Celtics’ Playoff Fate Hangs by a Thread: Can They Escape a Shocking Collapse Against the Knicks?

For the Boston Celtics, last season’s swoosh-worthy barrage of threes was nothing short of a championship symphony — a relentless rain of shots that turned defenses into frantic calculators trying to solve an impossible equation. But now? The tune’s gone sour. Imagine betting on a laser-focused sharp-shooter who suddenly can’t find the rim from 23 feet. For two games straight, the Celtics have watched Big Leads turn into heartbreakers, thanks largely to a bewildering drought from beyond the arc. Could their once lethal three-point obsession be morphing into a liability? When you’re chucking nearly 50 threes a night and barely hitting a quarter of ’em in crunch time, it’s hard not to wonder if the bubble’s burst on Boston’s shoot-first ethos — or if there’s a deeper trouble brewing under those green jerseys. One thing’s crystal clear: if the Celtics don’t recalibrate, their hard-fought title defense might be over before it really got going. LEARN MORE.

For the second straight game, the Celtics blew a big lead by missing a ton of shots. Are the 3s the reason the Celtics are losing?

The 2023-24 Boston Celtics were champions for a lot of reasons. But one of them was their 3-point volume.

Long after the Warriors dispelled the notion that a “jump-shooting” team couldn’t win the title, the Celtics ran through the playoffs last season on the back of their 3-point shooting volume. They led the league in 3-point attempts in both the regular season and playoffs and turned every game into a math problem for the other team. The Celtics would have slumps like any other team from outside, but, when the runs came, they were avalanches. Five made 3s in a minute and a half. And the game would flip on its head.

This year, the Celtics ratchetted up the 3-point volume even more. The Celtics led the league with 42.5 last season; that number ballooned to 48.2 this season. They shot 5.8 more 3s per game than the team with the second-most attempts (the Golden State Warriors).

Could this be too much of what is normally a good thing? The Celtics find themselves down 2-0 to the Knicks after two stunning fourth quarter collapses.

Only six teams in NBA history have come back to win a series after losing the first two games at home and five of those comebacks came in the first round. The 1993-94 Houston Rockets are the only team to achieve this comeback later in the playoffs, when they beat the Phoenix Suns in seven games after dropping the first two at home.

This is the hole the Celtics are in now, and they have poor shooting to blame. They’ve shot a dreadful 25 of 100 on 3-point attempts in the two games combined. There are a few ways to approach their offensive woes, but one thing is for sure: They need to recalibrate quickly or the title defense will end in a hurry.

To 3 or Not to 3

There is an argument that the Celtics are just missing too many 3s, not taking too many.

The offense regressed slightly from last year, but the Celtics still had the second-best offensive rating in the league at 117.6. Taking more 3s certainly didn’t hurt them in the regular season.

And the team is actually taking fewer 3s this postseason than they did during last year’s title run. There wasn’t any complaining last year when Boston’s offense got them to a title. But now, the team is mired in a deep slump, so the complaints are there.

And yet, it does feel different this round. The Celtics are taking 50.0 3s and 45.5 2s. For a team in a jump-shooting slump, this seems to be too extreme.

The Knicks allowed the fifth-fewest 3-point attempts in the NBA in the regular season. But the Celtics are generating a ton of 3s against the Knicks defense. On the surface, this feels like a victory for the Celtics.

But teams have to find different ways to win in the postseason. The Celtics have to find a way to generate more easy looks inside.

From 7:39-2:55 in the fourth quarter in Game 2, the Celtics went 0 for 8 from the field while only shooting two free throws. Seven of the eight shots were 3-pointers. Slumps happen, but Boston could mitigate those slumps by getting to the line more or getting easy baskets inside. The team hasn’t been able to do that against the Knicks.

The Knicks have played the Celtics well, but they weren’t some impenetrable force on defense this year. They finished 16th in defensive efficiency this season and 18th in 2-point percentage allowed. The Celtics should be able to find better looks inside, but they haven’t worked hard enough to do so.

Isolated

The Celtics’ shooting slump has opened up the door for the Knicks, and they’ve kicked it down. One of the Celtics’ biggest weaknesses has been the tendency to fall into hero ball at the end of games. They’re certainly not the only team to do it and, for some teams, it is the best offense. Teams can’t rely on a whistle with the game on the line, and they don’t want to turn it over. So, putting the ball in your best player’s hands and telling him to make a decision can be a good course of action.

The problem for the Celtics is that Jayson Tatum hasn’t thrived in clutch situations this year. He’s shot just 41.4% from the field and 17.6% on 3s in the last five minutes of a game when the point differential is five or fewer. Jalen Brunson won Clutch Player of the Year by shooting 50.5% from the field and getting to the free-throw line significantly more frequently than Tatum in the clutch.

The Celtics had the superior offense to the Knicks this season. But when you reduce the game to isolation in the clutch, the Knicks have an edge. The Celtics would be better off running more traditional action at the end of games than having Tatum try to out-hero Brunson. So far, they’ve taken the bait.

Foot off the Gas

Of course, these clutch situations have only been a problem because the Celtics have blown huge leads. In Game 1, the Celtics led by 16 at halftime only to squander that in the fourth quarter and eventually lose in overtime. In Game 2, the Knicks ended the game on a 23-6 run to win by one point. Both games switched from easy Celtics wins to painful losses in a hurry.

The Knicks deserve a ton of credit for not letting the situations overwhelm them. The team has shown an impressive resiliency in staying composed down the stretch and continuing to run good offense.

But, no matter how well the Knicks played down the stretch, these are inexcusable losses by the Celtics. They are the only team in the last 25 years to have a 20+ point lead in back-to-back playoff games and lose both.

These blown leads are about much more than missed 3s. The 3s play into them, but they’re a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself.

Simply put, the Celtics have taken their foot off the gas while building big leads and have been unable to find it again when the game gets close. Early in the game, the Celtics’ ball movement has been something to behold, even when the shots aren’t falling. But late in both games, they have resorted to winding down the clock instead of generating good offense. It’s come back to bite them both times.

Ultimately, the Celtics need to both generate better shots and hit more of the shots they are generating. It’s a make-or-miss league and the Celtics are missing.

Research provided by Sam Hovland. For more coverage, follow us on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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