“Is FCS Football’s Future at Stake? Uncovering the Secrets to Reviving NFL Draft Dreams!”

In the whirlwind of college football, where transfers are more common than ever and players are lured by the tantalizing riches of NIL deals, the struggle is real for FCS college football programs. It feels like an uphill climb, doesn’t it? But despite these formidable challenges, the FCS is determined to push back against the alarming decline in its NFL Draft picks. Historically, the FCS has supplied the NFL with some incredible talents—think Jerry Rice and Joe Flacco—and it continues to develop stars who make their mark, even if the numbers are dwindling. As we dive deeper into the evolving landscape of college football and the factors contributing to this decline, one burning question remains: can FCS programs find a way to hold on to talent and rekindle their NFL legacy? LEARN MORE.

With the growth in players making transfers and NIL, it feels like a winless battle. But FCS college football is still trying to rally and at least stem its decline in NFL Draft picks.

Even after the NFL Draft was shortened three decades ago, FCS college football has continued to reward NFL teams with standouts.

There’s been the likes of Jerry Rice and Joe Flacco in the first round; Jared Allen, Terrell Owens and Cooper Kupp in the middle rounds; and Marques Colston and Foye Oluokun as late-round gems.

Kurt Warner even had a Pro Football Hall of Fame career after going undrafted.

Not surprisingly, though, the average number of draft picks from FCS programs has decreased over time, with the annual event shortened to seven rounds since 1994 all the while programs that consistently had draftable players moved up from the Division I subdivision to the upper tier FBS, such as Appalachian State and James Madison.

The drop during the 2020s stands out particularly. The number of NFL Draft picks during the first half of this decade – the five drafts from 2020 to ’24 – is down 34% from the 2010s and to the lowest average of selections per year.

Much of the cause is the FCS losing key NFL prospects to the extreme rise in transfers, especially up to the FBS, and the pursuit of NIL at college football’s highest level. Overall, the number of NCAA football players across all divisions who entered the portal in 2023-24 exceeded 11,000, NBC Sports reported.

It’s an entirely different landscape from just 5-10 years ago and perhaps It will never go back to how the FCS helped stock NFL rosters regularly.

The question is, can the FCS level at least curtail the decline from being substantial?

“To be honest, I don’t think there is any way we can stop this trend, at least not in near future,” Villanova coach Mark Ferrante said.

“It is a very difficult environment to retain top talent at this level,” UIW coach Clint Killough said. “It is truly a 24/7, 365-day job.”

FBS Treating FCS Like a Farm System

The split of Division I football into two tiers occurred in 1978, with the first NFL Draft to involve the FCS (then-called Division I-AA) occurring the following spring. There were 12 rounds then and it remained that way until dropping to eight rounds for just 1993, then to seven since ’94.

Over the remainder of the 1990s, 25.3 FCS players were drafted on average. It lowered to 18.4 in the 2000s, then to 17.9 during the 2010s.

This decade got off in an unfortunate way in 2020 with the pandemic, which canceled college pro days and left many FCS players without a showcase of testing for NFL scouts. Only six FCS players were selected in that draft, an all-time low, and it was matched one year later with another disappointing draft.

There’s been a recovery in recent years, but the average this decade is 11.8 FCS draft picks per year.

“Do you remember when I said a decade ago that the numbers were dropping gradually and likely would settle to around 15 or so on average for good?” said Josh Buchanan, a small school draft analyst for NFL Draft Scout and Phil Steele Publications. “The (NCAA transfer) portal has sped it up and we are seeing a major drop in draft picks down to single digits and far less undrafted free-agent signings who make it.”

The portal was launched in October 2018 to give student-athletes a more structured way to switch schools, but it’s really taken off since 2021, when the NCAA no longer required a year of sitting out from competition following a transfer. The one-time transfer exemption has since been lifted, allowing unlimited transfers.

The high movement often feels like chaos, and it’s basically led to FBS programs treating the FCS like a farm system, enticing standout players to transfer earlier in their careers rather than just for one final season of eligibility, which players started to do with more frequency after the NCAA’s grad transfer rule was implemented in 2012.

Coaches can’t just cross their fingers and hope for the best when it comes to retaining players, they have to try to prevent the loss of key players on an annual basis.

“The best thing they can do is just continue to develop the talent,” said Emory Hunt of Football Gameplan and CBS Sports HQ, “and at some point, the student-athletes will realize that it’s best to be a big fish in a small pond as opposed to going to the upper levels and not playing at all.”

Said Tom Wistrcill, the Big Sky Conference commissioner: “We have to focus on our strengths as a subdivision. We provide a great experience for our student-athletes, focused on their team and individual success instead of how much money they can make.

“There is a big opportunity for ‘overlooked’ guys in FCS,” Wistrcill added, “having a chance to put game on film and not just be a practice/one game/pro day guy at FBS. There are also other avenues to the NFL now, too (UFL and CFL), where these teams study the FCS and have their hidden gems that they sign as undrafted free agents.”

NFL Prospects Who Stay Can Be Rewarded

It’s not as though every NFL prospect in the FCS transfers to an FBS program. The FCS remains a path to a pro career, often with less competition for playing time and usually more chances for snaps and production and to turn heads.

Former South Dakota State tight end Tucker Kraft was celebrated particularly as an example in 2022, forsaking six-figure NIL offers at FBS schools to remain in the Jackrabbits program for his final season and pursue a national championship. That worked out for Kraft as well as other SDSU players who did the same the next season while the Jackrabbits captured consecutive titles before going off to the NFL.

North Dakota State offensive lineman Grey Zabel also passed on transfer offers last offseason to remain part of a Bison program that won the 2024 FCS championship. He’s considered an early round NFL prospect for the April 24-26 draft in Green Bay, Wisconsin – as is William & Mary offensive tackle Charles Grant, who also skipped transfer opportunities and NIL to remain with the Tribe.

“If you have a strong culture and solid reputation with the NFL, you have a chance,” said NDSU coach Tim Polasek. The Bison program has had 12 NFL Draft picks since 2014, including two in the first round and more than many FBS programs. “There must be proof in your past players’ performance. For example, the NDSU offensive line. You must have a strong tradition of development and winning so guys see benefit in building upon what has been done in the past.”

The FCS level has long been strong in the draft at a handful of positions, but cornerback selections during the 2020s are down 60% and edge rusher and tight end by 41% and 40%, respectively. Losses abound, of course, with three of the 2025 draft’s expected top-10 picks having begun their college careers in the FCS as either a Jerry Rice Award winner or finalist: quarterbacks Cam Ward (originally UIW, then transfers to Washington State and Miami-FL) and Shedeur Sanders (Jackson State to Colorado), and cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter (Jackson State to Colorado).

Unlike other positions, offensive line is an exception. In fact, the average number of draft picks has remained steady, with 34 selections during the 2010s and 17 (tackle, guard and center combined) through the first five drafts this decade.

Such “late bloomers,” as Buchanan calls some of the leading FCS O-linemen, fill the FCS class of prospects, including Sacramento State’s Jackson Slater and Alabama A&M’s Carson Vinson, who joined Zabel and Grant at the prestigious Reese’s Senior Bowl during this year’s NFL Draft evaluation process.

“I am not saying this because I coached the O-line for a lot of years,” Ferrante said, “but I believe the reason the offensive line position has stayed is because the guys that play O-line are probably the most loyal guys that play the game. They don’t care as much about the ‘headlines’ and don’t have the same level of ‘ego’ that other positional players have.”

Said Polasek: “Most FCS offensive linemen are lacking something when they are high school sophomores, and that is who the P4’s (FBS Power Four conferences) are recruiting. They lack either strength, height and/or weight. Their confidence grows with success, and that takes time for process and potential to come together.”

Be Realistic, Be Transparent, Be Positive

Killough stresses the importance of building and growing player-coach relationships – on a daily basis, if possible.

“The quality of your relationships accompanied with an understanding of a player’s NFL dreams will allow you to advise them with transparency that they are receptive to,” he said.

Sometimes the move from the FCS to the FBS pays off for a player, such as Jared Verse, who left UAlbany after three seasons, including one as a redshirt, to play two years at Florida State and became a top-20 draft pick and the NFL’s 2024 defensive rookie of the year with the Los Angeles Rams.

Sometimes, the move backfires on NFL dreams: Insert promising FCS players rarely heard from down FBS depth charts.

Regardless, the FCS level can and will continue to celebrate the many past successes, the ones about to happen, even those that started in the subdivision and pass through the FBS on the way to the NFL.

“As I like to say,” Wistrcill said, “‘Kids, you can get there from here.’”

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