ESPN’s Model Drops Shocking Forecast: Which 8 Teams Are Doomed to Struggle This Season?

Every fall, college football rolls out its red carpet, and with the 2025 season looming — like that one friend who’s always early to the party — expectations and predictions start buzzing louder than a packed stadium on game day. Now, before you get all hyped about the top dogs charging into fall camp, let’s pump the brakes a bit. Remember Ohio State’s wild ride last year, winning the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff despite a “mediocre” 10-2 regular season? Yeah, that was some cinematic stuff. So the real kicker: which teams are getting overhyped, and which ones are setting the stage to stumble? ESPN’s SP+ model has already tagged eight squads as “teams to sell” — the squads that might look shiny now but could fizzle come September kickoff. From the Big 12’s Arizona State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech, to the unexpected shuffles in the Big Ten and the SEC’s Clemson and South Carolina, there’s a lot to unpack. And then there’s Texas — possibly preseason No. 1 but SP+ isn’t buying the hype completely. Makes you wonder: are we buying into narratives or the numbers? Oh, and speaking of narratives, if you thought Kirk Herbstreit’s marriage was the real marquee headline, well… there’s a story there too. Ready to dive deeper and figure out who’s flying too close to the playoff sun? LEARN MORE.

The 2025 college football regular season is right around the corner. 

Spring football has wrapped up, colleges are finishing up spring semester and, before you know it, summer break will be here. Soon enough, college football programs across the country will be reporting to fall camp.

The 2024 college football season was a historic one. Ohio State won the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, taking down Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes went 10-2 in the regular season, but got hot when it mattered most and won the national championship.

Who will be contending for a championship in 2025-26?

ESPN’s model, the SP+, is predicting that eight teams will end up having rough seasons.

According to the SP+, there are eight teams to “sell” heading into the 2025 regular season.

Three Big 12 teams: Arizona State, Iowa State, Texas Tech

The Sun Devils made the College Football Playoff, playing well down the stretch and winning a lot of close games. So, too, did Iowa State and Texas Tech.

However, the SP+ thinks they’ll take steps back.

“ASU, ISU and Tech are all among that huge batch of potential Big 12 contenders, but they were a combined 17-4 in one-score finishes last season, 12-3 in conference play. They’re 11th, 14th and “also considered” on Schlabach’s list, but SP+ is far lower on all of them (29th, 28th and 33rd, respectively),” ESPN wrote.

Two Big Ten teams: Illinois, Indiana

Illinois and Indiana both had surprisingly good seasons in 2024, especially Indiana, which was undefeated for most of the year.

However, they’re expected to take steps back in 2025.

“The Hoosiers are lower because they’re just outside the top 40 in returning production and have no strong recent history on which to lean. The Illini, meanwhile, went 5-1 in one-score games — they won two in overtime and one with a long touchdown in the closing seconds — and finished 2024 ranked only in the 30s in SP+,” ESPN added.

Clemson, South Carolina

Clemson made it back to national relevance in 2024, reaching the College Football Playoff. The Gamecocks looked good for most of SEC play, as well.

However, ESPN’s SP+ is projecting that they’ll take a step back in 2025.

“This season will be a good measure of each team’s ceiling — especially Clemson’s, considering the Tigers rank first nationally in returning production. They haven’t looked like a genuine national title contender since 2019 or 2020. Can experience push them back into the sport’s top tier?” ESPN added.

Texas

The Longhorns could open the season ranked No. 1 in the country. However, ESPN’s model believes that the Longhorns are closer to the bottom of the top 10 than they are the top.

Texas should still be a College Football Playoff team, but perhaps not the national title favorite that everyone expects.

“To believe in the Horns as a top-two team is to believe in the Arch Effect, I guess. That might turn out to be real, but SP+ obviously isn’t programmed for it. They start out seventh,” ESPN wrote.

Who do you have as college football’s teams to sell heading into the 2025 season?