Shock Prediction: Cinderella Teams to Overturn College Football Powerhouses in 2026 Playoff

As we gear up for the 2025-26 college football season, the buzz around the College Football Playoff (CFP) is palpable. After Ohio State’s thrilling overtime victory over Notre Dame in the 2025 National Championship, clinching their spot atop the sports world, fans and analysts alike are speculating about the future. Here’s where things get really interesting: What insights can the enigmatic and ever-astute Kirk Herbstreit offer? Known for his in-depth analysis, Herbstreit’s commentary has shaped college football narratives for years. Could his thoughts on future playoff contenders help us decode the field for 2026? It’s no secret that understanding the selection process for the CFP’s expanded format is akin to decoding a cryptic puzzle, but we live for these challenges, don’t we?

Let’s delve into who the analytics juggernaut, SP+, projects as the top dogs for next year’s playoffs… LEARN MORE.

ESPN had quite the start to the 12-team College Football Playoff model in 2024-25.

Ohio State, the No. 8 seed in the College Football Playoff, took down Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame en route to a national championship. It was a special run for the Buckeyes, who finished the season at 14-2, with losses to Oregon and Michigan in the regular season.

The 2026 College Football Playoff is expected to stay at 12 teams, with the same setup as last year:

• Five highest-ranked conference champions (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, along with the highest-ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American Conference or Conference USA)
• The next seven highest-ranked teams
• The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive the top four seeds and a bye into the quarterfinals
• The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting games on campus

Who will the 12 teams in the 2026 College Football Playoff be?

ESPN’s model, the SP+, has released its initial projection heading into the 2025-26 regular season.

According to ESPN’s SP+, which weighs returning production, recent recruiting and recent history, here are the 12 teams that will end up making the College Football Playoff.

Top four seeds

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
2. Alabama (SEC champion)
3. Clemson (ACC champion)
4. Kansas State (Big 12 champion)

The Buckeyes are projected to be the country’s No. 1 team, followed by Alabama at No. 2. Clemson and Kansas State are both ranked outside of the top 10, but they play in relatively weak conferences.

The fifth conference champion

Boise State is projected to be the best of the non-power four conference champions, at No. 31 in ESPN’s preseason rankings. 

The Broncos will earn a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff as a result.

The next seven highest-ranked teams

According to ESPN’s model, the seven at-large teams to make the field will be:

1. Penn State
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Oregon
5. Texas
6. Tennessee
7. Ole Miss

That would give the Big Ten three teams – Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon – and the SEC five teams, with Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss.

The final Top 12 seeds

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Kansas State
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Notre Dame
8. Oregon
9. Texas
10. Tennessee
11. Ole Miss
12. Boise State

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Who do you have making the 12-team College Football Playoff in 2026?