Are the Chicago Bears Quietly Dominating the NFC? The Shocking Truth Revealed!
The Chicago Bears’ 2025 season reads like a rollercoaster—early setbacks, then an impressive nine wins out of ten that suddenly have them perched atop the NFC standings for the first time since ’06. But here’s the kicker: while wins are piling up, the underlying numbers tell a tale that’s less “dominant powerhouse” and more “scrappy grinder.” With a narrow average margin of victory and stats that rank them mid-pack rather than elite, the question looms large—are the Bears truly for real, or just riding a wave of timely turnovers and clutch plays from Caleb Williams? Let’s unravel how a team can fool the eye, yet maybe not the stats, and what lies ahead as they face a stern finals schedule. Curious? Dive into the layers of Chicago’s intriguing 2025 story.
NFL teams don’t win by accident, and the Bears are doing a lot right on both sides of the ball. But the underlying data isn’t impressive. So are they for real?
The 2025 season has been a wild and surprising one for the Chicago Bears.
After dropping their first two games by a combined 34 points, the Bears have won nine of their past 10 games, including five consecutive victories.
They’ve been rewarded for it, too.
The Bears enter Week 14 as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They haven’t been the No. 1 seed since the 2006 season, when quarterback Rex Grossman led Chicago to the Super Bowl under head coach Lovie Smith.
Chicago’s 2025 quarterback-head coach duo of former No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and first-year head coach Ben Johnson is working well together. The Bears have produced the eighth-best scoring offense in the NFL.
Johnson has also, in some ways, replicated the two-running back attack he had with the Detroit Lions. With D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai leading the way, Chicago ranks second in the league with 153.8 rushing yards per game, behind only the Buffalo Bills (155.7).
However, if you look past their record, the Bears don’t resemble one of the NFL’s elite teams — or even a top team in the NFC. They’re only seventh in the conference in TRACR and below league average in EVE (see below).
Chicago’s margin of victory in those nine wins is just six points, which ranks 30th behind only the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans, who have a combined four wins. That plus-six point differential also ranks 16th among all NFL teams, and is the fewest positive points in the league.
NFL teams don’t win by accident. Johnson and the Bears are doing a lot right on both sides of the ball to stay competitive in every game, and continue to pull off improbable or unlikely wins, including their Week 13 victory over the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
So are the Bears any good? Let’s dig in further.
Mr. Ice Performs in Key Moments
Williams is having a solid, if unspectacular, second season with Johnson at the helm.
While he hasn’t seen the Johnson bump that Jared Goff enjoyed with the Lions, Williams has still looked better, even though his numbers don’t indicate clear development. He’s on pace for more passing yards, more touchdowns and fewer sacks overall.
Williams’ adjusted completion rate (no spikes or throwaways) is surprisingly worse, though, than it was during his rookie season: 67.5% in 2024 versus 61.3% in 2025. That mark is also 28th among 29 quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts this season.
The rest of Williams’ advanced metrics are also relatively flat, except open target rate, which increased by only 3% this season. His situational splits don’t do him any favors, either.
Williams’ numbers are almost identical between early downs and late downs, and his completion rates under pressure vs. no pressure rank near the bottom among his peers. And on passing attempts of at least 10 air yards downfield, Williams’ 40.7% completion rate is 20th among 21 quarterbacks with at least 75 such attempts. Only Cam Ward has a worse rate.
So are the Bears winning because of Williams or despite him? A little bit of both.
While his overall metrics are uneven, Williams wins in the moments that matter the most – in the fourth quarter. He has the Bears tied for the NFL lead with five fourth-quarter comebacks this season. Nine of the Bears’ 34 touchdowns came during those comeback wins, and Williams has scored four of his six fourth-quarter touchdowns in those games.
His most critical leverage point is on third down in the fourth quarter. Since Week 3, Williams is first in completion rate at 81.3% among 33 quarterbacks with at least 10 such attempts on third down in the final quarter. His 87.5% open target rate is also first.
Perhaps even more important: Williams’ pickable pass rate is an impeccable 0.0%.
Williams is also an elite scrambler, both in rushing yards and sack avoidance. His 7.18 yards per scramble is fifth best among 24 quarterbacks with at least 20 scrambles, and his 4.6% sacks per drop back ranks 21st out of 28 quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts. His 10.1% sack per pressure rate ranks 22nd out of that same group.
Williams isn’t losing games for Chicago, and he’s doing what needs to be done in high-leverage moments to keep the team afloat.
Sonic and Knuckles 2.0
The NFL saw the power and might of Chicago’s running game on full display against the Eagles in Week 13, when the Bears rushed for 281 yards. Oddly enough, that wasn’t even a season high for the Bears, who rushed for 283 yards in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9.
This has Johnson’s fingerprints all over it.
The former Detroit offensive coordinator has coached a top-10 rushing success unit in each of the past two seasons, and he’s doing so again in 2025. The Bears’ 39.6% run success rate ranks eighth in the NFL through Week 13, and the 41.3% run success rate since Week 3 ranks fifth.
Where Johnson is making his hay is in schematics. Chicago ranks third in yards before contact at 3.3, giving Swift and Monongai time to hit the lane before a defender meets them.
Looking specifically at Chicago following its Week 5 bye, the numbers get even better: From Weeks 6 to 13, the Bears’ 42.6% run success rate ranks fourth, their 5.2 yards per play ranks fourth and their 3.5 yards per contact ranks fifth.
This is a team built around its running game with good blocking that helps foster quality production. That, in turn, alleviates the pressure on Williams to perform over the course of an entire game and puts focus on precision in areas that require his innate skills.
And really, Chicago has been equally good up front, whether it’s run or pass.
The team ranks eighth in the NFL in run-blocking win rate and sixth in pass-blocking win rate. Right tackle Darnell Wright has been elite in pass blocking with the league’s fifth-best rating at 91.7 behind some big names like Penei Sewell, Kolton Miller, Tristan Wirfs and Lane Johnson.
Capitalizing on Matchups and Turnovers
Much like the New England Patriots this year, the Bears are also a product of their schedule.
Chicago has had the second-easiest strength of schedule so far, facing opponents with a combined win percentage of .376. The Patriots were the only team with an easier path through 13 weeks (.342).
But the Bears have the fifth-toughest remaining schedule, facing teams with a combined .590 win percentage in the final five games of the regular season.
Bad teams turn the ball over more, and almost every opponent the Bears have faced this year has a negative turnover differential. Chicago, meanwhile, leads the league with a plus-17 turnover differential with a league-high 26 takeaways (17 interceptions and nine recovered fumbles). The Bears are also tied for the fifth-fewest giveaways with nine.
This helps explain why their underlying metrics aren’t impressive despite their record.
Chicago is eighth in points scored and sixth in yards, but a lot of that is tied to its top-five run game. The passing offense, meanwhile, ranks mid-table in yards, TDs and success rate.
The defense, which has been ravaged by injuries, has been worse. The Bears rank 25th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, and are in the bottom 10 against both the pass and the run. This unit also allows the 11th-highest run success rate and sixth-highest pass success rate.
Simply put: The Bears aren’t losing games, but they’re not dominating on either side of the ball, either.
The Verdict: The Supercomputer Points to False
When you put all of this together, it makes sense why the Bears are 9-2 with a margin of victory of just six points. They win in the areas that matter most when they matter the most.
Chicago’s positive turnover differential, despite its middling offensive and defensive metrics, opens up avenues to turn clear losses into tight wins. Meanwhile, the running game is so effective that it can systematically wear down defenses and churn clock.
And, when needed, Williams delivers in critical moments and avoids the back-breaking plays – sacks and turnovers – that swing games.
It’s clearly been a winning formula for Johnson and company … so far. Having said all that, the Opta supercomputer isn’t sold.
Though it gives them the third-best playoff probability in the NFC (87.2% as of Thursday), the supercomputer puts the Bears (38.9%) behind the Packers (54.5%) in the division race and gives them the fourth-best chance (8.3%) of going to the Super Bowl behind the Eagles (25.9%), Packers (25.2%) and Los Angeles Rams (13.5%).
The big test for the Bears will come in what looks to be a tough final stretch. It starts with Sunday’s showdown against the rival Packers with first place on the line at Lambeau Field.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post True or False? The Chicago Bears Are the Best Team in the NFC appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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