NBA Playoff Showdowns: Which Dark Horse Will Upset Favorites in Pacers-Cavs and Nuggets-Thunder Game 5s?

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are slowly shedding their doubleheader days, and honestly, can anyone blame the casual fan? Once we hit the conference finals, it’s just one game a day to digest—and for many OutKick readers, that probably sounds like a relief. “Good, the NBA sucks anyway,” they mutter while scrolling. But here’s the twist: even if you’re not a hoops diehard, the sports calendar outside basketball tends to feel like a barren wasteland until football kicks back in. So, why not savor the postseason while it’s alive and kicking—and maybe even turn a quick buck off it? The series we’re eyeballing features pace-heavy, elite sharpshooters lighting it up from deep, defying the usual “bet unders after Game 5” wisdom. And with a 34-point per game assassin like Donovan Mitchell pushing through injury, this could get wild. Plus, if Nikola Jokić wakes up from his funk, that Oklahoma City series might just explode when we least expect it. All in all: a perfect storm for some savvy wagering before the playoffs slow to a crawl. Care to dive deeper? LEARN MORE.

The days of doubleheaders in the 2025 NBA Playoffs are winding down. We are still in the conference semifinals, but once we reach the conference finals, it’s only one NBA game a day. I know most OutKick readers are thinking, “Good, the NBA sucks anyway”. 

Nevertheless, post-basketball, sports are awful until football starts and there are fewer things to bet on. Even the most anti-NBA person agrees. Say what you will; I’ll enjoy the NBA postseason while it’s here and try to profit from it. 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

Usually, you want to bet Unders in the playoff series from Game 5 on. However, 101.0 is the average pace per game in this series and these are elite 3-point shooting teams. They have a combined 12-5 Over/Under record in these playoffs. The Over has cashed in three of the four games this series and there were 230 points in the lone Under. 

Furthermore, even though the last two games have been blowouts, these teams combined for 230 and 238 points. This is crazy because blowouts are where Overs die with one team trying to dribble out the clock and the other giving up. Well, between fouling late and these teams’ styles, a close game should help the scoring late. 

Lastly, Cavs All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell left Game 4 early with an injury but participated in shootaround for Game 5 Tuesday morning. But, since Cleveland’s season is on the line, Mitchell will play through his injury and will score 30+ points. After all, he is averaging a series-best 34.0 points per game (PPG). Donovan doing his thing will give his teammates open looks.  

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After correctly betting the Over 226 in Denver’s 121-119 Game 1 victory, I’ve whiffed on my two bets for Games 2-3. Hence, maybe I’m not the one to listen to about Game 5, or maybe you should just fade me. Either way, the Nuggets are 3-1 against the spread in this series and three games have been down to the wire. 

Also, this series is tied despite Nikola Jokić shooting just 39.1% from the field and 21.4% from behind the arc. Granted, Oklahoma City’s defense is the best in the NBA and has been insane in this series. But, eventually, Jokić will tear OKC apart, as he did in the series opener. So, if these games are nail-biters with The Joker playing poorly, what happens when he plays well?

The market has adjusted the totals but not the sides. Game 1’s total was 229.5 and the Thunder were -10.5 home favorites, while 221 is Game 5’s total with OKC laying -10.5, again. Since the sportsbooks (“market”) project fewer points to be scored, Oklahoma City’s spread should be lower, too. Perhaps this is “sucker logic,” but taking +10.5 with the best player in the world seems smart. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.