Insider Picks and Shocking Outsiders Poised to Shake Up the 2025 PGA Championship Betboards

Since I started seriously following golf a few years back—both as a fan and a bettor—the PGA Championship has always held a special place in my heart as the most electrifying major on the calendar. Think about it: Justin Thomas clinching the 2022 title in a playoff, Brooks Koepka slipping past Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler two years ago, and Xander Schauffele finally shaking off the jitters by outlasting Bryson DeChambeau and Hovland just last year. It’s almost like the PGA Championship writes its own drama, round after round. Now, the 2025 edition is heading back to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina—a course that’s as tough and long as any major setup you’ll find. Of course, Quail Hollow isn’t just tough; it’s a place where history echoes, from Thomas’s first major win in 2017 to the grind of the Wells Fargo Championship over the years. But here’s the kicker—there’s a noticeable chasm between the front-runners and the rest this time around. Scheffler sits at +425, Rory McIlroy at +500, and Bryson DeChambeau’s odds have tightened to +900, making them clear horses to back. Yet, I can’t help but wonder… with all the aches and swings in form, who’s really poised to handle the pressure and the protracted battle Quail Hollow demands? As someone who’s wrestled both wins and losses this season—down a bit in the bankroll but still fired up—I’m carving out my bets with a mix of sharp favorites and sneaky value plays, bouncing between proven talent and hungry contenders who might just surprise. After all, isn’t the PGA Championship where dreams are made and broken under Carolina’s blazing summer sun? Let’s dig into the guts of this sprawling field, the quirks of Quail Hollow, and what makes these odds tick—because, trust me, this major always has a few punches left in it. LEARN MORE.

Since becoming a regular golf fan and bettor a few years ago, the PGA Championship has been the most exciting major. Justin Thomas won the 2022 PGA Championship in a playoff. Brooks Koepka beat Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler by two strokes two years ago. Xander Schauffele got the monkey off his back by out-dueling Bryson DeChambeau and Hovland last year. 

The 2025 PGA Championship heads to a familiar place: Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. It has hosted the 2017 PGA won by Thomas and the Wells Fargo Championship (now sponsored by Truist) since 2003. Quail Hollow is your standard major-type venue with difficult scoring conditions and extremely long. 

As I wrote Monday, there is a gulf between the top three betting favorites for the 2025 PGA Championship and the rest of the field. Scottie is +425, two-time PGA champion, and 2025 Masters champion, Rory McIlroy is +500, and DeChambeau has been bet up from the mid-teens to +900 at DraftKings. Jon Rahm is the fourth betting favorite at +1800. 

After losing -3.19 units (u) at last week’s Truist Championship, my 2025 PGA TOUR bankroll fell to -2.03u. I hit back-to-back winners with Rory at the Masters and JT at the 2025 RBC Heritage but have cooled off since. My budget for the 2025 PGA Championship is 3.41u for picks to win and 3.25u for top-5, -10, and -20 finishing position bets. 

The odds are via Oddschecker.com at the time of writing. 

We all know DeChambeau is top-three off the tee (OTT) in the world, up there with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy. In fact, Bryson has surpassed Jon Rahm as the third-best golfer in the world behind those guys. Yet, people might not realize how well DeChambeau putts. 

He’s gained 7.0 and 6.9 strokes putting in his last two visits to Quail Hollow, per Fantasy National. Granted, that was in 2018 and 2021 where DeChambeau finished fourth and T9, respectively. But, that wasn’t a fluke. Bryson has gained strokes on the greens in his last four starts, including at the Masters 2025, and five of his seven career PGA Championships. 

DeChambeau was the runner-up at last year’s PGA Championship, T4 two years ago, and T4 in 2020. He was T6 at the 2024 Masters, T5 at this year’s Masters, and won the 2024 U.S. Open. Essentially, Bryson has been the best LIV Tour player in the majors even though he and Koepka have both won a major since joining LIV. 

Also, two of the crossover courses to Quail Hollow are Winged Foot and Bay Hill Club & Lodge, where DeChambeau won the 2020 U.S. Open and the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Finally, he’s gained strokes with his irons in six of his seven PGA Championships, which have a specific type of layout annually. 

People are writing off Niemann because his best major finish is T16 at the 2023 Masters. But the Chilean is only 26 years old and playing well entering the PGA Championship. Niemann has four international wins since December 2024, including three on the LIV Tour and the Asian Tour’s PIF Saudi International. 

This is the perfect place for Niemann to win his first major and, with his talent, he is winning at least two majors. Joaquin has three starts at Quail Hollow: A missed cut in 2018, T38 in 2019, and T18 in 2021. Again, he was only 21 on his last visit to Quail Hollow. Plus, the PGA Championship favors golfers with plus-distance OTT and long-iron specialists, which is Niemann’s game. 

Originally, I wasn’t going to bet Matsuyama because he’s been all over the place since winning The Sentry 2025 in January. I had him on my betting card last week at the Truist, and he was fifth heading into the final round before melting down. Then I saw the viral video of Hideki practicing at Quail Hollow in a downpour and said: “Yup, I’m back in”. 

Matsuyama is my favorite golfer and my girlfriend and I walked with him in the third round of The Genesis Invitational last year. After he finished his round, we passed Hideki as we were leaving Riviera Country Club. He was going to the driving range to work on his swing. Hideki ended up shooting a final round 62 (-9) and winning The Genesis by three strokes. 

Seeing Matsuyama grinding over putts in the rain lets me know he’s jacked up for this major. And he should be. Hideki was one stroke off the lead after 54 holes at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and finished T5. He’s gained at least +3.3 strokes tee-to-green on the field in all six starts at Quail Hollow. 

It’s supposed to be in the mid-to-high 80s in Charlotte this weekend. Hence, Quail Hollow will become firmer and faster and Hideki will get more rollout on his drives, which makes up for his lack of distance OTT. Matsuyama is an elite long-iron player with one of the best short games in the world, so he can compete anywhere.

This is just a “value bet”. Anytime I see Brooks with odds of +4000 or higher, it’s an auto-bet. Koepka is a five-time major champion and a three-time winner of the PGA Championship in 2018-19 and 2023. His other two majors are the 2017-18 U.S. Opens. With that in mind, Brooks dominates U.S. Open and PGA Championship courses. 

We are getting a good price on Koepka because he isn’t in the greatest form. He missed the cut at the Masters by shooting +5 on the last two holes of the second round. But, he’s gained strokes on approach in six consecutive starts and with his driver in five straight, including the Masters. Since you can win at Quail Hollow without a good short-game, I love Brooks at these odds.  

Hovland has sucked most of this season, but he sucked last year too, and still finished third at the 2024 PGA Championship. In fact, Viktor won a tournament this year, the Valspar Championship, at another ball-strikers’ course. His best finish last season before the PGA Championship was T19 at The Genesis. Yet, his odds for the 2024 PGA Championship were +4000. 

Furthermore, Hovland was T3 at Quail Hollow in 2021 and T24 last year, so he’s played well here. Chipping is the least important skill for Quail Hollow, which is good for Viktor because he is terrible around the greens. Most of the approach shots are from 175+ yards out. Hovland is first on TOUR this season on approach shots from 175-200 yards and 27th from 200+ yards. 

I just wanted a longshot on my 2025 PGA Championship betting card. I’m also betting a 0.25u on HARRIS ENGLISH TOP-20 (+400) with ties at BetMGM. English has three T18 finishes or better in his last four starts (T18 at the Houston Open, T12 at the Masters, and T11 at the Truist), and won the Farmers Insurance Open in February at Torrey Pines, another comp course to Quail Hollow. 

Despite being average in distance OTT, English can compete on these longer tracks because he has good course management and is a nasty putter. Per Ron Klos from Betsperts, Harris has the fourth-highest rate in this field of putts made inside 15 feet at Quail Hollow. Ultimately, if the winning score of the 2025 PGA Championship is -12 or worse, English can get to that number. 

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DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM have finishing position bets “including ties,” which is important because “dead heat scoring” in PGA TOUR betting is terrible and will cost you money. 

This is the best bet in the sport since Schauffele has been full-time on the PGA TOUR. Xander has 16 top-10 finishes in 31 career majors. He’s finished inside the top 10 of every major since last year and all three rounds of the 2024 FedExCup Playoffs. This includes wins at the 2024 PGA and 152nd Open Championships. 

Schauffele missed time at the beginning of this season with a rib injury and hasn’t reached the peak of his powers, yet. Nevertheless, he has been in the top 20 in four straight starts, with a T8 at the Masters. Lastly, Xander was second, three strokes ahead of third, in the last two Wells Fargo Championships at Quail Hollow in 2023-24. 

Besides Rory and Scottie, JT has been the best golfer on TOUR this year. He is third in total strokes gained this season, behind McIlroy and Scheffler, and has six top-10s in 11 starts. Thomas got his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship at the 2025 RBC Heritage last month and backed it up with a T2 at the Truist in his following start last week. JT won his first major, the 2017 PGA, at Quail Hollow. Enough said. 

According to Fantasy National, Rose has the most strokes gained over the last five PGA Championships. Rose finished T6 last year, T9 two years ago, T13 in 2022, T8 in 2021, and ninth in 2020. He’s been the runner-up in the past two majors, too. Rose lost to Rory in a playoff at the Masters 2025 and was T2 at the 152nd Open Championship last year. You need to beat up the Par 5s at the majors and Rose is second in this field for Par 5 scoring over the 36 rounds at the majors, per Fantasy National. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.