Inside the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Unveiling the Dark Horses Set to Shake Up Churchill Downs and the American Turf Stakes

So, here we are—Derby Day. Whether you’re a seasoned horse racing junkie or someone like me, parachuting headfirst into this wild, ancient world of hooves and high stakes just ahead of the 2025 Kentucky Derby, welcome aboard. Horse racing might just be the most underrated sport out there—a perfect cocktail of raw athleticism, regal tradition, and yes, some of the oldest, most civilized gambling known to man. Now, here’s a question I’ve been chewing on: why does nobody talk more about the thrill of backing a longshot or an exotic bet? It’s like finding treasure in plain sight… a secret kingdom where kings and commoners alike chase glory down the track. So, here’s my take on the sharpest contenders you’ll want on your radar today—from the Grade 1 Churchill Downs sprints to the lush green stretches of the American Turf and beyond. Ready to dive deep into the pulse-pounding action and maybe snag a few winning picks while you’re at it? Yeah, me too. Let’s get into it.

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Happy Derby Day to all those who celebrate. I’m assuming anyone who clicked on this article is either A- Into horse racing, or B- parachutting into the sport for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, like me. Regardless, welcome to the most underrated sport in the world, and one of the oldest civilized gambling events. 

They call horse racing the “Sport of Kings,” and nothing feels more regal than hitting a longshot or an exotic. That said, here are my bets for the Grade 1 Churchill Down, American Turf, Derby City Distaff, and Turf Classic Stakes races on Derby Day. 

Eleven horses on a 7-furlong dirt track for 4-year-olds and upward with a $1M purse. 

I used Mindframe in the Belmont Stakes 2024 at Saratoga in my winning Exacta Box bet where he finished second by a half-length to Dornoch. He was second to Dornoch in his following race, the Grade 1 Haskell in July 2024. Otherwise, Mindframe has won every other race. This is his second sprint. The first was Mindframe’s fastest race, breaking his maiden in a win by 13.75 lengths last March. 

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Fourteen horses (four scratches) on a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile turf track for 3-year-olds with a $1M purse. 

Perhaps the best jockey-trainer combo in this field. He’s 2-0 in races at this distance as a 2-year-old, including the Grade 3 With Anticipation in Saratoga and the Grade 2 Pilgrim at the Aqueduct last summer. Zulu Kingdom won the Columbia Stakes his first time out this year with his career-best BSF. 

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Ten horses (six scratches) on a 7-furlong dirt track for 4-year-olds and upward with a $1M purse. 

Kopion looked great in the winter, winning the Grade 1 LaBrea by 2.75 lengths and Grade 2 Santa Monica by 4.5 lengths at Santa Anita in December and January. She ran her fastest BSFs in the LaBrea (97) and Santa Monica (110) too. Kopion has hit the board in four of her five stakes races, including three wins and a second, and she is a perfect 3-0 at this distance. 

She is a “horse for the course,” winning all four starts at Churchill Downs, including the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff last Derby Day and the Grade 3 Chicago in June 2024. Plus, they are running on a sloppy track Saturday, and Vahva won her only race on a sloppy track. Finally, she is training well with two 47-second, four-furlong workouts entering Derby Day 2025. 

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Ten horses (two scratches) on a one-and-one-eighth-mile turf track for 4-year-olds and upward with a $1M purse. 

I’m rolling with my fellow Saratogian, trainer Chad Brown, who kills it at The Spa every summer on the Saratoga turf. Granted, the Spirit of St. Louis is making his Churchill debut. But, he won once on the Saratoga turf, finished second by a nose another time, and won on the muddy dirt track when it got moved from the turf. 

Spirit of St. Louis ran his fastest BSF in his first race this season, winning the Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream. Finally, he’s won two of three starts at this distance and Franco has won seven of his nine mounts atop the Spirit of St. Louis with seconds in the other two. 

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Nineteen horses (two scratches) on a 1.25-mile turf track for 3-year-olds with a $5M purse. 

$10 Win-Place-Show: #7 Luxor Cafe ($30 total bet)

$5 Win-Place-Show: #1 Citizen Bull ($15 total bet)

$1 Trifecta Box: 1-7-17 ($6 total bet)

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.