Battle of Titans: Can Chiefs and Jaguars’ Defenses Rewrite the Game’s Destiny?

Ever had one of those weeks where your football picks crash and burn spectacularly, yet somehow you still find a silver lining? Welcome to my week—a whirlwind of busted bets and fleeting triumphs. As the Rams’ loss to the 49ers saw my Circa Survivor hopes evaporate, knocking out a whopping 60% of the field, I found solace in a couple of timely touchdown scorer hits that padded the ledger ever so slightly. Now, with the spotlight turning to tonight’s Chiefs vs. Jaguars showdown at 8:15 ET, I’m itching to turn the tide. The Chiefs have shown flashes—first as underwhelming duds, then as polished contenders—but the Jaguars aren’t exactly pushovers, boasting a defense that bends but rarely breaks. So here’s the question: Will this be a gritty, low-scoring chess match favoring cautious field goals over flashy touchdowns? I’m betting on it going under the total. Let’s see if the punters and kickers get the real workout tonight. LEARN MORE.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars, 8:15 ET

It was a week of highs and lows for me when it comes to football. The lows were that my picks for Outkick were pretty much trash this week. It was going to happen eventually, but a lot of good info was still shared on the Outkick Bets podcast, so hopefully you listened and got some of those winners. The biggest low came Thursday night as the Rams lost to the 49ers, eliminating my Circa Survivor entry. With the Cardinals and Bills also losing, the contest lost something like 60% of entries, which made it both frustrating and a bit more acceptable at the same time. The highs came in the form of me hitting two first touchdown scorers and getting 16.5u on those plays. Tonight, I want to get a winning night with the Chiefs taking on the Jaguars.

The Chiefs have had the tale of two seasons through four weeks. The first two weeks they looked like they were going to struggle this season. As I mentioned on the podcast, it isn’t inconceivable that the Chiefs could be 4-0 right now. In the season opener they dropped the ball against the Chargers, which is probably the truest loss they experienced. Then in Week 2, they dropped a game against the Eagles, in a Super Bowl rematch. I still maintain if Travis Kelce caught the ball instead of tipped it into an interception, the Chiefs probably win that game. In Weeks 3 and 4, the Chiefs were able to get their first two wins of the season against the Giants and the Ravens. Both were significantly easier, and the offense looked much better. The Jaguars are a pretty decent defense, but I don’t think on the same level as the Chargers or Eagles. The Jaguars have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to an opposing running back, but we know the Chiefs are going to attack you through the air, not the ground anyway. This should be a challenge for Kansas City to score regularly, as the Jaguars are also not allowing a ton of touchdowns through the air.

The Jaguars look good so far this year. You could probably make an argument that the team could also be 4-0, considering their one loss was to a Bengals team that lost Joe Burrow during the game. The three wins the Jaguars have had have come at the expense of the Panthers, Texans, and the 49ers. The Panthers are not a very good team and certainly not very consistent. The Texans have a strong defense, but their offense has been brutal outside of yesterday’s game against the Ravens. Last week, they flew across the country to face the 49ers and took them down 26-21. It is a bit hard to figure out what to make of San Francisco. They were injury riddled and won against the Rams, but had their starting quarterback and lost to these Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence will likely have a long night trying to face the Chiefs’ passing defense. Overall, their defense doesn’t give up a ton of options for opposing teams, so there really is no clear path for Jacksonville to score.

This is a game that I don’t have a play for a side. I think this game goes under the total. It is a situation where I see more field goals than touchdowns. The Jaguars tend to bend but not break, and the Chiefs don’t really ever break. I’m not saying that this is going to be a touchdown-less battle, but I do think the punters and kickers will be busy people tonight. Back the under.

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