18 shots and five of his seven 3-point attempts.

Now, heâll need to do it again against a team thatâs familiar with him from his North Carolina days. For what itâs worth, Love was 4-3 vs. the Blue Devils as a Tar Heel, with his 28-point performance in a Final Four showdown in 2022 being the highlight. So heâs proven his worth against Duke in the NCAA Tournament before.

For Arizona to have a chance for an upset, Love will have to be at his very best. If he has one of his poor shooting nights, the Wildcats just donât have enough firepower to compete.

East Region Win Probability

No. 1 Duke over No. 4 Arizona (65.3%)
No. 2 Alabama over No. 6 BYU (67.2%)

West Region: Maryland vs. Florida

One and Done

Maryland needs to mimic the rebounding effort put forth by UConn in Floridaâs second-round matchup.

The Huskies, seeking a third straight national championship, nearly pulled off an upset in part because they held the Gators to a manageable 12 offensive rebounds while grabbing 14 of their own.

Floridaâs been elite at grabbing its own missed shots (third-most offensive rebounds per game among major conferences), but itâs struggled to grab their opponentsâ misses (allowing the sixth-most offensive rebounds per game among major conference teams). If the Terrapins can win the offensive rebounding battle, itâll go a long way toward tilting the game in their favor.

Each of the four teams playing against a No. 1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen has between a 30% and 40% chance of advancing.

Inside Men

The big men for Maryland will have to grab a lot of those offensive rebounds, but it also has a lot of other work to pull off the upset.

Derik Queenâs buzzer beater against Colorado State may have been his introduction to casual fans, but followers of the Big Ten know heâs been one of the most productive freshmen in the country.

In todayâs college basketball, itâs really difficult to make an offense work with two non-shooting bigs, but Maryland has done exactly that with Julian Reese and Queen.

It helps that Queen is right-handed and Reese left-handed, so they prefer different blocks. Both are great scorers in the post and willing passers who work the high-low game effectively.

What really makes it work is Queenâs ability off the dribble from the top of the key. Heâs still not a good 3-point shooter, but defenses donât want to leave him alone on the perimeter because if he gets a full head of steam, heâs impossible to stop. Heâs excellent at adjusting shots midair near the rim and can pull up from midrange off the dribble.

Since teams are hesitant to help off Queen, Reese often goes to work without extra help bothering him. Heâs an excellent isolation post scorer who has showcased his ability to score efficiently in the tournament (33 points on 59.1% shooting in two games combined). If he can continue to be a problem against Floridaâs tough interior defense, Maryland will have a real shot.

West Region Win Probability

No. 1 Florida over No. 4 Maryland (62.8%)
No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 10 Arkansas (61.6%)

Midwest Region: Purdue vs. Houston

Turn the Volume Up

Purdue and Houston are similar as teams that shoot a low volume of 3-pointers but with a great percentage.

The Boilermakers need to find a way to generate more 3s against Houstonâs tough defense, which allows a decent number of 3-point attempts per game but has the 12th-best 3-point percentage allowed among major conference teams.

That might seem like a reason for Purdue to avoid the 3-point line, but itâs not like there are any other easy ways to generate offense against Houston. The Boilermakers have to trust that Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, who are elite shooters, can drill semi-contested 3-point looks. Against Houston, theyâre the best shots a team is going to get.

Limit Second Chances

Like Florida, Houston thrives on the offensive glass. The Cougars have the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game among major conference teams. Unlike Florida, Houston doesnât have problems on the defensive glass and is well above average at preventing second-chance opportunities for its opponents.

Offensive rebounds arenât a huge part of Purdueâs game, so the Boilermakers will have to make a concentrated effort to keep Houston from getting second-chance points. If Houston ends the game with several extra shot attempts, Purdue wonât have much of a chance.