How Aaron Rodgers’ Unexpected Arrival Could Reshape the Steelers’ 2024 Season and Beyond

How Aaron Rodgers’ Unexpected Arrival Could Reshape the Steelers’ 2024 Season and Beyond

Maybe the Steelers should have done more to land Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins or draft one of the quarterbacks they passed on in April. But for most of the offseason they seemed content with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers will have a good alpha receiver to throw to, after the Steelers traded for DK Metcalf and signed him to a four-year, 2 million extension. The addition of Metcalf made George Pickens redundant, and the Steelers seemed tired of Pickens’ act, so he was traded to the Cowboys. Getting a No. 1 receiver has been an issue for the Steelers for a few seasons, and they did the right thing landing one. In late June, there was a surprising trade, with the Steelers acquiring cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith from the Dolphins for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and a late-round draft pick swap. The Smith addition seemed a bit duplicitous because the Steelers were fine at tight end with Pat Freiermuth, and Ramsey for Fitzpatrick doesn’t seem like a huge upgrade either. But the Steelers obviously thought they got better. The other moves were not splashy. Cornerback Darius Slay Jr. and linebacker Malik Harrison were signed and should help the defense. There were no other expensive signings. The Steelers had two top-100 draft picks and used them on defensive tackle Derrick Harmon and running back Kaleb Johnson. Harmon can help a run defense that was shredded by the Ravens in the playoffs, and Johnson has a shot to beat out Jaylen Warren for lead back duties or get a significant share of a committee.Rodgers wasn’t as bad as you remember last season. Over his last 10 games he had 18 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 97 rating. Yet, history says that any 42-year-old quarterback (he turns 42 on Dec. 2) is at extreme risk of falling off a cliff. Over the first 105 seasons of NFL football, one player has bucked that trend. Rodgers is perhaps the most talented quarterback in history, so perhaps he can be the second quarterback ever to have a decent season at his age, but the Steelers are playing a risky game.AdvertisementAdvertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

There were seven NFL teams that had a PROE (pass rate over expectation) of less than -5.2% last season. Five of those teams had an elite running back (Ravens, Falcons, Packers, Colts, Eagles), and the Titans wanted to hide their quarterback. The Steelers were the other run-heavy team, at -6.3%. In 2023, the Falcons, coached by current Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, had by far the lowest PROE in the NFL at -9.7%, 3.2% lower than any other team. Atlanta, with Smith, was second-to-last in 2022.The Steelers are stuck in a rut. They’re cycling through unappealing options at quarterback, and that seems likely to continue next offseason. They have a coach with a Hall of Fame level résumé but many Steelers fans want him out because he hasn’t won a playoff game over the past eight seasons. The Steelers have not been bad enough to bottom out and draft a permanent answer at quarterback, and they haven’t been good enough to make a postseason run either. Rodgers doesn’t seem like he’ll make the Steelers that much worse or that much better. It’s just another season of the same, probably just creating a fuzzy memory for years down the road of “Oh right, Rodgers had that one season with the Steelers at the end.”

Burning question

How much longer will the Steelers defense maintain its level?

In other words, Smith wants to run the ball. He has never had a quarterback quite like Aaron Rodgers though. It will be an interesting dynamic to track. Rodgers has his preferences, such as little pre-snap motion and a very slow tempo. He has also never been a caretaker in a run-heavy offense (the Jets were fourth in PROE last season at 2.3%). Either Smith or Rodgers will have to evolve, and the relationship will be interesting to watch.

Best-case scenario

Advertisement

Nightmare scenario

“We didn’t bring Aaron in here and sign DK for all that money to go run the wishbone,” Smith told the Pittsburgh media. “You try to play to the strengths of your team.”

The crystal ball says

He wants to get in one (?) more season, and do so for Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin.

Post Comment

RSS
Follow by Email