Aaron Rodgers Faces Steelers in High-Stakes Clash – Why He Insists It’s “Not a Revenge Game”

Can a legendary quarterback finally conquer the ghost of his past? Aaron Rodgers, now 41 and donning the Pittsburgh Steelers jersey, faces a curious destiny Sunday Night Football—his first ever battle against the Green Bay Packers, the team he dominated for 18 unforgettable seasons yet never defeated as an opponent. What does it feel like to face your former comrades after such a storied separation? Rodgers insists it’s “not a revenge game,” though you have to wonder if that competitive fire is secretly kindling beneath the surface. With both squads leading their divisions and a potent mix of playoff aspirations and pride at stake, this showdown promises high stakes and intriguing narratives. From the Steelers’ newfound rushing strength to the Packers’ ironclad defense and Jordan Love’s maturation under center, the clash teeters on a knife’s edge. Will Rodgers rewrite history and savor a first-ever victory over his old team, or will Green Bay’s favored edge hold firm? The drama unfolds under the bright lights of Sunday night — and trust me, you won’t want to blink. LEARN MORE

The 41-year-old Rodgers will get a chance to take down his old NFL team on Sunday Night Football when he faces Green Bay for the first time.

Packers vs. Steelers: The Key Stats

The Packers are favored to beat the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, with Green Bay winning 57.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
Pittsburgh and Green Bay are among the best red zone teams in the league. The Packers rank second with a 60.3% success rate in the red zone, while the Steelers are first with a 32.4% success rate allowed inside the 20.
Last season, the Packers allowed a passer rating of 76.5 on attempts more than 20 yards downfield. This season, quarterbacks have a 22.9 rating on deep passes against them.

Aaron Rodgers has accomplished just about everything over the course of his decorated NFL career.

He’s been a four-time NFL MVP, Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP, 10-time Pro Bowl selection and four-time league leader in passer rating. He has 157 career regular-season wins as a starter, and he has beaten 31 teams.

But Rodgers has never beaten the Green Bay Packers.

The now 41-year-old quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers will get a chance to take down his old team on Sunday Night Football when he faces the Packers for the first time.

The saga of Rodgers’ departure from Green Bay played out in plain view of the public, with the Packers drafting Jordan Love in the first round and Rodgers eventually asking to be traded.

Despite the pairing’s tumultuous end, Rodgers downplayed the possibility that he was seeking vengeance this week, and he spoke wistfully of his 18 seasons with the Packers.

“I don’t have any animosity toward the organization,” Rodgers said Wednesday. “Obviously, I wish that things had been better in our last year there, but I have a great relationship with a lot of people still in that organization. This is not a revenge game for me. I’m just excited to see some of those guys and be on Sunday Night Football again.

“Absence makes the heart grow fonder, maybe. I have a lot of great memories from my time there. A lot of great interactions with fans over the years. … I grew up there. I spent 18 years there from 21 to 39, so I’m thankful for my time there.”

Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur returned the kind words, telling reporters that he remembered having a “great relationship” with Rodgers in their four years together.

While the public statements have been diplomatic, all parties involved have proven to be extremely competitive, and a win against a former colleague could prove to be extra sweet.

Bragging rights and more will be on the line Sunday night, with both teams leading their divisions and keeping an eye towards the postseason picture.

The Opta supercomputer has the Packers (4-1-1) making the playoffs in 92.8% of simulations, while the Steelers (4-2) reached postseason play in 75.4% of simulations.

Two of the most decorated franchises in pro football, the Steelers and Packers, have combined to win 10 Super Bowls, and the teams faced off in Super Bowl XLV. Green Bay won that matchup – and Rodgers was named Super Bowl MVP – but history may not be on the Packers’ side on Sunday night.

The Packers have lost their last six games in Pittsburgh, with their last road win against the Steelers coming in 1970, when the starting quarterbacks were Bart Starr and Terry Hanratty. A rookie Terry Bradshaw relieved Hanratty and threw 20 passes.

In that 1970 meeting, the teams combined for 10 turnovers, including seven interceptions – a far cry from the efficient and ball-secure offenses that will be on display in 2025.

Pittsburgh Steelers Green Bay Packers game-preview

Steelers’ Key to Victory vs. Packers

Pittsburgh is coming off a 33-31 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night of Week 7. And while dropping a game to a downtrodden division foe stings, the Steelers should come into Sunday’s game with a rest advantage.

In recent weeks, the Steelers have found a running game that was almost completely absent at the start of the season, rushing for a season-high 147 yards against the Bengals.

The Packers are coming off a six-sack performance in the team’s 27-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week, so it will be crucial for the Steelers to stay balanced.

While Pittsburgh’s ground game has improved in recent weeks, the Packers are allowing just 76.5 rushing yards per game – the second fewest in the league.

The Steelers, however, could find an advantageous matchup with outside zone or “stretch” running concepts by attacking Green Bay’s edge defenders and giving running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell more time to read blocks.

Pittsburgh has run outside zone concepts 42 times this season, the fourth most in the league, and it represents 37.2% of the team’s running game. The Steelers are gaining 4.9 yards per play on outside zone concepts and 2.9 yards per carry before contact. For inside zone concepts, those numbers drop to 4.4 yards per carry overall and 2.6 yards per carry before contact.

The Steelers could pair outside zone with play-action bootleg, a concept they have used heavily to involve their tight ends. Tight ends have 36.7% of Pittsburgh’s receptions, which is the highest rate in the NFL.

The Packers, meanwhile, have allowed a league-high 50 receptions by tight ends. The Steelers are likely to target Pat Freiermuth or Darnell Washington in the red zone when Rodgers looks to celebrate a passing touchdown against his former team.

Packers’ Key to Victory vs. Steelers

As for Rodgers’ replacement in Green Bay, Love has continued to grow in his third year as the starter.

Love has built the reputation of being a bit of a gun-slinger, with ESPN analyst and former NFL head coach Rex Ryan giving some harsh analysis this week, even after Love led a game-winning touchdown drive against the Cardinals.

“Do I trust Jordan Love? No, I do not,” Ryan said. “In the biggest moments, he’ll turn it over.”

Over the previous two seasons, Love has been among the biggest risk-or-reward passers in the league. But he appears to be more secure with the ball this season while increasing his yards per attempt to 8.2. That’s his highest average since being named the starter.

One area where Love has improved the most is his decision-making against the blitz. He has a 128.0 passer rating against the blitz this season, fourth-best among qualified quarterbacks, and up from 90.4 last season.

That’s a critical stat heading into a matchup with a Pittsburgh team that brings extra rushers on 38.8% of snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Love has always been willing to give his young receivers a chance to compete for a contested catch, but his ball placement has improved, especially in high-pressure situations. Love had a below-average catchable ball rate of 73.8% against the blitz last season, but that number has jumped to 82.2% in 2025.

One pivotal point in Sunday’s game could be when the Packers turn to play-action passing.

The Packers have a 50.0% success rate on play-action concepts, with an average depth of target of 14.4 yards. The Steelers, however, have allowed just 3.6 yards per play against play-action passes, the lowest in the NFL and far below the league average of 8.3.

The success of those play-action attempts could depend on how well Green Bay is running the ball. Josh Jacobs has become the Packers’ workhorse back, and his 18.5 carries per game rank third in the league.

He also has eight rushing touchdowns, but he’s averaging a middling 3.73 yards per carry.

The Packers may be wise to run Jacobs more often out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers), with Pittsburgh matching 11 personnel with nickel 98.1% of the time.

Jacobs is averaging 4.48 yards per carry out of 11 personnel, and the Packers have a 47.9% success rate on rushing plays in three-wide receiver sets.

Steelers vs. Packers Prediction

The Packers have been a trendy Super Bowl pick since acquiring Micah Parsons in the offseason, and his three sacks against the Cardinals last week had people buzzing.

The Opta supercomputer also loves the Packers, giving them a league-high 20.7% probability of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Steelers are no easy matchup, however, as they own the AFC’s third-highest probability of winning the Super Bowl at 4.98%.

Despite Pittsburgh’s home-field advantage, the Opta supercomputer gives Green Bay a slight edge, with the Packers winning Sunday night’s showdown in 57.9% of simulations.

Follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Packers vs. Steelers Predictions: Aaron Rodgers Looks to Win What He Claims is “Not a Revenge Game” appeared first on Opta Analyst.