Alex Bregman Stuns Baseball World with Massive Cubs Deal: What This Means for the Future of the MLB and Fantasy Leagues

Saturday night shook up the MLB free agency landscape in a big way with Alex Bregman inking a five-year, $175 million deal with the Chicago Cubs. This move isn’t just another signing—it’s a major piece falling into place. Bregman, soon to turn 32, secures himself a full no-trade clause and a contract without opt-outs, which gives him notable stability. The Cubs, savvy as ever, managed to sweeten the pot with roughly $70 million in deferred payments, according to Ken Rosenthal from The Athletic, softening the financial impact. This acquisition signals the Cubs’ intent to reinforce their infield with top-tier contact hitters and sharp strike zone awareness—qualities that Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner all share. The ripple effect will touch not only roster dynamics but also fantasy baseball strategies, as players adjust to new roles and ballpark variables come into play. For fans and analysts alike, it’s a captivating shift that will be dissected all season long. LEARN MORE

One of the biggest remaining dominoes of MLB free agency fell on Saturday night when third baseman Alex Bregman agreed to a five-year, $175 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. The soon-to-be-32-year-old gets a full no-trade clause and a contract with no opt-outs. Although, the deferred money, about $70 million, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, makes the contract a little more palatable for the Cubs.

Exact net present-day value is not known, but expected to be in range of $30M-$31M per season, source says.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 11, 2026

What does this mean for the Cubs?

The Cubs love players with a strong sense of the strike zone and good contact ability. They could have an entire infield of players like that with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner.

Bregman has a career strikeout rate of 13.4% and had a 91.5% zone contact rate last season, another elite rate. In his only season with the Red Sox, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 with 18 home runs, 64 runs scored, and 62 RBI in 114 games as he battled a quad injury. That’s strong production for the Cubs in the middle of their lineup, and Bregman’s contact ability (along with Swanson and Hoerner) will help to offset some of the swing and miss from guys like Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki.

Bregman also played solid defense again at third base, posting an Outs Above Average of 3 and an OAA of 8 in 2024 with the Astros. Him on the left side of the infield next to Swanson is a huge boost for the Cubs’ pitching staff and the team as a whole.

There are some injury concerns here with Bregman. He has not played over 145 games in either of the last two seasons and has been under that mark in three of his last five. He will be 32 years old when the contract begins, and since there are no opt-outs and a full no-trade clause, Bregman will be the Cubs’ third baseman until he’s 37 years old. That’s a bit of a gamble.

The other domino that will fall from this is what the Cubs do with Matt Shaw. The 24-year-old was one of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball heading into last season, but struggled to a .226/.295/.394 slash line with 13 home runs and 17 steals in 126 games. Shaw is still young and can slide over to second base, so the Cubs could opt to move him there and trade away Nico Hoerner, who hit .297/.345/.394 with seven home runs and 29 steals in 156 games last season.

Hoerner is the better defender and makes far more contact, but he is also signed to a three-year, $35 million contract and doesn’t quite have the upside that Shaw does if everything breaks right for the young Cubs infielder. The team will have to decide whether to roll the dice on the upside and settle for the safe floor in 2026.

Lastly, while this is a great signing for the Cubs, remember that Kyle Tucker remains a free agent. If the Cubs don’t re-sign Tucker, they will essentially be swapping Tucker for Bregman, which is a clear offensive downgrade for this lineup. As a team last season, the Cubs were 5th in runs scored, 6th in strikeout rate, 6th in wRC+, and 7th in OPS. Even without Tucker, they would likely remain a top ten offense thanks to the Bregman signing, but we’d expect a small step backwards.

What does this mean for the Red Sox?

Many people assumed that Bregman would return to the Red Sox, where he was lauded for his leadership and relationship to young stars like Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer. In fact, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the Red Sox offered up to $160 million for Bregman but were simply outbid by the Cubs.

With Bregman off the market, the Red Sox will likely pivot to Bo Bichette, who they would slot in at second base and then keep Marcelo Mayer at third base. In many ways, that would be just as good a move for the Red Sox. Alex Bregman, Bichette is a plus contact hitter with pull-side power and would likely be an above-average defender at second base. Bichette hit .311 last season with 18 home runs and would likely put up 20+ home runs in Fenway Park.

The issue is that many people assume Bichette is destined to land in Philadelphia with his old bench coach, Don Mattingly.

If that were to happen, the Red Sox would need to turn their attention to Eugenio Suarez or trade for Isaac Paredes, who they have been linked to all offseason. They could also perhaps take a shot and trade for Matt Shaw to pair with other young players like Anthony, Mayer, and Kristian Campbell.

Fantasy fallout

On one hand, Alex Bregman is moving from one solid lineup to another. He should be in another good spot for RBI production and runs scored, assuming he hits near the top of this Cubs’ order. On the other hand, this is a clear park downgrade for him. Last season, Bregman posted a 47.4% pull rate while playing his home games at Fenway Park with the Green Monster. He’s now moving to Wrigley Field, which is 40 feet deeper down the left field line than Fenway Park. Over his last three seasons, Bregman has only eight home runs that were NOT on pulled fly balls.

Once you add in the winds that tend to rear their ugly heads at Wrigley, you could see a power decline from Bregman next season. You would be looking at a guy who hits 20-22 home runs while hitting .265-.270 in a good lineup. That’s obviously a solid fantasy asset, but maybe not a game-breaking one.

The other fallout here will be from Matt Shaw or Nico Hoerner, whomever loses their starting position. Right now, it’s too early to make a call on that position battle, but it’s certainly something to watch as the season unfolds.