Why This Year’s Women’s March Madness Is Breaking All the Rules—and Expectations

Can parity and clash coexist on the hardwood? You’d think with multiple teams sharing the No. 1 spotlight this season, we’d be swimming in true equality—but that would be too simple for Division I women’s basketball. Instead, what we’ve got brewing is a fascinating storm: a wider cluster of genuine national title contenders, each biting at the heels of the other, making the chase more thrilling than ever. Texas losing a coin toss to South Carolina for SEC seeding — rather than on the court — underlines just how razor-thin the margins have become. Meanwhile, giants like UConn haven’t even touched the top AP spot, even as they quietly climb in advanced metrics, reminding us that excellence wears many hats. So, is this the season when March truly lives up to its “madness” label in women’s hoops? Buckle up, because the road ahead promises nail-biting drama, unexpected twists, and maybe, just maybe, a shift in the power dynamics we’ve come to expect. LEARN MORE.

Parity and Division I women’s basketball aren’t necessarily synonymous, but this season, there appears to be a larger group of legitimate national championship contenders.

For the third straight week, the No. 1-ranked team in the AP womenâs basketball Top 25 poll suffered a loss.

The difference for Texas on Sunday was it didnât occur on the court, similarly to when UCLA fell to USC for the first time on Feb. 13 and Notre Dame did at NC State 10 days later.

The Longhorns lost a coin flip to South Carolina to determine which of those two teams would be the No. 1 seed in the SEC tournament this week.

The need for that type of tiebreaker (as a last resort) was a reminder how this isnât the typical season with the calendar turned to March and the madness starting across conference tournaments, then into the NCAA womenâs bracket.

Quite simply, there appears to be a larger group of legitimate national championship contenders. Conveniently, itâs occurring while womenâs basketball enjoys unprecedented popularity.

Four teams have been No. 1 in the AP rankings this season â thatâs the most since the 2020-21 season â and three of them â Texas, Notre Dame and UCLA â arenât even the No. 1 seed in their respective conference tournament. South Carolina is the only one from the group.

This season has been so competitive that UConn, which has won a record 11 NCAA championships and advanced to the Final Four 23 times under the sportâs winningest coach, Geno Auriemma, hasnât been No. 1 in the AP poll, although the Huskiesâ recent hot stretch has made them first in TRACR, our net efficiency Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster.

Since JuJu Watkins and USC handed UCLA its first loss, Division I womenâs basketball has been dizzying. But the truth is, the top teams â a group of six have stood out rankings-wise â have basically been playing a round robin all season.

Texasâ losses are to Notre Dame and South Carolina.
UCLAâs two losses are to USC.
South Carolina has fallen to UCLA, Texas and UConn.
UConn has lost to Notre Dame and USC as well as nationally ranked Tennessee.
USC has a loss to Notre Dame plus one against Iowa.
Notre Dame has weathered the very best teams, but fallen to nationally ranked TCU, NC State and Florida State as well as unranked Utah.

Itâs been such a wild ride to the regular season finish line that 12 of the teams ranked seventh to 25th in last Mondayâs AP Top 25 have suffered a loss since then. Extend back 18 days to the night of USC-UCLA I, and 20 of those 25 teams have suffered a defeat, many times beating up on each other.

Sorry Cinderella, D-I women’s basketball and parity aren’t necessarily synonymous. The NCAA has conducted a championship tournament since 1982, and itâs had at least 64 qualifiers since 1994, yet no team below a No. 3 seed has emerged as the winner.

Four times, the Final Four has been a group of only No. 1 seeds, most recently in 2018. Itâs also good to be No. 1-ranked at the end of the regular season, as that team has gone on to sweep the conference and NCAA postseasons in three of the past five opportunities since 2019 (the 2020 NCAAs were canceled due to the pandemic). It includes South Carolina finishing 38-0 a season ago.

âI would expect what weâve seen today,â SEC commissioner Greg Sankey predicted about his conference tournament right before Sundayâs rare coin flip. âClose games, an upset or two, teams that are right on that cutline, that borderline or inside the bubble or outside the bubble know they have another opportunity against the highest level of competition …â

He may as well been talking about the rest of the season in womenâs basketball â from the conference tournaments all the way through the Final Four, April 4-6 in Tampa, Florida.

Tighten the seat belt. The ride could be bumpier than usual.

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