Caitlin Clark Faces Critical Test: Can Indiana Break the Streak Against the Storm?

Caitlin Clark and her Indiana Fever are heading out west to tangle with the Seattle Storm on Tuesday night, and—and here’s the kicker—since Clark’s suiting up, I might actually tune into the WNBA. Yes, that’s right, me, a seasoned sports skeptic, getting drawn in like a moth to a flame. Why? Because this isn’t just any game; it’s the Fever’s first showdown with Seattle this season, with last year’s series favoring the Storm 3-1, albeit both teams covering two games apiece. Now, here’s something curious—the Storm are just three-point favorites, a sign of what I like to call the “Caitlin Clark Tax.” The league’s most popular player dragging the odds closer than usual, even though Seattle tore through Indiana last season and just conquered the reigning champs. Add to that Indiana’s woeful road scoring dip and a Fever squad struggling against the spread, while Seattle thrives at home. Oh, and don’t get me started on Clark’s sophomore slump—the injury layoff, shrinking shooting percentages, and that pesky efficiency drop on the road; can the Fever overcome these potholes? Seattle’s lethal 3-point sharpshooters and ball-control magic could very well dictate the pace, but as any bettor knows, volume often trumps variety in shots. So, does Clark pull her crew through despite the storm, or does Seattle’s home-court dominance rain on the Fever’s parade? Stay tuned because this one promises intrigue, upsets, and a few lessons on why field-goal attempts might just be the trickiest stat in hoops. LEARN MORE.

Caitlin Clark and her Indiana Fever (6-7) visit the Seattle Storm (9-5) Tuesday at 10 p.m. ET. Since Clark is playing, I might actually watch the WNBA Tuesday, and, if so, I’m definitely betting on the game. This is the first Fever-Storm meeting this year, and Seattle won the season series 3-1 last year, but both covered two games. 

The Storm are just -3 favorites, which has to be a “Caitlin Clark Tax” since she’s the Association’s most popular player. For context, Seattle was -5 and -9 in two home games vs. Indiana last year, and -3.5 favorites vs. the reigning WNBA champion New York Liberty Sunday in an 89-79 victory. 

Also, Indy scores 14.4 fewer points per game (PPG) on the road (89.9-75.5 PPG) this year. The Fever are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last five games and 2-4 ATS on the road this season. The Storm, on the other hand, are 4-3 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS in their last six games. 

Meanwhile, Clark is suffering through a “sophomore slump.” She missed five games with an injury, her shooting percentages are down from everywhere on the floor, and her on/off net rating is slightly down from last season. Plus, Clark is less efficient on the road, where she averages 4.4 fewer PPG (21.0-17.6) in her career. 

Furthermore, Seattle has a better 3-point shooting rate with four players averaging 41+% from behind the arc, compared to Indiana, which has one lady (Lexie Hull) shooting better than 37.5% from deep. The Fever hit nearly three fewer 3-pointers per game on the road (9.7-7.0), too. 

Regardless, Seattle should win the battle for possessions. The Storm are second in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and lead the WNBA in defensive TOV%, while Indy ranks sixth out of 13 WNBA teams in both. Finally, shooting comes and goes, but field-goal volume is predictive. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.