Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 1: Can Underdogs Shock the Odds in This High-Stakes Showdown?

There’s a certain electricity in the air when two juggernauts from the Western Conference collide — and that’s exactly what’s happening this Thursday night at Oklahoma City’s Paycom Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves, sitting at a solid 49-33 record, are poised to take on the seemingly unstoppable Thunder, who boast a remarkable 68-14 season. We’re talking Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals; a stage where legends can be made or dreams shattered. After a dominant 125-93 win over Denver in a decisive Game 7 — with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lighting it up for 35 points and Alex Caruso’s tenacious defense leading the charge — Oklahoma City is primed for a gritty showdown. But let’s not overlook Minnesota’s edge with extra rest and momentum after dispatching the Warriors and Lakers in relatively swift fashion.

This series promises more than just statistics and box scores. It’s a tale of stamina versus skill, rest versus relentless pursuit. The Timberwolves have proven they can hold their own on the road with a 24-17 record, while the Thunder’s home-court dominance has been near flawless lately. There’s tension in the air, history in the making, and plenty of angles to explore — from betting lines to player form, from tactical matchups to expert predictions. So, buckle up—it’s going to be a fascinating night for basketball aficionados everywhere.

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The Timberwolves are currently 24-17 on the road with a point differential of 5, while the Thunder have an 8-2 record in their last ten games at home. We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.Oklahoma City closeout Denver in Game 7 at home, 125-93 behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s 35 points and exquisite defense from Alex Caruso and company. The Thunder will have a quick turnaround with a few days off to host the Timberwolves who last played on May 14.Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports’ Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day NBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Game details & how to watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder live today

• Date: Thursday, May 22, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM EST
• Site: Paycom Center
• City: Oklahoma City, OK
• Network/Streaming: ESPN

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Game odds for Timberwolves vs. Thunder

On Thursday, May 22, the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) and Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are all set to square off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

• Odds: Timberwolves (+245), Thunder (-305)
• Spread: Thunder -7.5
• Over/Under: 215.5 points

– Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
– Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
– Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
– Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)Listen to the Rotoworld Basketball Show for the latest fantasy player news, waiver claims, roster advice and more from our experts all season long. Click here or download it wherever you get your podcasts.

Expert picks & predictions for Thursday’s Timberwolves vs. Thunder game

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes the Thunder in 7 games, but is fading their team total in Game 1:

The latest odds as of Thursday:
I like the value of +370 to +400 on the Thunder to win in seven games compared to a gentleman’s sweep of 4-1 for +300 (the favorite). I lean toward OKC 4-2 for +475 as my second choice.Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!Minnesota beat Golden State in five games after Steph Curry went down with an injury in Game 2. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers in five games over the first round, so Minnesota has a clear rest advantage. The Timberwolves won four-straight games to close out the Warriors series, but it’s worth noting that both OKC and Minnesota are 1-1 in Game 1’s this postseason.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Timberwolves & Thunder game:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Minnesota Timberwolves at +7.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 215.5

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Timberwolves vs. Thunder on Thursday

• Oklahoma City and Minnesota are 1-1 ATS and on the ML in Game 1’s this postseason
• Minnesota has four straight games and is 4-1 on the road this playoffs
• Oklahoma City is 5-1 at home in the playoffs
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31 or more points in three straight games
• Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle combined to average 58.8 PPG in the second round

“Oklahoma City doesn’t have any favors with limited rest as they take on Minnesota in the Conference Finals. The Thunder are almost -400 favorites to win the series and while they’ve been the best team in the West all year — there is a chance Minnesota gets a game or two in the first four. With a little over a week of rest for Minnesota and OKC playing seven games in a grind of a series, I like the Thunder’s Team Total Under 111.5 for Game 1. The Timberwolves held the Lakers to 95 points and the Warriors to 99 points in their two Game 1’s. I would consider Minnesota ML as teams that likely cover win and that’s the side I lean.”That gives the Timberwolves an implied team point total of 103.5, and the Thunder 111.5