Exclusive Insights: Betting Big on Two Surefire Champions in the 2025 NBA Playoffs

In the throes of the NBA 2025, where injuries, losses, and unexpected victories are the norm, one might wonder – if betting on basketball is just a way to make playoff basketball even more stressful? Here I stand, licking my wounds after a rough tumble in the Playoffs with a record that’s more a scarlet letter than a badge of honor. But like the true fan who sees every missed jump shot not as a personal affront but as a reason to double down, I’m stepping back into the arena. With social media bets now boosting my record like a slap bracelet, I’m praying my modest winning streak continues. So, what do you do when you find yourself in a hole this big? Keep digging or find a ladder? For me, it’s a bit of both; I’m betting on two of the league’s titans to help me turn this season around. LEARN MORE

After spending the last couple of days rehabbing from the beating I took in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, I’m getting back out there on Friday. I’m a disgraceful 7-14 in the NBA Play-In Tournament and postseason. I gave out two bets on Thursday on X that both hit, and I’m adding them to my playoff betting record, which is fair since I count the losses of the bets published on social media. 

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Regardless, winning two games in a row is nothing to brag about considering the hole I’ve put myself in betting the Association this season. In fact, I need to cash roughly 75-80% of my bets for the rest of the postseason to break even. It’s doable, but unlikely. Hopefully, the mini-heater will carry into Friday. 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

Boston beat Orlando 103-86 as a -12 home favorite in Game 1 and 109-100 in Game 2 on Wednesday but failed to cover as a -10 favorite. The Celtics’ spread was two points lower than the series opener because All-Star Jayson Tatum missed Game 2 with a wrist injury, and he is doubtful for Game 3. 

Tatum missed 10 games in the regular season and Boston was 8-2 straight up (SU) in those outings with a +10.5 scoring margin. One was a 20-point beating by Orlando at the end of the regular season, but the Celtics rested all of their starters. Boston PG Jrue Holiday is questionable for Game 3, too, and the Celtics were 14-6 SU without him during the regular season. 

I trust the Celtics more than any team to overcome minor injuries because of their continuity. Kristaps Porziņģis missed most of last year’s playoffs, and the Celtics still coasted to a title. Plus, Holiday’s absence isn’t major because the 2024-25 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, PG Payton Pritchard, is replacing him, and the Magic have the worst point guard situation of all the teams in the postseason. 

Also, this pick has some “transitive property” analysis to it: The Thunder were a 9.5-point road favorite in their 114-108 Game 3 win at Memphis, and the gap between OKC and Grizzlies isn’t five points wider than the gap between Boston and Orlando, even if Tatum and Holiday are out. 

Ultimately, the Magic got lucky to cover Game 2. The Celtics’ biggest lead was 15 points despite hitting just 32.4% of their 3-balls. They won three of the “four factors” and three of the four quarters and Orlando only covered by a half-point on Wednesday. Boston doesn’t have to blow the Magic out; it can cover -4.5 with a late surge and free throws in the final seconds. 

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This is a “homer/homie” bet with a little basketball analysis sprinkled in. I’m in Austin, Texas this weekend and hanging out on Friday with a buddy who is a diehard Lakers fan and relocated from Southern California for the greener pastures of the Lone Star State a few years ago. We’re hitting the town for wings and beer to watch the 2025 NFL Draft and Lakers game. 

So, I’m being a good friend and betting Los Angeles in Game 3. That said, I still think the Lakers will crush the T-Wolves in this series despite Minnesota winning Game 1. The Timberwolves shot 21-of-42 from 3-point land in the series opener, but the Lakers adjusted and held them to 20.0% from behind the arc (5-for-25) in Game 2. 

Furthermore, the T-Wolves don’t have a third-scoring option, and we saw that hurt them last game. Minnesota All-Stars SG Anthony Edwards and PF Julius Randle combined for 52 points Tuesday, but none of their teammates reached double digits. While LA has three guys who can “get buckets”: Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and SG Austin Reaves. 

Perhaps the Timberwolves’ role players step up at home. However, LeBron usually figures his opponents out as the playoff series progresses and Luka is the best postseason scorer since Michael Jordan. LeBron and Luka will continue to exploit Minnesota’s weaknesses and take back home-court advantage by winning Game 3. Or at least the Lakers will cover the spread.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.