Blue Jays Set to Unleash Devastating Power Surge—Will History Repeat?

If you asked me at the start of this American League Championship Series whether I’d be on a winning streak with my picks, well… let’s just say I’d have told you a fib. Game 1? Thankfully, no bet, because the Blue Jays offense was ghosting like a bad Tinder date. Game 2? I threw my lot in with Toronto, only to watch them get steamrolled by the Mariners. And Game 3? I leaned on the Mariners’ pitching edge, which turned out to be about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Now we’re heading into Game 4—can the Blue Jays finally turn the tide, or will my luckless streak continue? Two scrappy, small-market teams have battled back and forth, each showing grit and flashes of brilliance. With Max Scherzer, the grandmaster of postseason pitching, taking the mound for Toronto, and the deceptively tough Luis Castillo on the hill for Seattle, tonight’s matchup is shaping up as a showdown full of intrigue and high stakes. So here’s the million-dollar question—can the Blue Jays muster enough firepower to even the series, or are the Mariners poised to inch ever closer to that coveted World Series berth? Strap in; it’s about to get real interesting. LEARN MORE

Blue Jays vs. Mariners, Game 4, 8:33 ET

I’d be lying to you if I told you this was a good series for me. The only redeeming thing that has happened to me in the American League Championship Series is that I didn’t have a bet on Game 1. In Game 2, I took the Blue Jays to win. They didn’t the Mariners crushed them. In Game 3, I said the Mariners pitching edge would make the difference. It did not, the Blue Jays took a game. I’ve been dead wrong in the two games I’ve played here, so let’s try and get back on track in Game 4 as the Blue Jays take on the Mariners.

There are a lot of things to like about this series. We have two smaller market teams that have built their team well and signed key pieces when needed. They have also made trades to give them some leverage. As mentioned, in Game 1, the Blue Jays couldn’t get much offense going at all. They had a leadoff homer from George Springer and then essentially nothing else the remainder of the game. In Game 2, they were able to get a few things going, but the pitching fell apart and they allowed the Mariners to hang 10 runs on them. Game 3 was a bit of them flipping the script. They went down early and instead of giving up, they got off the mat and fought back. They accumulated 18 hits and 13 runs last night as they stole the home game from the Mariners. They still have to take another one if they are going to win the series, but it has to feel good to rebound after falling behind. The Mariners got two runs in the first and the two in the eighth, but that was it. The Blue Jays were able to get consistent hitting for the first time in the series with both the longball and regular hits serving them well in the game.

Tonight is another pivotal game. If the Blue Jays win, they have tied up the series and reduced it to a best-of-three. If the Mariners win, they only need to win one of the next three to advance to the World Series. Even as old as he is, there are few guys you should feel more comfortable about on the mound than Max Scherzer. He wasn’t great this season, posting a 5.91 ERA away from Toronto, but the guy is a big game pitcher. The biggest concern is that he hasn’t pitched since September 24th. That’s a long time for him to be off. The good news is that Toronto saved their bullpen a bit yesterday, and Scherzer will go as deep as he can as he likely only has one more start in him after this if they advance to the World Series. Mariners hitters are batting just 11-for-54 against him, with only Julio Rodriguez being a true threat. Combatting Scherzer is Luis Castillo. He hasn’t pitched since the 15 inning contest against the Tigers so he is plenty rested. Castillo was traded for a few years ago to be the Ace of the club. He is now their 4th or 5th best arm, but that’s still extremely impressive. He’s been great at home this season, posting a 2.60 ERA. He did face Toronto twice this season and was knocked around in both games. He allowed 17 hits and eight earned runs over 10 innings this year.

I do think the Blue Jays tie this series up. I’ve been wrong about every game in the series to this point (as I mentioned earlier). I’m not going to blame you for fading me, but with these pitching matchups, it probably makes more sense to just take the over for the game. The Blue Jays should win, but I’m more confident in them getting three or more runs, and I’d expect the same from the Mariners. I’ll split a unit on this and back the Blue Jays and over.

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