Can the Warriors Defy the Odds and Thrive Without Steph Curry?

When your team wins Game 1 on the road during the playoffs, you’re supposed to be riding high, right? Well, the Golden State Warriors got that rush Tuesday night in Minnesota—a solid 99-88 victory to kick off the second round that should’ve been pure jubilation. But then, bam! Steph Curry limps off with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, throwing a wrench into their championship gears. Now, the big question hanging over the Warriors isn’t just when Curry will return—it’s can they realistically hang on without their franchise star? Missing at least a week in the thick of the playoffs could spell trouble, especially in a series that might stretch to seven games. It’s like asking if a chef can serve a five-star meal without the secret sauce—sure, you can try, but will it taste the same? Let’s dig into what this means for Golden State’s offense, defense, and their chances of surviving the Minnesota gauntlet without Curry leading the charge. LEARN MORE

Steph Curry’s injury put a major damper on the Warriors’ Game 1 win at Minnesota. With the superstar set to miss some time, it’s fair to wonder if this is the end of the road.

It should have been a joyous moment for the Golden State Warriors.

The second round of the NBA playoffs started with a bang with the road teams opening 5-0, including Golden State’s 99-88 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night.

But that Game 1 victory came with a huge cost, as Stephen Curry’s injury update wasn’t good. Warriors coach Steve Kerr said after Tuesday that it’s hard to imagine that he would play Thursday in Game 2. And the news came out Wednesday that it’s serious enough that he’ll miss at least a week with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain.

That puts the Warriors’ star, who had 13 points in 13 minutes in the opener, out the next three games at minimum and, if the hamstring injury lingers at all, could put him in danger of missing the entire series even if it goes seven games.

The Warriors were able to hold on without Curry in the opener, but it’s obviously going to be an uphill battle without him. The offense looked untenable without Jimmy Butler in the team’s first-round playoff series and Curry is the only player more significant to offensive success than Butler.

But the Warriors showed they are capable of winning short-handed in Game 1. Some of their success was based on bad Minnesota shooting that likely won’t continue, but some of it seemed sustainable.

Death By a Thousand Cuts

The Warriors revolutionized basketball with the “death lineup” in 2014-15 and used different iterations of the same concept throughout their reign of championships.

It starts with Draymond Green playing at center, but it’s more than that. It’s about five capable ball handlers and shooters on the floor and stressing every defender to guard in space.

Curry is the lynchpin of most of this success, but the Warriors still have the roster to play small and open up their offense without him. It’s also the perfect strategy to stress the Timberwolves’ typically stingy defense.

The Timberwolves are playing two traditional big men for good portions of the game and the Warriors need to leverage their quick processing skills to put Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Naz Reid in unfavorable situations.

A lot of teams have tried to take on these players in isolation, but the Timberwolves are ready for that.

Gobert is a better isolation defender than commonly thought. Yes, Luka Doncic punked him a bunch, but that’s true of just about every big who’s ever switched on him. And the Timberwolves are one of the best teams in the league at helping without committing to a full double team and rotating when necessary behind the play.

The better way to attack the Wolves is by getting their bigs on the move. The Warriors did this in abundance in Game 1. Any time there was a bit of daylight, whether it was because someone got beat off the dribble or the possession started in semi-transition, the Warriors made sure whoever was guarded by the Wolves’ big men had to keep their legs and minds running.

This possession starts with Green getting a full head of steam heading toward the basket. Nickeil Alexander-Walker doesn’t want to leave the white-hot Buddy Hield, so he’s a step late trying to contain Green. Terrence Shannon Jr. steps in to contain the drive and from there the Wolves lose track of where the help needs to go and Jonathan Kuminga comes in for an easy dunk.

This is how the Warriors need to play when possible. Green has to be aggressive trying to get downhill when the opportunity presents itself. The Wolves will likely try to make Green beat them as a scorer and not help too aggressively when he gets penetration, but if he can cause enough problems in the initial action on possessions, the Warriors have enough shooting and basketball IQ to finish the play with high-quality shots.

It’s not just Green, either. The Wolves will try to get away with guarding the Warriors’ worst shooters with bigs, and those players have to be active. Gary Payton II shot well in Game 1 but the Wolves will try to make him beat them. Ditto for Kuminga when he’s in the game. Those players have to be active and purposeful without the ball.

Can Jimmy Get Buckets?

Using motion to create open looks is a must, but it’s not going to solve all of the offensive issues without Curry. The Wolves are good defensively and capable of putting out fires as well as any team in the league.

There are going to be possessions in which the Warriors need a star to make star plays and the only player that fits that bill offensively is Jimmy Butler.

It’s a lot to ask of Butler in this series. He’s been up-and-down since returning from his injury in the first round with streaks of brilliance and bouts of inconsistency. In Game 1, he finished with 20 points but shot just 7 of 20 from the field. His playmaking has been on point, though, as he’s had at least seven assists in each of the last three games.

The Wolves are well-equipped to deal with Butler if Curry isn’t on the floor. They have Jaden McDaniels, an elite defender who was expected to spend a lot of time chasing Curry around ball screens, available to bother Butler on-ball and be a monster helper when not. Most of their other rotation players are big and strong enough to withstand being overwhelmed by Butler’s physicality as well.

But the Warriors have no choice but to turn some possessions over to Butler, and he’s shown he can be the No. 1 option in the playoffs while with the Miami Heat. He’s an underrated isolation player because of two factors: free throws and turnovers.

Butler was one of 10 players in the regular season to average at least seven free throws per game and he’s hitting that mark again in the playoffs. His ability to get to the basket and free-throw line is what jumpstarted the Warriors after they acquired him and it’s even more important with Curry sidelined.

One of the most underrated offensive skills is the ability to hold onto the ball, and Butler’s always been very good at that for a player so heavily involved in the offense. The Warriors are going to have some turnovers playing their style of offense; having a high-usage player who doesn’t add to any turnover issues is key for them.

In the playoffs, Butler is turning it over just 0.6 times per game, an astronomically low number for a player with his offensive burden. The offense might get ugly without Curry, but having Butler to calm things down and make correct decisions can help the Warriors avoid long scoring droughts.

Win With Defense

There are holes for the Warriors to poke on offense, but the bottom line is the team won’t be nearly as good on that side of the ball without Curry.

In the 12 games Curry missed this year, the Warriors went 7-5. It’s a small sample in a regular season, but it’s still impressive considering the team is 91-152 without Curry since he joined the team.

As you’d expect, the Warriors offense is much worse in those games without Curry. The team scored 115.0 points per game when Curry played this season and 106.9 when he didn’t. Their field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and number of assists were all down without Curry.  

Where the team was able to succeed was on defense, allowing 105.8 points per game in games Curry didn’t play and 111.3 when he did. It’ll be the defense that has to continue to save the day.

A big part of Game 1 was the Timberwolves missing 3-pointers. They’ve now shot an unfathomably bad 12 of 76 (15.8%) on 3s over their last two playoff games.

The Warriors can’t count on those types of shooting numbers again, but they can continue to make the Wolves uncomfortable – particularly their role players. Donte DiVincenzo is a better shooter than he showed in Game 1 (1 of 7 on 3s) but the Warriors forced him to be a playmaker (four turnovers) as much as they could by running him off the 3-point line in aggressive but disciplined closeouts.

Naz Reid was the only Minnesota player who shot well from deep, but he turned it over four times as well, something he’d only done four times this season.

DiVincenzo and Reid are good offensive players, but they’re tip-of-the-spear players who are at their best finishing possessions. The Warriors are going to keep trying to make these players beat them by making quick decisions as opposed to taking spot-up jump shots.

Having the best defender in the league (according to DRIP) helps. Draymond Green was a defensive menace during the regular season and has been even better in the postseason. His ability to guard any player on the floor and help without compromising the defense is unparalleled.

He’s also the key to a huge battle moving forward that dates all the way back to the death lineup. The secret sauce to these lineups isn’t just Green’s defense, but his ability to rebound like a center. A lot of teams give up too many second-chance opportunities to make small lineups feasible; Green allows the Warriors to finish possessions.

In Game 1, the Warriors had 18 offensive rebounds compared to 12 for the Wolves. With Green and Butler, the Warriors have the ability and desire to keep the Wolves off the glass. And while the Wolves can match Golden State’s physical strength when the Warriors have the ball, the same is true for the Warriors when the roles are reversed.

The Wolves are used to bullying teams, but Butler and Green will not be bullied. If the Warriors want to survive without Curry, defense and toughness have to be their calling cards.

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