Inside the 2025 NFL Forecast: Surprising Standouts and Shocking Upsets Revealed by Opta Analyst

Ever wonder which NFL teams will surprise us in 2025 and which might quietly stumble out of the gate? Well, while some squads will land just about where you expect, our latest projection model from Opta Analyst throws up some eyebrow-raising predictions. With free agency, the draft, and schedule all settled, we’ve dialed up 1,000 simulations—factoring in player skill, coaching twists, and even home-field mojo—to forecast records, playoff chances, and Super Bowl dreams. So, buckle up—because this season’s lineup might just flip the script on last year’s best and worst, leaving fans asking, “Did that really just happen?” Dive into the key takeaways and find out where your team is headed before training camp even kicks off. LEARN MORE

Though a few teams finish around where most people would expect in Opta Analyst’s 2025 season projection model, there are some surprising landing spots among the best and worst teams from last season.

It’s never too early to start thinking about the how the 2025 NFL season might play out.

True, we haven’t even gotten to training camp yet. But with free agency, the NFL Draft and schedule release in the books, we have more than enough to put our projection model to work.

Can Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions? Will Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC again? Where will your team end up?

Well, we crunched the numbers, ran 1,000 simulations and determined each team’s projected record and chances to make the playoffs, winning their division and reaching the Super Bowl.

Each club earned a “team score,” which derived from player ratings, roster depth charts and coaching changes. We also looked at home-field advantage for each team based on its scoring output at home versus the road compared to other teams.

From there, teams were evaluated head-to-head to determine likely wins and losses. This ultimately helped us determine playoff probability, divisional results and more. The simulations include projected ties, so it’s important to note that expected win-loss records may not add up to exactly 17 games for all teams.

This year’s results were very interesting to say the least. While a few teams finished around where most people would expect, there were some surprising landing spots among the best and worst teams from the 2024 season.

Here are some of the key takeaways from our 2025 NFL predictions (as of June 25 – all projections subject to change on our NFL predictions page.)

1. The Jaguars Will Be the Surprise Breakout Team

Every year, a team comes out of nowhere to shock the league. Last year, it was the Washington Commanders behind NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. In 2023, it was the Houston Texans. 

This year, our model points to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is second in projected wins (10.4), behind only the Buffalo Bills and ahead of the Chiefs and Eagles. They also have a 76.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to our projections (as of June 25).

After a 4-13 collapse last season, the Jaguars look poised for a sharp rebound behind a strong core and an upgraded coaching staff.

It starts with head coach Liam Coen, who in 2024 improved the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive success rate by almost 5% compared to the average of the play-callers before him since 2016. He also comes from the Sean McVay tree that’s produced other good head coaches like Kevin O’Connell, Mike McDaniel and Matt LaFleur.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggled in 2024, battling through injuries and poor production, but he has the skills to improve this year. Coen has proven he can elevate any already-solid quarterback into a highly productive one after his work with Baker Mayfield a year ago.

Lawrence also will have a rising star in Brian Thomas at wide receiver as well as rookie two-way sensation Travis Hunter. Last year, Thomas finished 13th in burn rate among 39 WRs with at least 100 targets at 63.2%. You want to know who finished second? Mike Evans in a Coen offense.

Meanwhile, Thomas also finished third in yards per target and tied for second in burn yards per route run. He’s primed for a big season.

While the offense should be solid, the defense is a mystery. It remains mostly the same, albeit with a new coordinator in Anthony Campanile. His experience runs the gamut from his time on the Miami Dolphins under coaches like Brian Flores, Josh Boyer and Vic Fangio to his 2024 season with the Green Bay Packers under Jeff Hafley as a linebackers coach and run game coordinator.

2. The Lions Go From Super Bowl Contender to Borderline Playoff Team

The Detroit Lions took some pretty big hits this offseason, losing both their offensive and defensive coordinators. They also should have the second-hardest schedule in 2025.

Despite finishing with the seventh-best team score overall, Detroit is projected to have the seventh-best record in the NFC and a 56.5% chance to make the playoffs. That puts the Lions behind the Packers and Chicago Bears for the division and squarely on the playoff bubble for a wild-card spot.

The schedule issues are likely the biggest cause of concern, as the Lions open the season with two division games, then face the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Chiefs and Buccaneers before a Week 8 bye. They’ll also take on the Commanders, Eagles and Los Angeles Rams – all of whom were playoff teams a year ago.

Losing coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn is another problem that could affect Detroit’s ability to compete at such a high level this year. Four other teams have lost both their coordinators since 2004, and all four saw dips in their record the following year.

Three of the four have gotten worse on both sides of the ball, too. 

For reference, almost all of the new coaches for these teams were internal hires, except the defensive coordinators for the Los Angeles Chargers and Eagles. Meanwhile, the Lions internally promoted defensive coordinator Kelvin Shepard and hired offensive coordinator John Morton externally.

The biggest woes for the Lions last season were their injuries, and the biggest ones should be back fully healthy in 2025 – none bigger than Aidan Hutchinson. They also didn’t take major free agency hits on either side of the ball that they weren’t able to fix in the draft or on the open market.

3. Mike Tomlin’s Remarkable Streak Comes to an End

Our model predicts that Mike Tomlin’s 18 consecutive seasons with at least a .500 record for the Pittsburgh Steelers will end in Aaron Rodgers’ first season.

Pittsburgh has the fifth-lowest probability to make the playoffs (17.4% as of June 25) in 2025, ahead of only the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints. Pittsburgh’s projected 7.0 wins also rank only slightly better than those aforementioned teams as well as the Tennessee Titans.

Rodgers might be a good fit for Arthur Smith’s offense, but Pittsburgh relied too heavily on defense last year and still lacks a clear identity. The offensive line also allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate and tied for the fifth-highest sack rate at 45.3% and 8.4%, respectively, yet hasn’t undergone any major offseason adjustments.

The Steelers also lost five of their final seven regular-season games in 2024 before a wild-card beatdown at the hands of the Ravens. It could be another rough finish with a home date against the Ravens in Week 18 this season.

It would take another Tomlin miracle for this team to turn into a playoff contender.

4. The Bills Look Like the Team to Beat

Buffalo has the highest probability of making the playoffs (92.7%) by a wide margin. The next closest teams are the Chiefs, Jaguars, Buccaneers and Eagles, all of which are below 77%.

The Bills also have the highest chance to win the Super Bowl (14.8%) but are only projected to have about one more win than the Chiefs and Jaguars.

Continuity is the key for Buffalo. The team has the reigning NFL MVP in Josh Allen as well as several key offense and defense players returning in 2025.

The Bills have gone heavy on defensive acquisitions this offseason, too. The team’s first five draft picks were on the defensive side of the ball, including first-round CB Maxwell Hairston. Buffalo also spent money on multiple free agents like OLB Joey Bosa and DE Michael Hoecht (who is suspended for six games for PEDs) as well as on extensions for LB Terrel Bernard, DE Greg Rousseau and CB Christian Benford.

Their path is made easier by the AFC East. Our model predicts none of the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and New England Patriots will win more than eight games in 2025.

5. Who Are the New Playoff Teams?

There are new playoff teams every year, and 2025 will be no different. Our model predicts the four new teams to be the Bears and San Francisco 49ers from the NFC and the Jaguars and Bengals from the AFC.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. The 49ers have the easiest strength of schedule and should be healthy after an injury-riddled 2024 season. The Bears looked solid in 2024 but couldn’t find wins because of mostly bad coaching. Now they’ll have a new head coach in ex-Lions coordinator Ben Johnson, a brand-new offensive line and new rookie weapons for quarterback Caleb Williams in first-round tight end Colston Loveland and second-round receiver Luther Burden.

We already mentioned the Jaguars, while the Bengals would have easily made the playoffs if their defense could stop anyone. Cincinnati is returning its entire offensive core led by Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, so the hope is that new defensive coordinator Al Golden can wrangle a good showing together.

As for the teams they replace, most are all still on the bubble for playoff contention. The Texans, Rams and Lions (who made the playoffs a year ago) have between a 43-57% chance to make the playoffs. The only 2024 playoff team that doesn’t is the Minnesota Vikings, who have a 26.1% chance after replacing QB Sam Darnold with J.J. McCarthy despite a revamped offensive line and the same quality offensive weapons. 

The NFL is defined by its volatility – every season delivers unexpected twists, new stars, and sudden failures. While no projection model can fully account for injuries, unsung heroes or coaching breakthroughs, the data gives us a strong sense of where things stand heading into 2025.

The top teams are relatively the same, with Buffalo appearing poised to leap from perennial contender to the league standard. Others like Jacksonville look ready to flip the script, while the Lions may be in for a reality check after last year’s high and teams like the 49ers could rebound from an off year.

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