Can deGrom Silence the Astros’ Power and Secure Victory?

Ever wonder why some folks get so fixated on playoffs before the leaves even change? Well, here’s the scoop—if you’re not angling for that postseason, then what’s the true point of all these innings? Tonight’s faceoff, Rangers vs. Astros at 8:10 ET, isn’t just another game; it’s a mini drama etched deep with playoff dreams and near-misses. The Rangers, who looked like a lost cause for much of the season, have staged a gritty comeback—but they’re still 3.5 games shy of that final Wild Card slot. Meanwhile, the Astros, slipping ever so slightly but still fierce, want to keep their postseason hopes alive without getting tangled up in the division scramble. With Jacob deGrom taking the mound for Texas and Cristian Javier countering for Houston, we’re looking at a classic pitcher’s duel that might just tip the scales in more ways than one. So, is this the night the Rangers break through, or will the Astros sweep their divisional foes? Let’s dive in and find out. LEARN MORE.

Rangers vs. Astros, 8:10 ET

Someone once asked me why I write about the playoffs and records so often to start a season. The point was that I probably focus on the playoff push too much in early April or May. I can understand the question, but the reality is, if we aren’t thinking about getting to the playoffs, what’s the point of playing the games? Looking at schedules and records makes me see how a team is performing over time – for example, the Mets have a winning record, but have been playing .500 baseball since June. Now that we are in crunch time, it is even more important to see how the teams are playing and who still has a shot at the playoffs. In tonight’s game, we have the Rangers still trying to grab a spot, and the Astros are likely going to be in the playoffs. 

Texas looked like they were dead in the water for most of the season, but some late-season additions to their rotation, and their bats coming to life have put the team back in position to at least battle for the playoffs. The problem is that they’ve dropped their past three games, and two of them have been at the hands of these Astros. Imagine that the Rangers split the games, the team would be 80-72, and the Astros would be 82-70. I won’t get into how it would look if they won both of the games, but obviously, that would be even better for the club. They need to get a win here, as they’ve dropped to 3.5 games back for the final Wild Card spot. That is currently held by the Red Sox, but they are just a half-game behind the Astros. The Rangers have good news because they have Jacob deGrom on the mound tonight. For the season, deGrom is turning in his typical performance – 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP. If Tarik Skubal didn’t exist, you’d probably hear more about deGrom in the Cy Young conversation. He has been worse on the road than at home, but he’s still a monster. Overall, the Astros are hitting just .212 against him in 85 at-bats. He has faced them three times this season, with the most recent one being two starts ago, where he allowed three earned runs over 5.1 innings.

The Astros just recently let their division lead slip away. They are still only a half-game back of the Mariners for the division, but the goal needs to be just getting to the playoffs. I don’t think they can focus too much on which way they enter. Houston has been solid for the majority of this season. Their hitting has been consistent, their pitching has been reliable, and the team continues to find ways to win. The problem is that they’ve been playing .500 baseball this month, and not been able to make up any ground on Seattle which has played well. Tonight, they go for a sweep against their divisional foes, as Cristian Javier takes the hill. Javier has only made six starts this season, but he typically is a pretty reliable starter. For the year, he is just 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has allowed four earned runs in each of his past two starts, one home and one road game. The good news for the Astros and Javier is that the Rangers to not hit him very well, going 14-for-77 against him. Adolis Garcia is just 3-for-23 against him.

I think you get a significant edge here in the pitching matchup. I won’t say that Javier is a slouch or anything, but he is clearly not the better starter and is more likely of the two to give up multiple runs. The Rangers are not currently playing great baseball, and both teams need to win. I’m going to back the Rangers to take this one as I think they will avoid the sweep and deGrom will give them what they need to get it done.

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