Can Byron Nelson Make History with a Third Consecutive CJ Cup Victory?

If there’s one thing I’ve learned chasing PGA TOUR winners, it’s that sometimes the best laid plans don’t involve a victory lap—even when you hit back-to-back winners. Case in point: Justin Thomas ending his drought at the 2025 RBC Heritage bumped my 2025 bankroll into the black at +4.21 units, yet I missed out on celebrating because I skipped last week’s Zurich Classic. Not much edge betting on a goofy tag-team event, right? But hey, regular golf is back, and THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch is posing its own unique puzzle. With World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Texas favorite Jordan Spieth in the mix, plus a field that doesn’t scream star-studded but offers intriguing options, I’m sticking to my gut and my strategy from RBC: putting 25 units on my favorite pick. The kicker? I can’t decide if it’s Byeong Hun An finally snapping his winless streak or Jake Knapp, my One-And-Done pick and a bomber who’s more comfortable than ever at this course. So here’s the question—how do you bet when the obvious favorites have their shine dulled, yet the dark horses are itching to explode? Sometimes, it’s all about the timing, the talent, and maybe a dash of gambler’s intuition. Ready to dive into the details of who’s primed to take it all this week? Let’s roll. LEARN MORE

I didn’t get a chance to victory lap, hitting my second consecutive PGA TOUR winner with Justin Thomas at the 2025 RBC Heritage because I skipped last week’s Zurich Classic since it’s a goofy tag team event that I couldn’t find an edge betting. JT ending his cold streak by winning the RBC brought my PGA TOUR 2025 bankroll above zero: +4.21 units (u). 

Regular golf returns this week with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2025 at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. While the Byron Nelson doesn’t have the strongest field, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth, who are both native Texans, tee it up at TPC Craig Ranch, host of this tournament since 2021. 

I’m keeping the same gambling strategy I used at the RBC Heritage: Betting to win 25u on my favorite pick. But, I have two favorites for the 2025 Byron Nelson: Byeong Hun An and my One-And-Done pick, Jake Knapp. The other four golfers on my card would profit me 20u with an outright win. I didn’t write an analysis for Nicolai Højgaard and Isaiah Salinda since those are “vibe bets.”

The odds are via Oddschecker.com at the time of writing. 

I’m addicted to picking golfers to end curses and winless droughts. I had Rory McIlroy winning the 2025 Masters and completing his career grand slam. Then I hit JT at the RBC Heritage for his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship. I’m taking Ben An to break his maiden on the PGA TOUR this week. 

He’s got two DP World Tour wins, including the Genesis Championship, most recently last October. Ben An has missed three cuts this year but has been playing well over the last six weeks. The 33-year-old has made five consecutive cuts, including three “signature events,” the Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS, the RBC Heritage, and the Masters. 

An finished T8 at the Arnold Palmer and a respectful T21 at Augusta. He gained strokes off the tee (OTT), around the greens (ATG), and on approach (APP) at the Masters. Ben An lost strokes putting at Augusta, but that course has some of the toughest greens on TOUR, much tougher than TPC Craig Ranch. 

He was T14 in 2023 and T4 last year in his only two Byron Nelsons. The South Korean gained strokes OTT, APP, ATG, and Putting at TPC Craig Ranch last year. That said, this just feels like the week Ben An gets it done. He’s 40th in the Official World Golf Rankings and 41st on DataGolf.com, which accounts for the LIV Tour. Hence, Ben An is good enough to win one of these smaller events. 

_____________________________

The Byron Nelson has been a birdie-fest since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, which favors bombers. Knapp is 21st in SG: Putting on the PGA TOUR this year and 34th in driving distance. Last year, Knapp had the lead going into the weekend at the Byron Nelson and was a stroke behind the winner, Taylor Pendrith, after three rounds before shooting a 70 (-1) on Sunday. 

Knapp was the only golfer in the top 29 at the 2024 Byron Nelson to shoot a 70+ in the final round. Even though he hasn’t won this year, and won the 2024 Mexico Open, Jake is having a better season in 2025. He is 56th in total strokes gained (SG) this year and 143rd last season. However, Knapp finished third with Frankie Capan III at last week’s tag team Zurich Classic. 

Plus, he finished in the top 25 in four straight starts in February and March: T17 at The Genesis Invitational (“signature event”), T25 at Mexico, T6 at the Cognizant Classic, and T12 at THE PLAYERS Championship (“signature event”). These events were played on different types of courses in different parts of the continent, so Jake’s game is diversifying. 

Finally, Knapp shot a course-record 59 (-12) in the first round of the Cognizant, and again, you have to “go low” to win the Byron Nelson. The average winning score at the Byron Nelson since going is -24, a score Knapp can reach. 

_____________________________

I’m betting on talent since Thorbjornsen got his full-time TOUR status the same way wunderkind Ludvig Åberg did two years ago: Being valedictorian at the PGA TOUR University. Thorbjornsen hammers the ball off the driver and almost won at a comp course to TPC Craig Ranch — TPC Deere Run — with a T2 at the 2024 John Deere Classic (-24) in his third career PGA TOUR start. 

Both TPC courses are birdie fests that favor bombers. His second-best start on TOUR was a fourth-place finish at the 2022 Travelers Championship as an amateur at another TPC track (River Highlands) in Connecticut. Thorbjornsen showed promise during the 2024 FedExCup Fall season with two T8s at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the RSM Classic, but he has been terrible this year. 

Thorbjornsen has six missed cuts this season and his best finish before the Corales was two T39s at the Cognizant and Houston Open. The Stanford Cardinal finished T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship two weeks ago and T4 with Karl Vilips at the Zurich last week. Granted, the Corales is an alternate event to the RBC Heritage with a soft field, and the Zurich is a team event. 

Yet, in basketball terms, maybe Thorbjornsen just needed to see some shots go down to get his confidence back. Either way, the talent is there. He is fourth in driving distance on TOUR this year and has shown he can shoot in the mid-20s, which will be the winning score of the Byron Nelson. Most importantly, we are getting good odds for Thorbjornsen. 

_____________________________

If you remove his disastrous first five starts, which included withdrawing from The Senty 2025 in January and missing four cuts, Riley is having a solid season. He’s made six straight cuts since with a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open (an alternate event), seventh at the Valspar Championship, and T21 at the Masters. 

Despite being just 97th in the Official World Golf Rankings, Riley was automatically invited to the Masters after winning the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas, last summer. While the Charles Schwab isn’t a “signature event,” it had a much stronger field than the Byron Nelson last year. 

Riley won the 2024 Byron Nelson by five strokes and the five golfers behind him were Scheffler, 2024 BMW Champion (FedExCup Playoffs) Keegan Bradley, two-time major winner Collin Morikawa, and three-time TOUR winner Sepp Straka. Scheffler is in the Byron Nelson, but those other guys won’t be at TPC Craig Ranch. 

Ultimately, my case for Riley is obviously odds-dependent, but there is “proof of concept” of him winning against good golfers, and he is a pretty good driver and putter, the two most important skills for TPC Craig Ranch. He is 60th in SG: Putting on TOUR this year, out of 183 full-time pros, and has gained strokes on the field in driving distance in every start besides the Sentry. 

_____________________________

I planned on using Ben An here initially, but my Mayo Cup partner, my girlfriend, urged me to go with Knapp instead. It really was a toss-up for me and I defer to her since she’s picked two winners this season (Russell Henley at Bay Hill and Rory at Augusta), and Thomas at the RBC Heritage was my first. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.