Buffalo’s Surprising Edge: What Early NHL Weekend Rankings Reveal—and What They Conceal

It’s funny how time flies when you’re knee-deep in power rankings year after year. Here we are, eight full seasons strong at The Athletic—and believe me, this column has bounced around a bit before landing here. Eight years might sound like a long stretch, but think back to our first outing in 2018. Remember the San Jose Sharks at the top of the Stanley Cup contenders? Back then, the buzz was all about Erik Karlsson’s blockbuster trade, and, boy, did we all buy into the hype. Fast forward to today, and while much has changed on the ice, the core mission remains—it’s not about who’s hot this week or who’d win a head-to-head shootout tomorrow. No, we’re playing the long game, reading tea leaves and crystal balls to figure out who’s gearing up for a true Cup chase and who’s spinning their wheels at the bottom of the league. Sure, it can be a bitter pill to swallow when your favorite team manages a few wins but doesn’t soar up the rankings overnight. If you need to vent, head over to the comments—there’s always a healthy dose of good-natured ribbing waiting for you there. After all, this is just the beginning of the season; not much has shifted the needle yet. Last year’s early calls handed the Rangers a top-five spot, which, in hindsight, might have been a tad optimistic. Maybe we’ll be a step behind the curve on some teams, maybe not. That’s the thrill—and agony—of early rankings, where recency bias is both a friend and a foe. If you crave a more immediate snapshot, my colleagues Dom and Other Sean get you covered later in the week. As for me? I say read ’em both and enjoy watching how the story unfolds. Also—seriously—have you had any water today? Stay hydrated. With the pleasantries out of the way, let’s dive into a weekend in the

Welcome back to the weekend rankings. By my count, this is the eighth year of this column’s lifespan at The Athletic, and it had a few homes before that. How long is eight years? Put it this way: In that debut edition on this site way back in 2018, the very first team to be listed in the Stanley Cup contenders section was the San Jose Sharks. They’d just acquired Erik Karlsson, you see, and we all knew there was no way that trade wouldn’t work out great.

That’s a long time ago. But it fits with the theme, because these are the long-range rankings. That makes them a bit different from most of the power rankings you’ll see out there — we’re not trying to measure who had the best week, or who’d win a game between two teams right now. Instead, it’s about trying to unravel the future and figure out which teams are best positioned for a Cup run and which are headed toward the bottom of the standings.

And yes, that means your favorite team can win a few games against contenders and not immediately rocket past them in the rankings. I know that’s very upsetting for some of you, but we have resources available in the comment section to help you work through your feelings. (Those resources are other commenters, who will make fun of you.)

It also means this is way too early to be ranking much of anything, because not enough has happened to really alter our preseason predictions. That’s never stopped us before, and it won’t stop us today. Maybe it will backfire — last year’s first rankings had the New York Rangers in the top five. Maybe we’ll be a bit too slow to catch on to teams like last year’s Washington Capitals or Winnipeg Jets, or a surprise team like the Montreal Canadiens.

Recency bias isn’t always wrong, and if you’d prefer a bit more of it in your rankings, Dom and Other Sean will have you covered with their version on Fridays. My advice would be to read both, and then see how (or whether) they converge as the season goes on, but it’s not my job to tell you how to live your life. Have you had any water today? Drink some water.

Enough preamble. Let’s get to a very weird weekend in the NHL, which saw a night off Friday, just one game Sunday, and the rare full-32 schedule in between.

Bonus five: Random observations from a packed Saturday night

5. I haven’t forgotten about the Columbus Blue Jackets bandwagon — Seven goals against a goalie who just got a bunch of money is a nice sign this team plans to resume causing problems. I’d assume giving up 52 shots against wasn’t part of the game plan, but Kirill Marchenko had a hat trick and Elvis Merzļikins had 48 saves, and my math says both of those things are sustainable, so let’s roll.

4. We might be sleeping on Thatcher Demko as an Olympic factor — Yes, you figure Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger will get all the starts that matter. Then you see Demko do stuff like this and you wonder …

3. I’m not remotely worried about the Tampa Bay Lightning — Sure, they’re 0-2-0 and have given up 10 goals despite opening at home. They’ll be fine. (Note to editors: If they lose in Boston on Monday, delete this and replace with the file called “lightning_are_cooked.doc.”)

2. We love to see a first pick get his first goal — … especially when he does it by impersonating a bowling ball.

Peter Baugh has more on the start of the Matthew Schaefer era.

1. Whatever this was — I did not have the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks on my must-watch list, but they delivered the best game on the weekend. Sure, why not?

When Ryan Reaves is out there absolutely dangling, it might be a weird game.

Did all of those things affect this week’s rankings? Sure, but maybe not as much as you’d expect because again, we’re playing the long game here. Let’s see what that ends up looking like in week one.

Road to the Cup

The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

5. Carolina Hurricanes (2-0-0, +4 true goals differential*) — After winning two at home, they’re off to the West Coast to start a six-game trip. With the three California teams up next, it’s not hard to imagine the Hurricanes sitting at 5-0-0 heading into an early showdown with the Vegas Golden Knights in a week.

4. Edmonton Oilers (1-0-1, +2) — Yes, we all immediately panicked during the opener when that play happened. But they’ve been fine, and will probably flip back and forth with Vegas all season long as the Pacific rep in the top five. With the Knights losing two of three, the Oilers get first dibs.

3. Colorado Avalanche (2-0-1, +4) — It was fun to see them get the Dallas Stars, a nice appetizer for the playoff rematch we’re all expecting in the spring. Not as fun: realizing these two teams don’t meet again until March.

2. Dallas Stars (2-0-0, +1) — Beating the Jets and the Avs on the road is impressive, even if shootout wins are mostly fake. They’ve got the Minnesota Wild in the home opener Tuesday, and 6 points against that trio of teams would certainly send an early message about where the path out of the Central Division runs.

1. Florida Panthers (3-0-0, +6) — Here’s a free prediction: The Panthers are going to be the toughest team to rank this year, at least as far as a long-term outcome.

They’ll be missing Sasha Barkov for probably the entire regular season, and Matthew Tkachuk for most of it. And they’ve shown us in recent years they don’t really care where they finish in the standings. (Last year, they went into the playoffs as the 11 seed.) It won’t surprise anyone to see them stumble through a mediocre season, maybe even hanging closer to a wild-card spot than a division title, at least until they’re healthy. But assuming they make the playoffs, will anyone want to pick against them? Doubtful.

How do you rank that? I’m not really sure. Luckily for me, they looked good enough in week one that I can put them in the top five without any controversy. But at some point, they’re going to be an issue, and I’m guessing they won’t apologize for it.

*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions as the NHL does for some reason.

Not ranked: Boston Bruins — Ho hum, just sitting at 3-0-0, the only team besides the defending champs at that mark.

And no, it doesn’t get them into the top five. It doesn’t get them anywhere close, in fact. (This is your reminder that “not ranked” does not mean “sixth.”) If you’re looking at the long term, you’re not going to pretend that a 76-point team suddenly pushed to the front of the Cup chase based on one good week.

But the Bruins are worth talking about, and maybe the conversation should start with whether this was really a 76-point team last year. On the one hand, they absolutely were, because you are what your record says you are. But last year was also a strange one in Boston, where just about everything that could go wrong did, from the Jeremy Swayman contract debacle to Charlie McAvoy’s weird injury situation to the deadline sell-off. It’s easy to forget that on paper, this is still a team that should have enough talent to at least stay in the playoff race.

So far so good, although those wins came against the Caps, Chicago Blackhawks and Buffalo Sabres, and they needed OT to get past Chicago. You can only beat the teams the schedule gives you, but we’ll learn more this week, starting Monday when the Bruins host the Lightning. After that, it’s on to road stops in Vegas and Colorado. Beat a few of those teams, and then we can talk about early-season surprises. Until then, we might at least have our early Jack Adams favorite.

The bottom five

The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for Gavin McKenna.

Some years, we’re not sure which prospect teams might end up tanking for. Not this year, where Penn State forward Gavin McKenna is already penciled in as next year’s top pick. If you missed it, be sure to check out Gentille’s piece on the freshman’s heavily hyped college debut.

5. Seattle Kraken (2-0-0, +3) — Here’s our annual “unbeaten team that still shows up in the bottom five.” Enjoy it, Kraken fans, it means you either get to make fun of me all year long or forget this ever happened when 2-4 a week from now.

4. Philadelphia Flyers (0-1-1, -2) — The early schedule is tough, and a pair of one-goal losses is something you can maybe build on. Dan Vladar looked great in the opener, and even halfway decent goaltending would solve a lot of problems for this team.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins (2-1-0, -1) — They looked good through two games, and somewhat less good Saturday against the Rangers in Mike Sullivan’s return. Ah, well, Evgeni Malkin’s leading the league in scoring was fun while it lasted.

Evgeni Malkin is off to a blazing start with 5 points in three games. (Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images)

2. San Jose Sharks (0-0-2, -2) — Two losses, but 2 points, and an early game-of-the-year candidate against the Ducks that made fans of Team Chaos stand up and take notice.

Also, their owner is apparently paying attention after all, and he had some interesting things to say.

1. Chicago Blackhawks (0-2-1, -3) — The big question in the bottom five this year: Will any team other than Chicago or San Jose ever get a chance to hold down the one-spot?

It feels unlikely. They almost pulled it off last year — the Sabres were the only other team all season to get the “top” ranking down here, and it was for only one week — and that was before a summer that saw just about everyone else actually trying to improve.

Then again, surprises happen. Absolutely nobody went into last year thinking the Predators or Bruins would be in the bottom five conversation, after all. Still, it’s not hard to imagine getting all the way to April having just watched the Sharks and Hawks trade the spot back and forth. Let’s see whether that expectation changes, and how quickly.

Not ranked: Buffalo Sabres — Look on the bright side, Sabres fans, at least your owner is terrific.

That’s about where the good news ends, at least based on the very early returns of yet another make-or-break season. The Sabres opened against two teams that missed the playoffs last year, and dropped both games by a combined score of 7-1. Mix in a major long-term injury, and … yeah. Sabres hockey, feel the excitement.

They’re not in the bottom five, but unlike in the Bruins section up above, I’m not going to lecture you about how they weren’t close. They were. They should be. There’s no real benefit of the doubt here, not after 14 years of misery.

For now, I’m showing some kindness, which might or might not be influenced by empathy for long-suffering Sabres fans. I’m also factoring in the absence of their starting goalie, which would throw off most teams. We’re not really sure how long Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be out, but it shouldn’t be enough to completely torpedo their season. Then again, Sabres seasons often come pre-torpedoed, so … we’ll see.

This week will be a challenging one, with the Avalanche and Panthers coming to town. They’ve also got meetings with the Ottawa Senators and Habs, two of the teams they’ll need to keep pace with if they’re going to stay near the playoff race. With the Detroit Red Wings up next and then two against the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Sabres can’t afford to lose ground in their hunt for the Atlantic’s mushy middle.

It never makes sense to panic when you’re two games in. But the Sabres are two games and 14 years into this thing, and it’s going to get late very early in Buffalo. Check back next week to see whether we’re already there.