Can Detroit Really Cruise to an Easy Win in Game 1, or Is a Shocking Upset Brewing?

Ever notice how life seems to balance itself out in the oddest ways? Like that classic Seinfeld bit where Elaine tosses a $20 bill out the window, only for Jerry to find—poof!—a crisp $20 in an old jacket pocket. If only sports betting worked that way, right? Nope, here the house always takes a cut—“the juice”—so you rarely walk away even. Yesterday was a meh 1-1 for me, not a disaster, but far from a touchdown moment. So today, I’m aiming for a cleaner win with the Tigers facing off against the Rockies—game time 3:10 ET.

Detroit’s been flying under many radars this season, shaking off last year’s “pitching staff with no pop” label. Honestly, I was skeptical too. Sure, they’ve got arms that drew Cy Young nods, but the bats? Meh. But here’s the kicker—this squad’s pitching and hitting are clicking better than expected. Casey Mize, in particular, caught my eye. He closes Game 1 in Colorado, and though his last outing wasn’t flawless, he earned us a solid multi-unit victory. Meanwhile, the Rockies… well, imagine a team so rough that their home record looks like a bad punchline—4-12—but it’s no joke. They’ve been struggling to put wins on the board or keep opponents at bay, and Kyle Freeland’s start today is, frankly, a gamble with shaky odds.

So what am I leaning into? Trends don’t lie—the Rockies bleed runs while scoring barely a whisper. Backing the run line, even at -2.5, feels like the smarter play. It’s early, it’s rough, but it’s what the numbers whisper. Curious how this one plays out? Stick with me here.

LEARN MORE

Tigers vs. Rockies, 3:10 ET

There is a Seinfeld episode where Jerry is talking to his friends about how everything evens out for him. Elaine tests the theory by throwing a $20 bill out of the window, and Jerry then puts a jacket on that he hasn’t worn in years. Inside that coat pocket? A $20 bill. Things tend to be balanced, but in sports betting, we really can’t be balanced because we lose on the juice. So a 1-1 day, like I had yesterday, isn’t terrible, but it isn’t ideal either. Today we look to get a victory on the game between the Tigers and the Rockies. 

Detroit is surprisingly great so far this season. If you looked at the team last year, the overwhelming opinion was that they were a good pitching staff, but didn’t have enough hitting to get it done. I can say with certainty that was my thought on them. They had the Cy Young and some other good arms, but the offense wasn’t going to carry them all the way to a World Series. It is still too early to anoint them as World Series winners, and it is more unlikely than likely that they make it that far, but this is a surprisingly well-balanced team. The pitching staff is good, and the offense is playing better than it has in recent years. One guy I’ve liked backing on the staff is Casey Mize. Mize will toe the rubber in Colorado to close out Game 1 of today’s double-header. Mize got us our first multi-unit win the other day against the Angels. It wasn’t his best performance – seven innings, seven hits, two homers, and four earned runs, but the result was what I was looking for. Rockies hitters are hitting .333 against him in just 12 at-bats, so not much you can take from those stats. 

The Rockies are playing surprisingly terrible to this point in the season. No one in their right mind expected the Rockies to be good this season, but certainly people had to think they would be better than this, right? We are in May and the Rockies still don’t have double-digit victories for the season. We are in MAY. Colorado hasn’t won a series yet, and they’ve won two games in a row just once – it happened April 30th and May 1st. They’ve always been bad on the road, but their home record usually is around .500. Not this year at 4-12. Since April 24th, the Rockies have allowed six or more runs in 10 of 13 games. They’ve scored three or fewer runs in eight of those 13 contests. This is a brutally bad team. Kyle Freeland takes the hill today. He has had some success at Coors Field in the past, but not this year. This year he has an 8.53 ERA in three starts allowing 12 earned runs in 12.2 innings. It may not be a huge sample size, but there really isn’t one outlier game, he’s allowing runs in all three of those starts. There aren’t many hitters with experience against him, with three Tigers totaling 18 at-bats, and Glyber Torres having all three hits in five chances. 

While I like to give a bit of an edge to the pitcher that a lineup hasn’t seen before, I don’t think we can give that luxury to Freeland. Mize has shown that hitters have at least made contact against him in the past so I don’t expect him to come off the mound unscathed in this one either. I do think we need to look at the trends though – the Rockies are allowing a lot of runs, and not scoring many. Back the run line here. I don’t even mind a -2.5. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024