Could Game 2 Shake Up the Pacers-Cavaliers Series? Expert Picks Reveal Shocking Underdog Potential

If Monday’s 2025 NBA Playoffs opener didn’t knock you off your couch, did you even really watch? After a regular season that felt like a slog—save for that gritty Knicks vs. Pistons dust-up—the postseason ignited in a way that had me questioning if we’re witnessing a full-on basketball renaissance or just a very well-timed fluke. The Knicks clawed back from a 20-point hole to steal Game 1 from the Celtics in overtime, while the Nuggets dropped a dagger on the Thunder with a buzzer-beating three. Oh, and yeah… both my bets cashed—talk about setting the bar high for what’s next. Makes you wonder: how much of this playoff magic hinges on cold hard numbers, and how much on nerve and clutch performances?

But here’s the real kicker — three-pointers aren’t just background music anymore; they’re the headline act. Indiana’s barrage of wide-open triples in Game 1 (talk about spacing!) flipped the script against Cleveland, who might be facing a serious handicap if Darius Garland remains sidelined. Missing Garland, Hunter, and Mobley? That’s a defensive nightmare for the Cavs and a “free roll” for the Pacers to cover the spread. What happens when the game turns into a shootout, and the Cavs’ best creator is MIA? It’s a fascinating chess match with shooting percentage and health status as the pawns and rooks — and I can’t wait to see how it unfolds.

Meanwhile, I’m still licking my wounds from earlier misfires—betting the Rockets over Golden State and the Lakers over Minnesota—but the Warriors’ matchup against the Timberwolves is shaping up like a clinic in strategic exploitation, with Kerr pulling strings to open lanes for Curry and Butler. If you thought the playoffs were predictable, think again.

Ready to dive into the nitty-gritty of all this action? Trust me, you’re gonna want to stick around.

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Monday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs is a hard act to follow. The Association was a tough watch during the regular season and besides the New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons in the first round of the postseason wasn’t much better. Monday, on the other hand, was one of the best nights in the NBA over the last three years. 

The Knicks rallied from a 20-point deficit to upset the Boston Celtics in overtime of Game 1 Monday. Afterward, the Denver Nuggets beat the Oklahoma City Thunder with a game-winning 3-pointer in the final seconds of their series opener. More importantly, I cashed both of my bets Monday, so I have a hard act to follow, too. 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

The 3-pointer is the most important thing in this series, specifically, and the NBA, generally. With that in mind, Indiana shot 14 more wide-open 3-pointers (25-11) in its 121-112 Game 1 victory. “Wide-open” is when the 3-point shooter is at least six feet from the nearest defender. 

Everyone is talking about “shooting variance,” and how the Pacers were lucky to hit 52.8% of their 3-pointers on Sunday and the Cavs were unlucky to make 27.3% of their “wide-open” 3-pointers. Yet, if Indy gets that many more wide-open looks from deep, maybe it won’t regress in Game 2. 

Furthermore, Cleveland PG Darius Garland missed the series opener and is questionable for Game 2. If Garland doesn’t play, the Cavaliers don’t have anyone to create open shots for their role players. Cavs All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell will “get his,” but he’s not someone I want running my offense for an entire game. 

Garland, SF DeAndre Hunter, and 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, PF Evan Mobley, missed shootaround for Game 2 Tuesday morning. Hunter is an elite 3-And-D, glue guy. Mobley has the best on/off net rating among Cleveland’s starters, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and is the anchor of its defense. 

Mobley, Hunter, and Garland missing Game 2 is a “free roll” because Indiana should be able to cover +7.5, regardless. Pacers PF Pascal Siakam and C Myles Turner cancel out Mobley and Cavaliers C Jarrett Allen. The coaching matchup is a toss-up, and these rosters have similar continuity. Ultimately, this series will come down to 3-point shooting, and Indy has more 3-point shooters. 

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I’m still wiping the egg off my face after betting the Houston Rockets to beat Golden State in Game 7 and picking the Los Angeles Lakers to beat Minnesota in the first round. However, I’m not putting much stock into the T-Wolves’ elimination of the Lakers since LA didn’t have any bigs or anyone to defend Anthony Edwards.

Both teams play at a slow pace, but Golden State had better half-court efficiency on both ends of the floor in the first round, per CTG. Plus, Steph Curry crushed the Timberwolves this season despite Edwards playing in every meeting. Curry averaged 28.8 points on 45.8% 3-point shooting and had a +14 net rating in four games vs. Minnesota. 

Finally, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has many more ways he can exploit Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert on the perimeter than the Lakers. Golden State can pull Gobert out of the paint by starting its offense at the top of the key with Draymond Green. Once Gobert is out of the paint, driving lanes will open up for Curry, and Jimmy Butler can operate in the mid-range. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.