2025 NBA Playoffs Game 4 Showdowns: Which Underdog Could Shock and Rewrite the Series?

Game 4 in the 2025 NBA Playoffs brings us a double dose of drama and desperation Monday night. On the East Coast, the New York Knicks are licking their wounds after a brutal 115-93 beatdown by the Boston Celtics—the reigning champs who seem hell-bent on proving that their barrage of threes isn’t going anywhere. Meanwhile, out West, the Minnesota Timberwolves smell blood in the water as they look to threaten a Golden State Warriors squad eerily missing their sharpshooting wizard, Steph Curry. With the NBA season winding down, every matchup feels more precious—more consequential. So, what adjustments can we really expect from the Knicks’ masterful defensive guru Tom Thibodeau, and can Minnesota’s physicality finally bury the Warriors’ hopes? Or are we simply witnessing a playoff manifestation of the age-old question: How much is too much reliance on the three-point shot before it backfires? As the summer sun approaches and the hardwood heats up, let’s break down the bets that might just tilt the odds in your favor for these pivotal Game 4 clashes.

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We have a Game 4 doubleheader in the 2025 NBA Playoffs Monday. First, the New York Knicks look to recover from a thrashing Saturday when hosting the reigning champion Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Then, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to put a Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors on the brink of elimination out West. 

Since the NBA season is hitting the home stretch, there are only so many games left to bet on. That said, here are my Game 4 looks for the Celtics-Knicks and Timberwolves-Warriors series. 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

New York was never sweeping this series, so Boston’s 115-93 Game 3 a**-whooping Saturday wasn’t surprising. Even I, who bet the Knicks to cover +6.5, thought the Celtics would win Game 3. Boston went 20-for-40 from behind the arc Saturday and didn’t play differently than the first two games of the series. 

The NBA is a “make-or-miss” league and the Celtics hit their threes. Good for them (I hate the way they play and Boston sports fans). If the Celtics shoot like they did in Game 3, they’ll win the championship. Boston thinks its 3-point-chucking strategy will win them four times in a seven-game series. It’s a soft way of playing that wouldn’t work in any other era of the Association. 

But, NYK will make adjustments and their head coach, Tom Thibodeau, is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA. The Knicks have the personnel to match up with the Celtics, whose starting big, Kristaps Porziņģis, is less than 100%. New York forwards OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges are as good of an answer for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as anyone has in the NBA. 

Plus, Boston refuses to go to the basket, which supports my “soft” strategy theory. The Celtics are 14th in field goal frequency at the rim out of 20 teams in this postseason, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Hence, Boston’s only path to victory is hitting 3-pointers, which you could say about any team. 

Also, the Knicks are up 2-1 in this series without playing a good game yet. You’d think, or at least I do, that they’ll have a good shooting performance once in this series. Lastly, if New York can get this game into “clutch time” (when there is a 5-point margin with five minutes left), then Jalen Brunson can steal the game. 

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Golden State SF Jonathan Kuminga hitting a meaningless 3-pointer with 5.1 seconds remaining to cover +5.5 in Minnesota’s 102-97 Game 3 win epitomizes my shi**y NBA postseason betting last week. I won my first four bets from Monday to Tuesday, then ended last week on a six-game losing skid. 

Anyway, the Warriors are done winning in this series after stealing Game 1. T-Wolves PF Julius Randle has successfully replaced Towns as Anthony Edwards‘ No. 2. Julius put up a triple-double Saturday with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists. His bully-ball style is perfect against this small Golden State team. 

Furthermore, the Timberwolves are outscoring the Warriors 18.7-12.7 in second-chance points per game (PPG) and 50.7-39.3 in paint PPG this series. Minnesota’s size and athleticism are overwhelming Golden State. Finally, the T-Wolves are a better 3-point shooting team, especially without Steph Curry, who might return for Game 6 if the Dubs can make it that far. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.