Can Josh Allen Defy Houston’s Ironclad Defense and Lead the Bills to Victory?
Here’s a thought to chew on as the Buffalo Bills gear up for a Thursday night showdown: can a team that just staged a dazzling offensive revival crack the code against a defense that’s been their kryptonite for years? It’s a curious paradox — the Bills, fresh off a record-smashing performance led by Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber play, face the Houston Texans, a squad that’s not only riding high on recent comeback wins but also boasts the league’s top-ranked defense. Despite the Bills being the slight favorites, history warns us—Texans have dominated at home, handing Buffalo its longest active road losing skid. So, will the Bills’ high-octane attack finally find a way past Houston’s relentless pass rush and lockdown secondary, or will the Texans continue to frustrate and stifle yet again? Buckle up; this clash is as much a test of resilience as it is skill. LEARN MORE
The Bills are coming off an impressive offensive NFL performance, but they’ve historically struggled against the Texans’ formidable defense.
Bills vs. Texans: The Key Stats
- The Bills are favored to beat the Texans, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 50.3% win probability (as of Wednesday).
- The Texans have won five straight home games against the Bills, which includes a 22-19 overtime victory in a wild-card game on Jan. 4, 2020. This is Buffalo’s longest active road losing streak against any opponent.
- The Bills had eight pass plays go for at least 20 yards in Week 11 and lead the NFL with 42 such plays.
In the span of seven days, the Buffalo Bills went from looking like a complete disaster of a football team to one that could make the Super Bowl.
Now they have four days to see if they can repeat that performance against a team that has regularly given them problems and also happens to boast the NFL’s top-ranked defense.
The Week 12 slate opens Thursday with the Bills visiting a Houston Texans team that is coming off back-to-back comeback victories and looking to bolster its playoff chances.
After being on the wrong side of this year’s biggest upset in a 17-point loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, the Bills regrouped with a resounding 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday. Josh Allen regained his MVP form, throwing for three touchdowns and running for three more as the Bills racked up their most points of the season.
In improving to 7-3, the Bills have the fourth-best record in the AFC and their probability of making the playoffs is at 88.6%, according to the Opta supercomputer (as of Wednesday).
The Texans’ odds of making the postseason are 45.4%, and they currently sit one spot out of the playoffs at 5-5.
While the .500 record indicates they’re average, they have been playing much better in recent weeks. All five of their wins have come in their last seven games, and they’re showing a high level of resilience.
They rallied from 19 down in the fourth quarter for a 36-29 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10 followed by Sunday’s 16-13 victory over the Tennessee Titans on Matthew Wright’s 35-yard field goal as time expired.
Not only are the Texans piling up wins, but they also have the blueprint for frustrating Allen and beating the Bills.
Texans’ Key to Victory vs. Bills
Allen was the NFL’s MVP in 2024, though nothing he did in Week 5 at Houston helped him take home that award. In that 23-20 loss, he completed just 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown for a 56.4 passer rating in what was yet another forgettable showing against the Texans.
In four career games against Houston, Allen has led the Bills to just one win while completing 51.2% of his passes, averaging 5.91 yards per attempt and compiling a passer rating of 74.1 – all his lowest marks against any team he has played more than twice.
In last year’s matchup, Allen was routinely throwing under duress and struggled mightily when the Texans brought the heat.
He was pressured 13 times (he was only pressured more in two other games in 2024) and threw to an open receiver on just five throws, with two of those passes deemed pickable. When he wasn’t pressured, he registered a 75.0 open-target percentage and had one pickable pass.
Expect a similar game plan in this game, as Houston will once again look to rattle Allen with a relentless pass rush from one of the NFL’s top edge rushing tandems in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
Hunter (9.0 sacks and 60 QB pressures) and Anderson (8.0 sacks and 55 pressures) are the only teammates to rank in the top 10 in both sacks and pressures. They complement each other well, as they also both rank in the top five in adjusted sack rate.
In last season’s matchup, Hunter had a pressure rate of 22.7% while Anderson was at 20.8%, and they were credited with three hurries apiece.
Both have been on quite a run over the last few weeks, with Anderson recording one sack in each of the last five games and forcing three fumbles in that time frame. Hunter, meanwhile, has five sacks, five tackles for loss and a forced fumble in the last two weeks.
With Anderson and Hunter establishing a pass rush and putting pressure on the quarterback, opposing QBs are struggling. As a result, the Texans rank first in opponent passer rating (72.7) and their 10 interceptions are tied for third.
Interceptions have been an issue for Allen, as his seven picks are already one more than he had last season. He had two first-half interceptions last week before settling down and picking apart a substandard Tampa Bay defense.
He’ll face a much better defense this week. In fact, the Texans lead the league in total yards allowed per game (258.1) and scoring (16.3 opponents’ points per game).
He’ll also be without tight end Dalton Kincaid for a second straight game because of a hamstring injury. Keon Coleman may suit up after being inactive against the Bucs for arriving late to a team meeting.
With Coleman benched, Gabe Davis was elevated from the practice squad and he ended up catching three passes for 40 yards in his first game of the season. Tyrell Shavers also played a much larger role in the offense, running 17 pass routes and catching four of the five balls thrown to him for 90 yards and a TD.
He entered the game with seven receptions for 82 yards on the season. Shavers does have a burn rate of 70.6% on his 102 routes run, well above the league average of 58.2%.
Allen had good chemistry with Davis and Shavers last week, but replicating that rapport against the NFL’s top defense will be a much larger challenge.
Bills’ Key to Victory vs. Texans
The Texans will once again be rolling with Davis Mills at quarterback, with C.J. Stroud still recovering from a concussion sustained in an 18-15 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 9.
While Stroud is considered the future of the franchise after being selected second overall in the 2023 draft and Mills is clearly the backup, the former Stanford Cardinal has led the Texans to back-to-back wins in two starts since Stroud was concussed.
Mills has also gotten Pro Bowl wide receiver Nico Collins more involved in the offense.
After averaging 4.7 catches and 59.1 yards per game in seven contests with Stroud as his quarterback, Collins has hauled in 16 receptions for 228 yards in the last two games with Mills.
Collins leads the NFL with 25 targets in the last two weeks – tied for the most times targeted over a two-game span in his five-year career.
Mills is throwing his direction even though Collins was considered open on just 15 of those 25 targets (60%). On the season, Collins isn’t getting open at a high rate, with an open percentage of 63.4, which ranks 38th out of the 47 receivers targeted at least 50 times. The NFL average for open percentage is 70.2.
The key for the Bills when the Texans have the ball is to do what they can to negate Collins’ production. That is easier said than done, but he is the fulcrum of Houston’s offense, accounting for 31.4% of its total net yards in the last two weeks (228 out of 727) after being responsible for 16.4% of the offense through the first nine weeks (422 out of 2,569).
The onus will likely be on cornerback Christian Benford to take Collins out of the offense.
Since Mills took over, the Texans have been calling slightly more drop-back pass concepts (36.8% in Weeks 10 and 11 compared to 31.6% in Weeks 1-9), and Benford has had better success in coverage against drop backs. Against drop backs, Benford has an open-allowed percentage of 57.9, better than the NFL average of 60.1. On all other pass concepts, he has an open-allowed percentage of 93.3 – the fourth worst among qualifying cornerbacks.
Collins, however, is making defensive backs pay on drop-back pass concepts. Among the 42 receivers who have been targeted at least 20 times on drop backs, Collins’ burn percentage of 70.8 ranks eighth and his average of 15.5 burn yards per target ranks fifth.
Outside of Collins, the Texans don’t have a lot of big-play threats who strike fear in opposing defenses (Collins has accounted for five of Houston’s 15 pass plays of 25+ yards). The ground game with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb is sputtering, registering successful running plays at a league-low rate of 28.4.
The Bills’ run defense has been a mess, ranking 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.43) and rushing yards per game allowed (153.0), but if they can stop the run and force Mills to throw to someone other than Collins, the Bills should be able to get their first win in Houston in nearly two decades.
Bills vs. Texans Prediction
The Bills are favored to beat the Texans, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 50.3% win probability.
The Texans, however, haven’t lost to the Bills in Houston since 2006, winning their last five home games against them, including a 22-19 overtime victory in a wild-card game on Jan. 4, 2020.
This is Buffalo’s longest active road losing streak against any single opponent.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Bills vs. Texans Prediction: Can Josh Allen Stay Hot Against Houston’s Vaunted Defense? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
CHECK OUT THE HOTTEST DEALS ON AMAZON!
100 Vintage Football Cards in Old Sealed Wax Packs - Perfect for New Collectors
$17.59 (as of November 18, 2025 12:30 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2022 Contenders NFL Football Blaster Value Box 8 Cards Per Pack 5 Packs Per Box 1 Autograph or Rookie Ticket Swatch Per Box on Average
$25.00 (as of November 18, 2025 12:30 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Bowman Series 16 Card Team Set made by Topps Featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Plus Rookies and Prospect Cards
$29.99 (as of November 18, 2025 12:30 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Justin Jefferson #239 Facsimile Signed Reprint Laser Autographed Funko POP! Football NFL: Minnesota Vikings Figurine with Protector Case
$29.99 (as of November 18, 2025 12:30 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 2026 Upper Deck M V P Hockey Series Unopened Blaster Box of 11 Packs with Chance for Rookies Plus #1 Draft Picks Cards and Blaster Exclusive Gold Scripts
$34.99 (as of November 18, 2025 12:30 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 Topps Baseball Complete 705 Card Factory Sealed HOBBY Factory Set with (5) EXCLUSIVE FOILBOARDS #/417! Includes all Series 1 + 2 Cards Including Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge Bobby Witt Jr & More!
$89.95 (as of November 18, 2025 12:30 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Chicago Bears 2025 Donruss Factory Sealed 12 Card Team Set Featuring Caleb Williams, Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze with Rated Rookie Cards of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III Plus
$12.99 (as of November 19, 2025 12:29 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
100 Vintage Baseball Cards in Old Sealed Wax Packs - Perfect for New Collectors
$15.59 (as of November 18, 2025 12:30 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025-26 TOPPS Basketball Card BLASTER Factory sealed pack of 14 cards - look for autograph, relics and rookie cards (Cooper Flagg) AND BONUS INCLUDES A HOBBY REWARDS EXCLUSIVE BONUS FLEER PRO VISION ART CARD - UPDATED 11/16/2025
$9.94 (as of November 19, 2025 12:29 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Post Comment