Big 12 Football 2025: Which Dark Horse Team Could Shock Everyone and Claim the Title?

Imagine a college football conference where the usual suspects have packed their bags, leaving behind an open field ripe for chaos and surprise champions. That’s precisely the kind of rollercoaster Big 12 football has become after the departures of Oklahoma and Texas—no blue bloods, no clear favorites, just raw, unpredictable competition. Last season’s shocker? Arizona State, picked dead last in the preseason media poll, not only snatched the title but also pushed Texas to overtime in the College Football Playoff. Now, with no preseason polls muddying the waters, the Opta supercomputer steps in, armed with its TRACR model, crunching past play data, transfer insights, and strength of schedule to paint a data-driven portrait of what lies ahead for all 16 teams. The question remains: Will another dark horse rise to claim the crown in 2025, or is the chaos only just beginning? Dive into our detailed field guide, loaded with sharp observations, tantalizing predictions, and the kind of stats that make you rethink everything you thought you knew about this unpredictable conference. LEARN MORE.

We reveal our field guide to the most chaotic conference in the country, with notes, observations, and Opta supercomputer snippets for all 16 teams.

The exits of Oklahoma and Texas left Big 12 football without any blue bloods.

That’s generally not good for media rights valuations, but it turns out it’s tremendous for building a conference in which anything could happen any year.

It was fitting that the league’s first post-Oklahoma and Texas season featured the team picked last in the league’s preseason media poll, Arizona State, winning the title and then taking Texas, of all teams, to overtime in the Peach Bowl quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff.

After that, the Big 12 decided not to run a preseason poll anymore, and perhaps that’s good for those of us who try to handicap these teams in the summer. You can’t watch your last-place pick win the league if you didn’t pick anyone to finish last. 

Nevertheless, we persist.

The Opta supercomputer is never fearful of pushing out its preseason predictions. It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.

The Opta supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.

Here’s a preseason field guide to the conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their league TRACR ranking.

1. Kansas State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st (4th OFF, 3rd DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 1st (5th OFF, 3rd DEF)

One scary thing: Will the pass rush hold up without edge rusher Brendan Mott, who had 12 adjusted sacks? My guess is yes: Mott was a six-year developmental project, and K-State returns Chiddi Obizaor (eight adjusted sacks) and Tobi Osunsanmi (six). Someone will have to level up a bit for coach Chris Klieman’s squad, though. 

One exciting thing: Five-star true freshman tight end Linkon Cure, the highest-rated signee in program history. Cure will not start right away, but I’m eager to see if he cracks the lineup as the year goes on. 

Player to watch: It’s all about quarterback Avery Johnson. He’s electric when he’s good and brutal to watch when he’s bad. He suffered last year from a 6.4% dropped-target rate – the highest of any Big 12 passer. Hopefully, Jayce Brown and the receivers will lift him up this year. 

(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)

2. Baylor

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th (7th OFF, 11th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 2nd (3rd OFF, 8th DEF)

One scary thing: The defense gave up a 9.8% explosive play rate, including a 13.7% mark against the pass. Only Oklahoma State was worse among Big 12 teams. Has that been fixed? 

One exciting thing: QB Sawyer Robertson might be the best in the conference, and running back Bryson Washington was a breakout star in 2024, getting nearly 6 yards per carry and 2.6 after contact. 

Player to watch: Tight end Michael Trigg, who should have lots of playmaking opportunities while defenses have night terrors about Washington and receivers Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins. Trigg had 400 yards last year – a lot, though only fifth on the Bears. 

3. Kansas

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th (1st OFF, 12th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 3rd (1st OFF, 13th DEF)

One scary thing: Quarterback Jalon Daniels and All-Big 12 center Bryce Foster both had offseason surgeries, and it’s not clear how healthy either is (especially Foster) heading into camp. The Jayhawks came together well at the end of last year and need to parlay that into a good start. 

One exciting thing: The pass rush looks promising. KU generated an above-average 35.6% pressure rate last season and returns three of its top four pass rushers by adjusted sacks (Dean Miller, Tommy Dunn and DJ Withers). This should be a strong line. 

Player to watch: It’s really all on Daniels, isn’t it? Kansas stunk last year when he couldn’t stop throwing the ball to the other team and got much better once he did. 

Big 12 Projected Records

4. Texas Tech

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th (6th OFF, 15th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 4th (2nd OFF, 12th DEF)

One scary thing: The Red Raiders made a lot of portal moves (more on that shortly) but stuck with QB Behren Morton. He’s solid, and his 80.6% well-thrown rate leads all Big 12 returners. But he may not be a differentiator from the other contenders in the league. We’ll see if Tech’s QB moneyballing works. 

One exciting thing: The very expensive transfer portal class that Tech hopes has it playing for a Big 12 championship come December. I’ll highlight edge rusher David Bailey, who arrived from Stanford after the Cardinal fired their coach in the spring. He had a 31.0% pressure rate for a miserable team last year – a big figure for an every-down rusher.  

Player to watch: New defensive coordinator Shiel Wood. It’s his job to take one of the worst defenses in the conference, integrate several high-end transfers, and make sure it works. 

5. Arizona State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd (3rd OFF, 6th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 5th (4th OFF, 7th DEF)

One scary thing: There’s just one for coach Kenny Dillingham’s team. Cam Skattebo, the running back who was the heart and soul of ASU’s playoff quarterfinal team, plays for the New York Giants now. The Sun Devils will miss him, but Army transfer Kanye Udoh (second-team All-American Athletic last year) is a great backfilling effort. 

One exciting thing: Almost all of your favorite non-Skattebo Sun Devils are back. It’s rare for a conference champion to return this many key players the next year. The group is led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, receiver Jordyn Tyson (who missed the playoff run with an injury) and safety Myles Rowser. 

Player to watch: Udoh, the Army transfer at running back. We know everything else here works. Does the running game stay strong in a post-Skattebo world? 

6. TCU

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd (5th OFF, 4th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 6th (8th OFF, 5th DEF)

One scary thing: This is a good-looking team, but the schedule is brutal. TCU visits Bill Belichick and North Carolina to start, then has a bye and an FCS game, and then gets SMU, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas State and Baylor all in a row, with ASU and K-State on the road. There’s a world where TCU is playing decently and is still 3-4 before a trip to West Virginia on Oct. 25. 

One exciting thing: The quarterback-receiver tandem of Josh Hoover and Eric McAlister is one of the best in the sport. Everything about McAlister points toward a breakout season. 

Player to watch: The Frogs are very high on freshman left tackle Ryan Hughes, who played in four games and took a redshirt last year. TCU allowed the second-lowest pressure rate in the conference (25.7%), and Hughes is the person most responsible for keeping Hoover comfortable again. 

7. BYU

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th (11th OFF, 5th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 7th (10th OFF, 4th DEF)

One scary thing: The summer departure of quarterback Jake Retzlaff (accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit, then found to have violated the school’s honor code) creates an on-field void. Neither backup Treyson Bouriguet nor McCae Hillstead is likely to be a strong option this year. 

One exciting thing: This is one of the best linebacker groups in the country, led by Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly. They combined for 38 run disruptions and 43 stuffs. Both are out of central casting, and they wear numbers 16 (Glasker) and 17 (Kelly), so you can track them as a pair easily.  

Player to watch: Receiver Chase Roberts, who had 854 yards last year. No. 2 receiver Darius Lassiter is gone, and Roberts will have to be a sublime playmaker to elevate whoever’s throwing the ball. 

8. Iowa State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th (9th OFF, 9th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 8th (7th OFF, 9th DEF)

One scary thing: The departures of two of the best wideouts in the country, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. They were more or less ISU’s entire receiving game. 

One exciting thing: ECU transfer Chase Sowell is the most interesting player tasked with replacing some of Noel and Higgins’ production. He was one of the most explosive wideouts in the Group of Five, posting 38 burns on 58 targets and averaging 20 yards a catch. Running backs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama could be fun in the backfield.

Player to watch: Whichever transfer defensive lineman can put the quarterback on the ground. Iowa State doesn’t return a player who had more than one sack, but it has added Yale’s Tamatoa McDonough, who had 6.5 and was second-team All-Ivy League. 

9. UCF

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th (8th OFF, 7th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 9th (11th OFF, 11th DEF)

One scary thing: The defense is made of duct tape and chicken wire, and it will require major growth from a handful of players transferring in from bench spots or lower-level conferences. 

One exciting thing: I’ll cheat the format here, with a potentially exciting thing that is also a reason for concern. The Knights are this year’s “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none” team. Indiana transfer Tayven Jackson is a former blue-chip prospect, and incumbent Jacurri Brown is an elite running QB. (How about a 9-yard average on 36 designed carries?) Either could be good, but we don’t know if Jackson has anything or if Brown can marry his legs with an arm. 

Player to watch: Running back Myles Montgomery, who’s still looking for a breakout after transferring a few years ago from Cincinnati. If he can’t replace RJ Harvey, maybe WMU transfer Jaden Nixon can.

10. West Virginia

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 13th (2nd OFF, 16th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 10th (6th OFF, 14th DEF)

One scary thing: Will the sequel be as good as the original? Almost certainly not. They rarely are. Rich Rodriguez’s return has been buzzy. I do wonder what happens if WVU loses at Ohio (a good MAC team) in Week 2 or stumbles at home against Pitt the following week. We haven’t learned yet whether Rodriguez’s roster is physical enough to play ball the way he envisions. 

One exciting thing: Running back Jahiem White is a big star, and he’s back. He averaged about 6 yards a pop and, impressively, averaged 3.5 on carries featuring a run disruption by the defense. (Opta data credits a run disruption when a defender eliminates a gap at the point of attack.) 

One key guy: Edge Jimmori Robinson, the UTSA transfer who had 10.5 sacks for the Roadrunners and won AAC defensive player of the year.  

11. Houston

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 14th (16th OFF, 1st DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 11th (11th OFF, 1st DEF)

One scary thing: The defense gets high ranks per TRACR, but there’s very little proven high-end talent on this roster. It would be cool if someone like linebacker Jesus Machado, a former star at Tulane who missed last year with an injury, broke out. If you asked me, “Who is the best player on this team?” I’d have to rummage around a while to answer. 

One exciting thing: I like the upside of the receivers and tight ends. Stephon Johnson is a nice run-after-catch player whose 8.3-yard RAC ranked third in the conference. Amare Thomas has put up solid numbers at UAB and should be glad to be off the Blazers’ sinking ship under Trent Dilfer. Tight end Tanner Koziol was second-team All-MAC at Ball State, where he helped QB Kadin Semonza win Freshman Player of the Year. He’ll be a nice hand-holder for the Cougars’ new QB.

Player to watch: Quarterback Conner Weigman will never be what Texas A&M fans once thought he was, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be an effective starter at Houston. We’ll find out soon if he is one. 

12. Cincinnati

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th (12th OFF, 10th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 12th (12th OFF, 10th DEF)

One scary thing: The loss of running back Corey Kiner, a former LSU transfer, might sting a lot. Kiner gave the Bearcats efficient volume, carrying 204 times for 1,153 yards. Wisconsin transfer Tawee Walker has a similar size and running style to Kiner – both are listed at a generous-looking 5-foot-9 – and hopefully, he’ll do a decent Kiner impression statistically, too. 

One exciting thing: The Bearcats have proven, returning stars on both sides of the ball. Defensive tackle Dontay Corleone has a clean bill of health, and tight end Joe Royer is a first-team all-league player. 

Player to watch: Quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who had stark ups and downs and netted out to being roughly an average Big 12 passer last year. Can he be more than that? 

13. Utah

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th (15th OFF, 2nd DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 13th (15th OFF, 2nd DEF)

One scary thing: Despite a solid defense, Utah didn’t look like Utah last year. And it wasn’t just that Cam Rising couldn’t get on the field. The whole offense was disjointed enough that Kyle Whittingham fired coordinator Andy Ludwig, a longtime lieutenant, at midseason. 

One exciting thing: The addition of Devon Dampier, the QB transfer from New Mexico. Dampier, along with new Utah coordinator Jason Beck, led UNM to a 49.5% rushing success rate – best in the G5. 

Player to watch: Right tackle Spencer Fano, the future NFL starter who will lead the group punching open holes for Dampier and Washington State running back transfer Wayshawn Parker. 

14. Colorado

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th (10th OFF, 8th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 14th (13th OFF, 6th DEF)

One scary thing: In real-world terms, Deion Sanders’ health. Hopefully, he stays well all season. In football terms, Colorado loses one of the best players in program history (Travis Hunter), a good starting quarterback (Shedeur Sanders), several other good offensive players, and six of its top eight tacklers. 

One exciting thing: Freshman Julian Lewis is probably good, and if he’s not, Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter definitely is. I expect Colorado’s quarterback unit to remain solid. 

Player to watch: Left tackle Jordan Seaton allowed a solid 10.6% pressure rate as a true freshman, playing on another lousy line. (Colorado’s right tackle, Philip Houston, gave up a 15.7% rate.) Any path to Colorado not having a bad line includes Seaton making the All-Big 12 team. 

15. Arizona

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 16th (14th OFF, 13th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 15th (9th OFF, 15th DEF)

One scary thing: What if we’ve already seen the best of Noah Fifita, the quarterback who set the world on fire in 2023 but declined significantly last year behind a poor line? The line should be better this year, but Fifita no longer has top-10 NFL pick Tetairoa McMillan catching his passes. 

One exciting thing: The defense could be better in Brent Brennan’s second season. The top four tacklers are back, as is the team’s top sack-getter, Tre Smith, the end who came from San Jose State with Brennan after Jedd Fisch left Arizona for Washington following 2023. 

Player to watch: We’ll make it two: Transfer receivers Kris Hutson and Javin Whatley, who arrive from Washington State and FCS Chattanooga, respectively. Whatley is a burner and could become a substantial big-play threat, which the Wildcats need in a post-McMillan existence. 

16. Oklahoma State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 15th (13th OFF, 14th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 16th (14th OFF, 16th DEF)

One scary thing: Mike Gundy has always, always, always had a bounce-back in him when things have looked bleak in Stillwater. If he has one now, it’s harder than ever to see. 

One exciting thing: Going 0-8 in the Big 12 last year means forfeiting your right to have something “exciting” highlighted in the next season’s preview. The Pokes’ QB situation is a complete unknown with Zane Flores and Hauss Hejny battling it out, but it’s better than trotting out Alan Bowman, Garret Rangel and Co. for another season. 

Player to watch: Nose tackle De’Marion Thomas had 14 run stuffs last year at Vanderbilt. Oklahoma State’s defensive line had injury problems and even bigger performance ones. Ideally, Thomas would help elevate the run defense from one of the worst in the sport to respectability. 

Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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