MLB Power Rankings: Uncover the Surprising Teams Dominating Early Season and Shaking Up the Standings!

Trending: Reliever Yimi Garcia is one of only seven pitchers who still have a 0.00 ERA in at least 10 innings pitched.
Trending: Reliever Jared Koenig ranks sixth in the majors with a 17.1 RV- among those with at least 10 innings pitched.

Trending: Is it more about stuff than command? Despite his early struggles, Aaron Nola leads the majors with a 131.8 command+.

Keep in mind our TRACR rankings will shift constantly throughout the month. You can always find up-to-date ratings and projections on our season-long predictions page and our raw value leaders on our advanced leaderboard.

Trending: Among starting pitchers, Hunter Greene is No. 1 in baseball with a 149.8 whiff+ (league average is 100).

Trending: In each of the last six games, Washington’s starting pitcher has had at least five strikeouts while allowing no more than two runs. That is tied for the longest such streak in
Expos/Nationals history, done three times previously.

To help us sort out where clubs sit in our power rankings, our projection model is providing us data-backed predictions for the 2025 season. So our rankings aren’t Joe Expert’s opinion; they’re based on actual data through a model that incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule and more.

Opta Analyst’s MLB Power Rankings

1. Chicago Cubs (TRACR: 2.05)

• 2025 Projected Record: 99-63 (entering Tuesday)
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 14th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 1/Pitching & Defense No. 9
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 95.0%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 28.4%

Trending: Landen Roupp sits fifth in MLB with a 119.8 command+ among those with at least 20 innings pitched.

2. San Diego Padres (1.47)

• 2025 Projected Record: 99-63
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 5th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 11/Pitching & Defense No. 1
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 94.5%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 24.6%

Trending: The Padres lead the majors in overall team raw value (RV) at 131.6. The league average is 100.

3. New York Yankees (1.36)

• 2025 Projected Record: 96-66
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 2nd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 2/Pitching & Defense No. 16
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 98.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 30.3%

Trending: The Athletics have allowed 10+ runs four times this season, most in the AL and tied for second in MLB – only the Marlins (five) have more. The A’s have a 5.89 ERA at home this
season, second highest in MLB (Orioles, 6.39).

4. Milwaukee Brewers (1.17)

• 2025 Projected Record: 90-72
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 12th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 5/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 54.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 7.0%

Trending: Sunday’s 1-0 loss to the Dodgers marked the Rangers’ first one-run loss this season; their 6-1 record in those games leads MLB. The Rangers are 13-3 this season when conceding four or fewer runs compared to 0-6 when allowing at least five.

5. Cincinnati Reds (1.15)

• 2025 Projected Record: 89-73
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 17th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 4/Pitching & Defense No. 13
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 49.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 5.1%

Trending: Chicago picked up its first road win of the year on Sunday but still dropped three of four in Boston, its 27th road series loss in 29 tries since the start of last season (two wins). The only other team with fewer than six road series victories in that time is Colorado with three.

6. San Francisco Giants (1.10)

• 2025 Projected Record: 94-68
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 18th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 6/Pitching & Defense No. 7
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 79.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 10.2%

Trending: Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal ranks fifth in the majors in total RV among pitchers at -6.3.

7. Detroit Tigers (1.09)

• 2025 Projected Record: 97-65
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 15th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 10/Pitching & Defense No. 3
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 31.6%

Trending: The Red Sox won three of four against the White Sox, hitting at least one home run in each contest. Boston is 12-3 in 2025 when hitting at least one home run (tied for best record in MLB with the Mets), compared to 1-8 when it does not.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks (0.99)

• 2025 Projected Record: 90-72
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 8th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 3/Pitching & Defense No. 18
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 53.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 5.2%

Trending: The Diamondbacks overcame a 1-0 first-inning deficit against the Cubs on Sunday for their eighth comeback win this season. That ranks second in MLB behind the Dodgers (nine).

9. New York Mets (0.98)

• 2025 Projected Record: 95-67
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 3rd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 16/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 91.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 14.4%

Though it’s still early in the 2025 MLB season, there have been plenty of surprises to date.

10. Los Angeles Dodgers (0.58)

• 2025 Projected Record: 90-72
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 1st
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 11/Pitching & Defense No. 11
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 54.4%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 4.2%

Trending: The Mariners won two of three in Toronto, giving them four straight series wins and a 9-3 record over its last 12 games after a 3-7 start to the year. Their 9-3 record since April 7 is the second best in MLB (Cleveland, 10-3).

11. Seattle Mariners (0.56)

• 2025 Record: 88-74
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 11th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 9/Pitching & Defense No. 14
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 84.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 13.1%

Trending: Colorado’s 3-1 win over Washington on Sunday evening snapped its eight-game losing streak, its longest since June 2023. The Rockies were 3-17 prior to that win, tied for third
worst in NL history through 20 games and the worst since the 2022 Reds also started 3-17.

12. Houston Astros (0.39)

• 2025 Projected Record: 88-74
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 6th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 21/Pitching & Defense No. 4
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 83.0%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 10.1%

With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing our MLB power rankings based on our TRACR-powered season-long projections every month throughout the 2025 season.

13. Tampa Bay Rays (0.25)

• 2025 Projected Record: 82-80
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 21st
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 20/Pitching & Defense No. 8
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 45.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 4.3%

Trending: Atlanta starters have posted the fifth-worst RV- as a group at 120.9. Only the Brewers, White Sox, Orioles and Rockies have been worse.

14. Philadelphia Phillies (0.13)

• 2025 Projected Record: 83-79
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 10th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 7/Pitching & Defense No. 20
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 15.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.5%

TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).

15. Atlanta Braves (0.10)

• 2025 Projected Record: 81-81
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 4th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 19/Pitching & Defense No. 15
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 10.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.6%

Ever wonder how the early shake-ups in the 2025 MLB season stack up against those preseason predictions? Well, strap in because our supercomputer, powered by the TRACR system, is crunching the numbers behind the scenes to deliver monthly power rankings that cut through the hype and gut feelings. Detroit Tigers leading the AL? Atlanta Braves stuck at the bottom of their division? And who exactly saw the Giants roaring at 15-8 this April? These aren’t just eyebrow-raising stories—they’re reflections of real-time data blended with advanced metrics like run expectancy and league-adjusted performance. Our TRACR model factors everything from win-loss records to strength of schedule, normalizing stats against environmental quirks to serve up the most accurate picture of where every team truly stands. Just a heads-up: these rankings will keep evolving as the season unfolds, but for now, let’s dive into what the numbers are shouting about the 2025 MLB landscape. LEARN MORE.

16.Toronto Blue Jays (0.03)

• 2025 Projected Record: 83-79
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 22nd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 23/Pitching & Defense No. 10
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 57.5%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 4.5%

Trending: Cedric Mullins owns a 1.055 OPS this year. Only two center fielders in Orioles history have started a season with a higher OPS through the first 20 games of a season: Brady Anderson (1996, 1997) and Adam Jones (2009, 2015).

17. St. Louis Cardinals (-0.16)

• 2025 Projected Record: 75-87
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 20th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 12/Pitching & Defense No. 23
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 1.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

Trending: Right-hander Hunter Brown, who is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA in five starts, sits third in the AL with a total RV of -6.1.

18. Cleveland Guardians (-0.21)

• 2025 Projected Record: 82-80
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 12th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 17/Pitching & Defense No. 19
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 46.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 2.6%

Trending: Kansas City snapped a six-game skid with a 4-3 win in Detroit on Sunday and returns home after a 2-8 road trip. The Royals hit .196 over those 10 games and are batting .210 overall this season, third worst in MLB ahead of the White Sox (.196) and Pirates (.206).

19. Texas Rangers (-0.49)

• 2025 Projected Record: 82-80
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 23rd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 12/Pitching & Defense No. 6
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 45.6%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 2.2%

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For much more coverage, follow our social accounts on X, Threads, Bluesky and Facebook.

20. Baltimore Orioles (-0.56)

• 2025 Projected Record: 73-89
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 9th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 6/Pitching & Defense No. 28
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 5.4%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.2%

Trending: Slugger Pete Alonso is third in baseball with a 254.6 BIP+ among those with at least 40 plate appearances.

21. Minnesota Twins (-0.65)

• 2025 Projected Record: 73-89
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 19th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 22/Pitching & Defense No. 21
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 5.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.1%

Trending: Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a combined 1.57 ERA in the second inning this season. The only MLB team lower in that inning is the Mets (1.17).

22. Kansas City Royals (-0.67)

• 2025 Projected Record: 76-86
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 7th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 29/Pitching & Defense No. 5
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 13.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.7%

Trending: The Guardians have the fourth-worst team RV (77.9), ahead of only the Brewers (58.9), White Sox (53.1) and Rockies (50.1). For the league, 100 is average.

23. Boston Red Sox (-0.85)

• 2025 Projected Record: 72-90
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 16th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 14/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 3.9%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.1%

Trending: Tampa Bay has been blanked three times in its last five games, including twice in the four-game set against the Yankees. Only the Pirates (four) have been shut out more often. The
Rays are 8-0 this season when scoring at least five runs compared to 1-13 when they don’t.

24. Los Angeles Angels (-0.92)

• 2025 Projected Record: 74-88
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 27th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 22/Pitching & Defense No. 24
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 6.0%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.2%

Trending: Among those with at least 40 plate appearances, Aaron Judge leads the AL with a total RV of 11.7.

25. Athletics (-0.94)

• 2025 Projected Record: 72-90
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 26th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 18/Pitching & Defense No. 25
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 4.2%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.1%

Trending: The Cubs have blown a lead in 11 games this season, second in MLB (Royals, 12) and have seven losses in those games – tied for the most in the majors.

26. Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.01)

• 2025 Projected Record: 67-95
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 24th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 28/Pitching & Defense No. 17
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: Minnesota was swept in its three-game series at Atlanta, totaling nine runs and 18 hits over the three contests. The Twins rank 27th in the majors in batting average (.211), on-base percentage (.282) and OPS (.621), and 25th in runs per game with 3.41.

27. Miami Marlins (-1.22)

• 2025 Projected Record: 67-95
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 28th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 15/Pitching & Defense No. 29
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.2%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: The Angels have won their first two home series of the season, something they have not done since 2019. The last time Los Angeles won its first three home series of a campaign was in 2006.

28. Washington Nationals (-1.42)

• 2025 Projected Record: 66-96
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 25th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 25/Pitching & Defense No. 26
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: Ace Sandy Alcantara owns a 7.27 ERA in four starts despite limiting opponents to a .219 batting average. It hasn’t helped that he’s walked four batters in two of those outings.

29. Chicago White Sox (-2.06)

• 2025 Projected Record: 58-104
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 30th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 30/Pitching & Defense No. 24
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: Though the Cardinals have the 11th-worst total RV (97.1) in MLB, they own the seventh-best mark in starting pitching RV at 91.4 (the lower, the better for pitching).

30. Colorado Rockies (-2.42)

• 2025 Record: 50-112
• 2025 Preseason: 29th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 26/Pitching & Defense No. 30
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

The post MLB Power Rankings: Which Teams Have Made an Early Rise to the Top? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Trending: Los Angeles blanked Texas twice over the weekend and has three shutouts in its last nine games – only three teams have more than three shutouts this season. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 1.99 ERA over their last six games after posting a 6.49 mark over the previous nine.
How about the Detroit Tigers being tied for the best record in the American League heading into Tuesday’s action? Or the Atlanta Braves being tied for last in the National League East? Who had the San Francisco Giants at 15-8 on April 22?