Battle for the Division: Who Will Rise and Who Will Fall in This Nail-Biting Showdown?

Ever wonder if expanding the Wild Card actually waters down the playoff race or just spices it up with more nail-biting moments? Tonight’s Mariners versus Astros showdown at 8:10 ET is a perfect case study. Both teams are neck-and-neck atop the AL West, but unlike a traditional showdown where the loser might be packing bags, here, a misstep could still leave a contender on the sidelines. The Mariners, quietly reinventing themselves post-trade deadline, have sparked into serious form, while the Astros are battling to maintain their grip on the division lead with one of their finest arms on the mound. It’s a clutch series dripping with playoff implications—and if you love baseball drama, this might just be the weekend’s crown jewel. Ready to see if pitching prowess trumps offensive firepower? Let’s dive in. LEARN MORE

Mariners vs. Astros, 8:10 ET

If the league never switched the Wild Card expansion, one of the two teams in tonight’s game would almost certainly not make the playoffs. That begs the question – is this better, or is it better to have the intensity of this being a crucial series for both teams? I suppose there are more chances for the series to matter in this fashion, since there are more opportunities to enter the playoffs. Either way, we should be excited for this game as the Mariners enter the game against the Astros in a series that could determine the AL West, and potentially leave one of the teams on the outside looking in for the playoffs.

The Mariners are the most restructured team in baseball, considering their moves around the trade deadline. To start the second half of the season, the team was just six games above .500, and since then, they have moved to 15 games above. Specifically, since August 1st, the team has gone 26-17. They are arguably the hottest team in baseball at the moment as well with wins in 11 of their past 12 games. This followed a stretch where they were struggling, losing seven of nine games, Still, they picked the right time to get hot, and they get to face the Rockies for three games after this series. Today, they put Bryan Woo on the hill. Woo is 14-7 for the season with a 3.02 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP. He also is 12th in strikeouts. Woo is a guy who probably won’t get Cy Young consideration, but should at least garner some talk. Woo has been decent for the season on the road with a 3.58 ERA, and has faced the Astros on the road once this season, going six innings allowing two earned runs on 10 hits. The hits are a bit concerning, considering he has allowed 16 in 12 innings to them over his two starts, but he got away with it in the first matchup.

The Astros held onto the division lead for the majority of the season, they are now tied with the Mariners for the first spot. The problem is that because neither has run away with the division, they are now in jeopardy of missing the playoffs altogether. They do have a game up on the last place, so they have a 2.5 game lead on the Guardians, but that isn’t super comfortable considering that you’re facing your biggest competition this week. The Astros have won two more games than they’ve lost this month, and are pretty hot in their own right, winning five of the past six and six of the past seven. Today, they have one of their best pitchers taking the mound, Hunter Brown. Brown is 12-7 for the year and has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Again, he is likely to be a part of the conversation for the Cy Young award, but unlikely to get any substantial votes. He has been good at home this season with a 2.25 home ERA. He also has allowed only three earned runs to the Mariners in two start this season.

This should be the game, and series, of the weekend. If you want playoff baseball early, this is likely where you need to look. The worst thing that could happen for either team is that they get swept, but I’m not thinking that will happen. Both teams are coming into this one hot, so I don’t really think that playing a side is a safe bet. Instead, I think we get the two great pitchers to do their thing here and both teams to be conservative. Take the under in this one.

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