Blue Jays and Mariners Set for Epic Pitching Showdown—Which Ace Will Rise?

Can you ever really be “sorta right” in sports betting? Yesterday’s action reminded me that partial credit still feels like a loss in the bankroll. The Dodgers looked poised to cruise through five innings with a lead — spoiler alert: they didn’t — and Yoshinobu Yamamoto unraveling late made sure the run line pick was toast too. Ah, the cruel lessons of the diamond. Tonight, though, we pivot to the Blue Jays facing the Mariners at 9:40 ET — two teams chasing different narratives but each with something to prove. Toronto’s 17-20 haul screams “inconsistent,” especially on the road where they’re stumbling at 6-12. Kevin Gausman, though, looks like the steady hand they need to right the ship. On the flip, the Mariners quietly flex a 22-14 record, thriving at home where Luis Castillo has been sterling. So, who has the edge — and who do we trust with our bets? I’m sitting this one out on sides and instead eyeing the under for the first five innings, betting on pitchers who know how to keep the heat off the scoreboard early. Sometimes avoiding “somewhat wrong” is the best call of all.

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Blue Jays vs. Mariners, 9:40 ET

I was really right about one game yesterday, and only somewhat wrong about the other. The problem is that being somewhat wrong is still wrong and it costs us money. I thought the Dodgers would be able to get through five with a lead and instead they scored zero runs. Even a push would’ve been an issue as I suggested the run line rather than moneyline, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto ended up giving up a bunch of runs in the bottom of the fifth which would’ve made that a loser as well. Let’s try and avoid that fate today as the Blue Jays take on the Mariners. 

Toronto is 17-20 for the season and looking to see if they can make a run this year. After falling short of even being competitive, this could be the season that they finally find a way to the postseason, but they need to make sure that they are more consistent than what they have right now. The Blue Jays are just 6-12 on the road, so that is one easy spot to an area for improvement. Kevin Gausman is looking to help that area of struggle for Toronto. Gausman is 2-3 for the season with a 3.83 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He is doing a great job of keeping the bases clear, with just 25 hits and 12 walks in 40 innings. He’s made seven starts for the year, and five of them have been quality outings. In fact, he has allowed just 17 earned runs this season, and 10 of them came in two games and 13 have come on the road. Gausman has been great against the Mariners, holding hitters to just 20 hits in 109 at-bats. I would consider Cal Raleigh to hit a homer as he is 5-for-11 with three of them against Gausman. 

The Mariners have quietly put together one of the better teams in the league. Seattle is 22-14 for the year and have doubled their wins over losses on their home field. Seattle is 12-6 at home this year, finding a lot of success on their field. The Mariners offense was the biggest question mark coming into this season. To this point in the season, they have been very good with a .247 average, 185 runs scored, and 51 homers. If they can keep this going the whole year, and the pitching staff locks in like last year, this could be a really exciting season in Seattle. One of those arms in the rotation that is looking to lock in like last year is Luis Castillo, he takes the mound tonight. Castillo is off to a decent start with a 3-2 record, 3.29 ERA, and a 1.33 WHIP. In 23 home innings this season, he has a 1.57 ERA. He has been pretty solid against the Blue Jays hitters as well, holding them to a .239 batting average. 

I think that Guasman and the Blue Jays are live here, but the trend would indicate that you should take the Mariners. Me, I won’t play either side of the game. I think a case can be made for both of them. Instead, I’m going to take the under for the first five innings. Gausman’s history makes me think we can get under the total coupled with how Castillo has thrown at home. 

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