MLB Power Rankings 2025: Which Surprising Teams Are Primed to Dominate and Which Are Doomed?

Every new MLB season is a fresh canvas, isn’t it? No matter how you paint your hopes and fears after the previous year’s disasters or triumphs, deep down, “hope springs eternal” rings true for every fan who dares to dream. Remember how the Kansas City Royals flipped the script from a dreadful 56-106 in ’23 to a solid 86-76 last season, shocking even the Orioles? Or how insanely the Texas Rangers transformed from underdogs in ’22 to 2023 World Series champs? This begs the question — who’s prepping their comeback story in 2025, and could the Los Angeles Dodgers’ offseason hustle really keep them perched at No. 1 all year, despite missing out on Juan Soto? Forget the chatter from the peanut gallery; we’re crunching the numbers with our TRACR-powered supercomputer. This isn’t your regular “expert opinion” — it’s a monthly, data-fueled rollercoaster of predictions breaking down each team’s true prowess through normalized metrics, raw value leaders, and strength of schedule. So, buckle up — because these power rankings don’t just tell you who’s on top; they show you why. Curious to see where your team stands in this electrifying race? LEARN MORE.
TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).

To help us sort out where clubs rank heading into the new season, our projection model is providing us data-backed predictions for 2025. So our power rankings are not Joe Expert’s opinion. They are based on actual data through a model that incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule and more.

Who will be make this year’s big turnaround? And will the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers spend the entire season at No. 1 after seemingly signing everyone not named Juan Soto in the offseason?

The post MLB Power Rankings: Where Every Team Stands Heading Into the 2025 Season appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Keep in mind our TRACR rankings will shift constantly throughout the month. You can always find up-to-date ratings and projections on our season-long predictions page and our raw value leaders on our advanced leaderboard.

There’s a feeling that no matter how bad last season was, everything can change in the year ahead. Just last season, the Kansas City Royals jumped from a 56-106 record in 2023 to an 86-76 mark and a series win over the Baltimore Orioles. And the year before, the Texas Rangers went from a 68-94 finish in 2022 to a 90-72 finish and a 2023 World Series title.

With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing our MLB power rankings based on our TRACR-powered season-long projections every month throughout the 2025 season.

We’re also including each team’s raw value leader from last season (qualifiers only). Raw value+ (RV+) examines how a hitter performs throughout each pitch of an at-bat rather than just the end result, while raw value- (RV-) does the same from a pitcher’s perspective. The league average is 100, with the higher score, the better for hitters and the lower, the better for pitchers.

Opta Analyst’s MLB Power Rankings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (TRACR: 1.39)

• 2024 Record: 98-64
• 2024 Final Ranking: 11th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 12/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2024 RV Leaders: Shohei Ohtani (200.1)/Jack Flaherty (89.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 92.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 28.2%

2. New York Yankees (1.14)

• 2024 Record: 94-68
• 2024 Final Ranking: 3rd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 4/Pitching & Defense No. 9
• 2024 RV Leaders: Aaron Judge (207.8)/Nestor Cortes (90.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 90.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 27.3%

3. New York Mets (0.89)

• 2024 Record: 89-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 15th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 5/Pitching & Defense No. 24
• 2024 RV Leaders: Francisco Lindor (142.6)/Luis Severino (87.6)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 71.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 11.5%

4. Atlanta Braves (0.84)

• 2024 Record: 89-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 2nd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 17/Pitching & Defense No. 1
• 2024 RV Leaders: Marcell Ozuna (168.8)/Chris Sale (61.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 78.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 16.0%

5. San Diego Padres (0.72)

• 2024 Record: 93-69
• 2024 Final Ranking: 13th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 11/Pitching & Defense No. 14
• 2024 RV Leaders: Jackson Merrill (137.5)/Dylan Cease (75.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 69.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 10.3%

6. Houston Astros (0.61)

• 2024 Record: 88-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 4th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 6/Pitching & Defense No. 10
• 2024 RV Leaders: Yordan Alvarez (170.0)/Framber Valdez (72.5)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 78.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 13.4%

7. Kansas City Royals (0.60)

• 2024 Record: 86-76
• 2024 Final Ranking: 9th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 15/Pitching & Defense No. 5
• 2024 RV Leaders: Bobby Witt Jr. (168.1)/Cole Ragans (76.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 74.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 12.7%

8. Arizona Diamondbacks (0.60)

• 2024 Record: 89-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 16th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 2/Pitching & Defense No. 29
• 2024 RV Leaders: Ketel Marte (153.7)/Brandon Pfaadt (94.5)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 49.9%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 6.1%

9. Baltimore Orioles (0.57)

• 2024 Record: 91-71
• 2024 Final Ranking: 8th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 3/Pitching & Defense No. 17
• 2024 RV Leaders: Gunnar Henderson (134.2)/Corbin Burnes (76.4)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 63.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 8.6%

10. Philadelphia Phillies (0.53)

• 2024 Record: 95-67
• 2024 Final Ranking: 1st
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 7/Pitching & Defense No. 3
• 2024 RV Leaders: Kyle Schwarber (140.6)/Zack Wheeler (63.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 57.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 9.1%

11. Seattle Mariners (0.52)

• 2024 Record: 85-77
• 2024 Final Ranking: 17th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 28/Pitching & Defense No. 2
• 2024 RV Leaders: Cal Raleigh (122.3)/Logan Gilbert (79.0)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 78.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 14.0%

12. Milwaukee Brewers (0.50)

• 2024 Record: 93-69
• 2024 Final Ranking: 6th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 10/Pitching & Defense No. 8
• 2024 RV Leaders: William Contreras (130.7)/Freddy Peralta (86.3)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 58.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 7.4%

13. Cleveland Guardians (0.44)

• 2024 Record: 92-69
• 2024 Final Ranking: 7th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 8/Pitching & Defense No. 11
• 2024 RV Leaders: Jose Ramirez (118.6)/Tanner Bibee (98.8)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 64.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 9.2%

14. Chicago Cubs (0.34)

• 2024 Record: 83-79
• 2024 Final Ranking: 18th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 21/Pitching & Defense No. 6
• 2024 RV Leaders: Seiya Suzuki (123.4)/Shota Imanaga (90.1)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 51.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 6.0%

15. Detroit Tigers (0.17)

• 2024 Record: 86-76
• 2024 Final Ranking: 21st
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 22/Pitching & Defense No. 15
• 2024 RV Leaders: Riley Greene (117.6)/Tarik Skubal (64.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 51.0%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 6.7%

16. Boston Red Sox (0.09)

• 2024 Record: 81-81
• 2024 Final Ranking: 14th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 9/Pitching & Defense No. 16
• 2024 RV Leaders: Rafael Devers (132.6)/Kutter Crawford (95.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 28.0%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 3.2%

17. Cincinnati Reds (0.02)

• 2024 Record: 77-85
• 2024 Final Ranking: 12th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 16/Pitching & Defense No. 4
• 2024 RV Leaders: Spencer Steer (107.8)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 26.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 2.2%

18. San Francisco Giants (-0.03)

• 2024 Record: 80-82
• 2024 Final Ranking: 19th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 13/Pitching & Defense No. 23
• 2024 RV Leaders: Matt Chapman (125.8)/Logan Webb (116.0)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 21.8%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.5%

19. Minnesota Twins (-0.13)

• 2024 Record: 82-80
• 2024 Final Ranking: 5th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 1/Pitching & Defense No. 18
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Carlos Santana (110.2)/Bailey Ober (80.5)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 20.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.7%

20. St. Louis Cardinals (-0.23)

• 2024 Record: 83-79
• 2024 Final Ranking: 23rd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 20/Pitching & Defense No. 19
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Paul Goldschmidt (120.6)/Sonny Gray (87.0)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 13.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.2%

21. Tampa Bay Rays (-0.30)

• 2024 Record: 80-82
• 2024 Final Ranking: 25th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 27/Pitching & Defense No. 20
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Yandy Diaz (132.7)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 18.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.1%

22. Toronto Blue Jays (-0.34)

• 2024 Record: 74-88
• 2024 Final Ranking: 22nd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 18/Pitching & Defense No. 22
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (165.2)/Kevin Gausman (112.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 13.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.1%

23. Texas Rangers (-0.35)

• 2024 Record: 78-84
• 2024 Final Ranking: 10th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 14/Pitching & Defense No. 7
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Corey Seager (158.4)/Nathan Eovaldi (98.1)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 14.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.7%

24. Pittsburgh Pirates (-0.47)

• 2024 Record: 76-86
• 2024 Final Ranking: 20th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 19/Pitching & Defense No. 13
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Bryan Reynolds (125.0)/Mitch Keller (110.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 7.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.3%

25. Washington Nationals (-0.70)

• 2024 Record: 71-91
• 2024 Final Ranking: 24th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 26/Pitching & Defense No. 21
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Luis Garcia Jr. (130.8)/MacKenzie Gore (98.8)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 3.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.1%

26. Athletics (-0.92)

• 2024 Record: 69-93
• 2024 Final Ranking: 27th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 25/Pitching & Defense No. 26
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Brent Rooker (139.3)/JP Sears (107.4)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 3.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.2%

27. Los Angeles Angels (-1.17)

• 2024 Record: 63-99
• 2024 Final Ranking: 26th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 23/Pitching & Defense No. 27
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Taylor Ward (127.5)/Tyler Anderson (104.7)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

28. Miami Marlins (-1.21)

• 2024 Record: 62-100
• 2024 Final Ranking: 29th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 29/Pitching & Defense No. 28
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Jesus Sanchez (122.2)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

29. Colorado Rockies (-1.60)

• 2024 Record: 61-101
• 2024 Final Ranking: 30th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 24/Pitching & Defense No. 30
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Ryan McMahon (106.1)/Ryan Feltner (106.3)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

30. Chicago White Sox (-2.02)

• 2024 Record: 41-121
• 2024 Final Ranking: 28th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 30/Pitching & Defense No. 25
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Andrew Vaughn (98.7)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

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“Hope springs eternal” is a popular phrase for fans everywhere heading into a new season.