Blue Jays Poised for Surprise Upset Against Rising Stars Skenes and Pirates—Can They Pull It Off?

What’s the real gem on this Monday’s packed baseball docket? It’s not every day you get a duel that might not light up the scoreboard but promises a pitcher’s duel for the ages. The Toronto Blue Jays, cruising 21 games above .500, face off against a struggling Pittsburgh Pirates squad that finds its salvation—if any—in the star arm of Paul Skenes. Now, here’s a twist: can Skenes’ brilliance at home overshadow his recent rough patch? And on the flip side, will the Blue Jays’ offense finally break through his dominance, or are we headed for another low-scoring standoff? With Kevin Gausman taking the mound for Toronto, reliability meets raw talent, creating a conundrum that’s as fascinating as it is compelling. As someone who’s watched teams rise and stumble under pressure—and yes, battled the unpredictability of schedules—this matchup has all the makings of a captivating contest that might just hinge on one pitch or one swing. Curious to see which way the winds will blow?

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Blue Jays vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

I was just complimenting the schedule makers for the matchups they had put together over the past couple of weeks. The start to this week has some good ones, but not all of them are great. We get a lot of Mondays without everyone playing because it is travel day for a lot. This is a pretty packed lineup for the schedule, but there are a few games that stand out more than others. While you can’t describe both of these teams as great, you can say this is an outstanding pitching matchup as the Blue Jays take on the Pirates.

The Blue Jays are 21 games above .500 and look like this is one of the first seasons in a handful where they actually have made progress. They’ve essentially had the same roster for multiple seasons, but this is the first that it seems to have clicked. I mentioned before that it could be due to the fact that Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s contract situation was finally resolved. This team is hitting unbelievably well, and we grabbed a win off of them yesterday as I took Nathan Eovaldi to keep the Rangers ahead against the Blue Jays. Tonight, the task of getting the Blue Jays back in the win column falls on the arm of Kevin Gausman. For the year, Gausman is 8-9 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Gausman is reliable and will likely be the opening starter for whenever the playoff series starts for the Blue Jays. His ERA is a bit high, but that WHIP is 11th in the league. He has been slightly better on the road this season, posting a 3.48 ERA. He has posted back-to-back quality starts for Toronto, and four in his past five games. Overall, the Pirates are hitting 20-for-55 against him. 

The Pirates are not a good team, and I find it hard to believe that this team is going to be able to turn it around in one year. The Blue Jays could be a prime example of making it work, but the problem I have is that the club doesn’t have the same amount of talent of Toronto, or even the Orioles who had a similar overnight shift from losses to wins. Pittsburgh has very little going for them with the exception of a few starters. Specifically, today’s starter is potentially the best in all of baseball. Paul Skenes has been as good as advertised for Pittsburgh. He is 7-9 for the season with a 2.13 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 166 strikeouts. He is first in ERA and sixth in strikeouts and WHIP. If he was on a good team, he probably would be 17-3 or something with his performance. He has been even better in his home starts with a 1.70 ERA. He has struggled this month allowing four earned runs in two of the three starts. He has allowed eight earned runs in 15 innings for the month. Is he wearing down, or is it just a blip considering four came at Coors Field, and four came against the ridiculous Brewers. Only Ty France has faced Skenes, and they are 1-for-2 against him. 

This should be a low scoring game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blue Jays take the game considering the offense is significantly better than the Pirates. The problem really becomes if Toronto can get it going against Skenes. We’ve seen Skenes make 25 starts this season, and the team is just 12-13 in those games. At home, the Pirates are 7-4 in his home starts, though. I think this game probably goes under 7.5 runs, but I’m getting too good of a value on the Blue Jays considering they will eventually face that Pirates bullpen. Back Toronto to win this one.

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