Boise State’s Final Mountain West Season: Can They Defy Expectations or Will a New Contender Emerge?

2025 isn’t just another year for the Mountain West Conference—it’s the final curtain call for the league as we’ve known it. Picture this: most of the Mountain West’s star teams packing up for a revamped Pac-12, while new faces like Northern Illinois prepare to step into the spotlight. It’s a seismic shift that could rewrite the playbook for college football fans and insiders alike. Yet, before the dust settles, there’s a familiar hum in the air—Boise State, the perennial favorite, once again holds the top preseason spot, aiming to close out its 15-year run on a high note. But is this going to be the year the challengers—UNLV, Fresno State, Air Force, or maybe even Colorado State—finally shake up the status quo? The Opta supercomputer, wielding its TRACR model, throws in some curveballs with its data-driven projections, reminding us that strength of schedule and roster changes can upend expectations. So, are we ready to say goodbye to the Mountain West’s golden era, or is there still an upset brewing beneath the surface? Dive into our detailed preseason guide, packed with sharp observations, advanced metrics, and insider info on every team in the league’s swan song. LEARN MORE.

2025 will mark the end of the Mountain West Conference as we know it. But before everything changes, we’ve got preseason notes, observations and advanced data snippets on every team. 

Transition looms in the Mountain West.

The league will undergo a makeover next year, when most of its good teams leave for the reconstituted Pac-12 and Northern Illinois (likely among others not yet named) joins the MWC in their place.

But before that overhaul, things feel quiet and familiar. Boise State is the league’s preseason media poll favorite for the 15th time in its 15-year history in the league, which ends after this season.

UNLV looks like the strongest challenger, but after reset years, Fresno State and Air Force also loom. Might this be the year a Colorado State breakout finally happens? It’s at least possible. 

The Opta supercomputer might have a slightly different outlook. It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.

The Opta supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.

Here’s a preseason field guide to the conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their league TRACR ranking.

Mountain West Conference Projected Records

1. Boise State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st 
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 1st 

One scary thing: Ashton Jeanty’s departure means it’s a virtual guarantee that Boise State’s running game, the driving element of the team’s success, will decline. How much? We’ll see. 

One exciting thing: Your favorite non-Jeanty player is probably still here. Left tackle Kage Casey is a beast. Tight end Matt Lauter is a Mackey Award candidate. Safety Ty Benefield solidifies the back end. 

Player to watch: Sire Gaines, the redshirt freshman running back who steps into Jeanty’s job. Gaines was brilliant in his debut last year before getting hurt. 

(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)

2. UNLV

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 2nd

One scary thing: UNLV has benefited a lot from elite special teams over the past few years. The loss of an elite kicker, a good punter, and star receiver Ricky White III – who blocked three punts – will sting. White’s loss will also be evident in the offense, of course. White and kicker Caden Chittenden were the special teams and freshman players of the year, respectively.

One exciting thing: Dan Mullen replaces Barry Odom in Las Vegas after the latter’s departure for Purdue. For all of Mullen’s recruiting faults in his last job at Florida, he can draw up ball plays. How Mullen takes advantage of one of the better NIL situations in the Group of Five will be fun to watch. 

Player to watch: Jai’Den Thomas, last year’s second-team All-Mountain West tailback behind Jeanty. He averaged a solid 2.5 yards after contact and 5.6 overall. 

3. Fresno State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 3rd

One scary thing: Is there game-breaking skill position talent on this roster anymore? I don’t see it yet. The Bulldogs had some of the best in the G5 for a while, including running backs Ronnie Rivers and Malik Sherrod, receiver Jalen Moreno-Cropper and quarterback Jake Haener in the past few years. 

One exciting thing: New coach Matt Entz comes from USC to replace Jeff Tedford, but before that, he was the latest title-winning head coach in North Dakota State’s FCS dynasty. He’s leaning heavily into non-FBS programs in his staff hires and portal additions. I’m intrigued about a coach from maybe the best developmental program in the sport trying to mold an FCS core into a quality FBS team. 

Player to watch: Senior cornerback Al’zillion Hamilton is a true lockdown guy. He allowed a 43.8% burn rate last year on 80 targets. That’s a great show of consistency in a league where the average burn rate allowed (minimum 15 targets) is 51%. He has a specific goal of seven picks and 27 pass breakups. 

4. Colorado State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 4th

One scary thing: The Rams had decent overall rushing stats last year but couldn’t buy conversions in short yardage, and now they’ve lost leading runner Avery Morrow (1,046 yards in 2024). 

One exciting thing: CSU lacked quality receiver play last year after an injury halfway through the year to the unit’s best player, Tory Horton. Jay Norvell has tended to produce good wideouts and this year brings on a bunch of intriguing transfers, led by former four-star Kojo Antwi from Ohio State. 

Player to watch: Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has gradually cut both his pickable pass and actual interception rates throughout his career. He has a live arm but hasn’t quite put everything together yet. Maybe he’ll do it this year with a strong wideout group. 

5. San Jose State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 5th

One scary thing: Ken Niumatalolo made a smooth transition from a career coaching the flexbone option to putting out a strong vertical passing attack last year. How much of that was because he had Nick Nash, a first-team All-American receiver? We’ll get a sense of that now that Nash is gone.

One exciting thing: A case for optimism: Quarterback Walker Eget unseated Emmet Brown midseason and flashed legit dual-threat skills in limited usage as a runner (8.2 yards on 11 designed carries, 7.4 yards on 12 scrambles) and avoided sacks (a mere 6.0% sacks per pressure rate). 

Player to watch: Middle linebacker Jordan Pollard had 12 tackles for loss and 117 tackles. With 20 run disruptions, he accounted for almost half of the Spartans’ total (42) by himself. 

6. Hawaii

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 6th

One scary thing: Teams dared the Rainbow Warriors to throw. The UH offense faced a 64.3% heavy box rate – by far the highest in the Mountain West – and countered by calling a pass on 73.1% of its plays – also the highest. This resulted in Hawaii having some very productive receivers. (More on them shortly.) This year, a good question is: What happens if defenses try harder to stop the pass? 

One exciting thing: Hawaii had the sixth-best defensive TRACR rating in the league in 2024 and brings back its top five tacklers. This should be one of the best defensive teams in the league. Edge rushers Jackie Johnson III and Elijah Robinson combined for 14 adjusted sacks – plays in which they recorded a pressure and the play ended with someone sacking the QB. 

Player to watch: Receivers Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock combined for 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. They’re the conference’s two top returning receivers by yardage. 

7. Nevada

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 7th

One scary thing: There are infinite scary things for Nevada. Maybe the scariest is the loss of the best player on the team, left tackle Isaiah World, to Oregon via the transfer portal. 

One exciting thing: Quarterback Chubba Purdy has power conference experience (Florida State and Nebraska) and is a pretty good fill-in after starter Brendon Lewis transferred to Memphis. 

Player to watch: Nose guard Thomas Witte led the Wolf Pack with 18 run stuffs last year. The anchor of the offensive line is gone, but at least the anchor of the defensive line is still here. 

8. Air Force

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 8th

One scary thing: The part of last year’s 5-7 team that sort of worked, the defense, loses almost all of its top contributors. I’m not sure Air Force can stop the run, especially against, say, Boise State, which has a bye week before it faces the Falcons in Week 4. 

One exciting thing: Last year, Air Force had almost no returning experience on offense. That would hurt anyone, but it especially hurt the Falcons, who cannot use the transfer portal like most teams. Troy Calhoun’s team welcomes back eight starters, including some intriguing pieces from last year: quarterback Josh Johnson, fullback Dylan Carson and explosive receiver Cade Harris. 

Player to watch: Carson didn’t have much room to run last year and averaged 4.3 yards per carry. But he averaged 3.3 yards per run disruption, a solid rate that suggests he was bulldozing ahead despite an iffy blocking situation. His development this year could determine the offense’s ceiling. 

9. Wyoming

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 9th

One scary thing: A leaky defense. The 2024 Pokes allowed an 11.4% explosive play rate – worst in the conference – and now Jay Sawvel’s squad is swapping out almost its entire starting secondary. 

One exciting thing: Wyoming ran the ball on 50.3% of its downs but had a 33.7% success rate when doing it, second-worst in the conference. I think that’ll improve with offensive line continuity, as the only regular OL who departed the program after last season was the starting center. 

Player to watch: Tight end John Michael Gyllenborg was second-team All-Mountain West last year with 425 yards and three touchdowns. His 29% target rate leads all Wyoming returners. 

10. Utah State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 10th

One scary thing: New coach Bronco Mendenhall didn’t inherit a lot of talent and will need to pull off a neat trick to make this 4-8 team much better in Year 1. The best player from last year’s team, running back Rahsul Faison, is trying to get himself eligible to play again … at South Carolina. 

One exciting thing: Mendenhall, who spent last year at New Mexico, is a great get. Mendenhall is one of the most consistent, high-floor coaches in the sport, and it’s difficult to envision him not at least making the Aggies an above-average Pac-12 team in future years. It just might take a minute. 

Player to watch: Quarterback Bryson Barnes had a 69.2% well-thrown rate last year, one of the lowest rates among MWC regulars. But this league lacks productive QBs in general beyond Boise’s Maddux Madsen, and it might not take much for Barnes, a Utah transfer, to be a top-end MWC QB. The main thing: cutting back a lot on a brutal 8.3% pickable pass rate. 

11. New Mexico 

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 11th

One scary thing: UNM eternally has a bottom-half roster in the MWC, and now it’s starting over from scratch after Mendenhall left for Utah State and QB Devon Dampier went to Utah. 

One exciting thing: New coach Jason Eck, who replaces Mendenhall, comes from Idaho. He is more or less trying to put together an FCS all-star team in the Mountain West, headlined by third-team FCS All-American running back Scottre Humphrey from Montana State. It might not work, but New Mexico can only compete by being different, and this represents an attempt to be different. 

Player to watch: DJ McKinney, a transfer running back from Sam Houston, averaged a strong 3.9 yards per run disruption. He’s part of a crowded but likely strong position room. 

12. San Diego State 

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 12th 

One scary thing: Sean Lewis has a reputation as an offensive savant. But the San Diego State coach churned out the worst offense in the league in his first year in the job, per TRACR, and now the unit loses its most productive and experienced players almost across the board.

One exciting thing: I don’t think SDSU is the 12th-best team in this league. The Aztecs have possibly the best player in the conference in edge rusher Trey White, who had 12.5 sacks and 20 run stuffs. 

Player to watch: Other than White? Middle linebacker Tano Letuli, who made third-team all-conference last year on the strength of 15 run disruptions, 13 stuffs and solid coverage stats. 

Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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