2025 NCAA Tournament Shockers: Which Underdog Could Upend March Madness?

Ever wonder what would happen if we crunched the NCAA men’s basketball tournament numbers not once, not twice, but thousands of times? Well, we did just that — and the results are as thrilling as a last-second buzzer-beater. This season’s drama, from jaw-dropping upsets to sheer dominance over the top-ranked teams, isn’t letting up anytime soon. Using TRACR, a savvy metric that adjusts a team’s points per possession for everything from roster strength to conference toughness, we’ve dissected every inch of the bracket to reveal who’s likely to dance all the way to the Final Four. Trust me, these insights might just up your March Madness game — or at least give you some bragging rights at the water cooler. Ready to dive into the madness? LEARN MORE

We’ve simulated the NCAA men’s basketball tournament thousands of times to find the chances of teams making it to each round in March Madness. Here’s everything we learned.

From full court buzzer beaters to dominance against the No. 1 team in the country, this season has been full of drama.

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament should continue that trend.

We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It’s a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.

In addition, TRACR is powering our new Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket that you can sign up for to compete in March Madness! You get points based on the inverse of the likelihood that a team has to advance to each round.

For example, TRACR gives Texas A&M a 70% chance of beating Yale in the first round. If you pick Yale and the Bulldogs pull off the upset, you get 70 points. Michigan State has a 17% chance of reaching the Final Four – if you pick the Spartans to win their region and they do, you would get 83 points for that Elite Eight game alone! No purchase necessary.

Before you make your picks, here are a few thoughts about the tourney that TRACR backs up.

SEC Leads All

In 2011, the Big East set the record for the most qualifiers in an NCAA Tournament with 11 (remember the old Big East? Miss those days). The SEC blew that out of the water with a record 14 teams this year.

With the expansions of the SEC and Big Ten, it should come as no surprise. The Big Ten got an impressive eight teams in as well. Still, the SEC showed its dominance with two No. 1 seeds, two 2 seeds, one 3 seed and one 4 seed. The average rating for an SEC team by TRACR is 27.9, by far the best for a conference.

The Big Ten is second (22.8), followed by the Big 12 (22.7), Big East (18.6), ACC (14.7) and Mountain West (9.5).

Auburn leads the SEC with the No. 1 overall seed, and rightfully so – the Tigers went a crazy 16-5 in Quad 1 games. However, they’ve hit a bump in falling to 28-5 following a 27-2 start. That is something to consider before riding the No. 1 overall seed to the title.

South Region: Probability of Reaching the Final Four

1. Auburn (30.5%)
2. Michigan State (16.6%)
3. Iowa State (14.6%)
4. Texas A&M (8.0%)
5. Michigan (5.3%)
6. Marquette (5.3%)
7. Louisville (4.6%)
8. Ole Miss (3.8%)
9. San Diego State/North Carolina (3.4%)
10. UC San Diego (2.9%)
11. New Mexico (1.9%)
12. Creighton (1.8%)
13. Yale (0.8%)
14. Lipscomb (0.4%)
15. Bryant (0.2%)
16. Alabama State/St. Francis (PA) (<0.1%)

The hottest team in NCAA Division I may be the SEC tournament winner, Florida. The Gators, who also received a top seed, beat Missouri, Alabama, and Tennessee to win their first conference tournament title since 2014.

Remember that 2011 Big East season? The winner of that conference tournament, Connecticut (cardiac Kemba!), went on to win it all.

History may repeat itself with Florida.

West Region: Probability of Making the Final Four

1. Florida (34.8%)
2. St. John’s (16.1%)
3. Texas Tech (12.5%)
4. Maryland (11.6%)
5. Missouri (6.2%)
6. Kansas (5.1%)
7. UConn (3.4%)
8. Colorado State (2.7%)
9. Arkansas (2.2%)
10. Oklahoma (2.0%)
11. Memphis (1.9%)
12. Drake (0.9%)
13. Grand Canyon (0.5%)
14. Omaha (0.1%)
15. UNCW (0.1%)
16. Norfolk State (<0.1%)

A (Somewhat) Surprising Bubble

While the SEC had a record 14 teams make the NCAA Tournament, TRACR was surprised about one of the selections. That was Texas, which enters the Big Dance with a 19-15 record after going 6-12 in conference play.

The Longhorns’ TRACR is quite close to other bubble teams like Xavier, Indiana and West Virginia, but the overall record and loss to another bubble team, Ohio State, had TRACR leaving them out of the tournament. A win against Texas A&M in the SEC tournament might have pushed them in.

Still, social media was less upset at the tournament selection committee putting Texas in the 68-team field and more upset with Xavier and North Carolina getting in. Xavier went 1-9 in Quad 1 play and North Carolina went 1-12 in such games… yikes. The Musketeers also went 3-7 against the NCAA Tournament field and the Tar Heels just 2-10.

TRACR would have given the slight edge to Indiana, which went 4-13 in Quad 1 games and 3-10 against the NCAA Tournament field. Not great, but slightly better. North Carolina ranks higher in TRACR and went 8-2 over its final 10 games, so TRACR would have selected the Tar Heels over Xavier.

Who Has the Toughest Road?

In almost every NCAA Tournament, there is a region that has a higher average TRACR than the rest, suggesting that the committee put too many top teams in one region. This season, it’s actually pretty even across the board.

Good work, committee?

The East Region has the highest average TRACR by 11 seeds or higher at 30.6, while the Midwest (29.8), West (29.3) and South (28.4) are close behind.

The difference between the East and the South is somewhat large for an aggregate with at least 11 teams, but not enough that one team has a disadvantage.

The East takes the top in large part due to Duke’s impressive performance this season. The No. 1 team in TRACR has some questions after star freshman Cooper Flagg went out with an injury against Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament.

Still, the Blue Devils won the tournament, and coach Jon Scheyer has said Flagg will be available for the tourney. Only time will tell if he’s fully healthy and can lead Duke to the Final Four.

East Region: Probability of Making the Final Four

1. Duke (34.4%)
2. Alabama (28.2%)
3. Arizona (11.2%)
4. Wisconsin (6.5%)
5. BYU (3.8%)
6. VCU (3.5%)
7. Oregon (3.1%)
8. Saint Mary’s (3.0%)
9. Mississippi State (2.2%)
10. Baylor (2.2%)
11. Vanderbilt (1.1%)
12. Liberty (0.6%)
13. Akron (0.1%)
14. Montana (0.1%)
15. American/Robert Morris (<0.1%)
16. Mount St. Mary’s (<0.1)

While the East ranks top, the Midwest could have difficult matchups. Houston got a tough draw with the possibility of playing Gonzaga in the second round. The Bulldogs won the West Coat tournament and have ranked in the top 10 in TRACR for quite some time.

This is not Mark Few’s best team, but it’s one of the more experienced, having 78.5% of its scoring coming from seniors. Gonzaga averages 86.6 points while Houston allows only 58.5. Something will have to give.

Midwest Region: Probability of Making the Final Four 

1. Houston (25.4%)
2. Tennessee (19.6%)
3. Gonzaga (18.3%)
4. Kentucky (8.4%)
5. Illinois (6.8%)
6. Purdue (5.2%)
7. Clemson (5.1%)
8. UCLA (4.1%)
9. Texas/Xavier (2.3%)
10. Georgia (1.5%)
11. Utah State (1.5%)
12. McNeese State (0.8%)
13. High Point (0.5%)
14. Troy (0.3%)
15. Wofford (0.2%)
16. SIUE (<0.1%)

Trust the Top Seeds and Pick the 12-5 Upset

There is a 22.2% chance that at least one of Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida make the Final Four. There is a 62.6% chance the Final Four will have at least one 1 seed or 2 seed as well. The 1 and 2 seeds have a significant edge over the field, per TRACR.

Highest Average TRACR by Seed

• 1 seeds – 43.2
• 2 seeds – 36.7
• 3 seeds – 31.9
• 4 seeds – 31.5
• 8 seeds – 30.2
• 7 seeds – 28.4
• 6 seeds – 28.3
• 5 seeds – 26.0

The 1 and 2 seeds have a much higher TRACR rating than the rest of the field with a small variance between the four teams. The 3 and 4 seeds, meanwhile, have about the same TRACR.

The 8 seeds get a bump thanks to Gonzaga being in the top 10, but Louisville was also expected to be higher than an 8 seed. Who knows what two-time reigning champion UConn might have in store as well.

The big thing to notice here are the 5 seeds. This might be a good year to go ahead and pick the 12 seeds. Michigan got a tough draw in UC San Diego, which ranks 32nd in TRACR after going 30-4 in its first eligible season for the NCAA Tournament.

Colorado State (35th in TRACR) ranks higher than Memphis (51st), and McNeese State is looking to upset after falling in the first round last tournament. Liberty has been a 12 seed threat before. The average TRACR rating for the 12 seeds is 22.6.

Check out our predictions page for live probabilities throughout the NCAA Tournament.

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