Can Josh Allen Defy the Odds and Lead the Bills to Victory Against the Underdog Texans?

Heading into the season, both the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans carried the weighty expectation of dominating their divisions — yet here we are, and things have taken a sharp turn from the script. Buffalo, sporting a solid 7-3 record, lingers just a game and a half behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East, while Houston finds itself struggling at 5-5, trailing the AFC South leader, Indianapolis Colts, by three games. The Bills still have a fighting chance to claim that division crown, but their margin for error is razor-thin. Complicating matters, Houston’s starting quarterback C.J. Stroud will miss his second straight game following a concussion, with Davis Mills stepping into the spotlight. Mills showed promise last week, leading the Texans to a nail-biting victory against a struggling Titans squad, yet he’ll need to elevate his play further if Houston’s slim playoff hopes are to stay alive. On the other side, reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen is fresh off an astonishing performance that put him in NFL lore with six touchdowns split between passing and rushing — a feat only matched twice before in the history of the game. Despite these sparks of brilliance, Buffalo faces its own challenges, with a defense that ranks in the lower tier of the league and a passing game that hasn’t quite ignited the way fans expected. This Thursday’s matchup promises more than just another game — it’s a pivotal juncture for both squads as they wrestle with unmet expectations and the grind of a season still ripe with opportunity and uncertainty. LEARN MORE

Before the season, the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans were clear favorites to win their respective divisions. It hasn’t played out that way.

The Texans are 5-5, in third place of the AFC South and three games behind the first-place Indianapolis Colts. The 7-3 Bills are a game-and-a-half behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East.

The Bills have a better shot at making a run to a division title but they can’t afford to drop many more games. The good news for Buffalo is it won’t face Houston at full strength. Quarterback C.J. Stroud will miss his second straight game due to a concussion. Davis Mills will take his place. Last week, the Texans needed a last-second field goal to beat the Tennessee Titans, who have the worst record in the NFL at 1-9. Mills wasn’t that bad though, with 274 yards and a touchdown. He’ll need to be at his best for the Texans to win and maintain some hope of staying in the playoff race.

The other quarterback is coming off a historic game. Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen had six touchdowns last week, three passing and three receiving. Allen now has two of three games in NFL history with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Otto Graham has the other, in 1954.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) tries to elude Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter (55) in a game at Houston last season. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Bills have some flaws. There isn’t a lot of firepower in the passing game for Allen to work with. The defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and 19th in EPA (expected points added) per play allowed. A team that had Super Bowl dreams at the end of September finds itself with a much tougher road there now. Thursday’s game is an important one to both teams, even if they haven’t lived up to expectations so far this season.

Who needs it more?

It’s important for both. For the Bills, a loss Thursday puts them even further behind the Patriots in the AFC East and an all-important home game to start the playoffs. But it’s hard to imagine the Bills missing the playoffs, and they could make a run as a wild-card team. The Texans, on the other hand, need to start collecting wins. They’re on the fringe of the playoff race now, but a win over the Bills as an underdog would get them in the conversation. Houston needs this win for its playoff survival.

Key players: Texans DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson

The Texans probably have the best defense in the NFL. They lead the league in yards allowed and points allowed. They’re among the league leaders in advanced metrics, including first in EPA allowed per play. The key to the defense could be Hunter and Anderson, a pair of fantastic pass rushers. They have 17 sacks between them. Josh Allen is a difficult quarterback to sack; he took only 14 sacks last season. His elusiveness and strength is an asset. The game could ride on whether Anderson and Hunter are able to bring down Allen when they get their chances.

Betting market watch

This spread has been on the move, with the lookahead line of Bills -2.5, re-opening at -3.5 on Sunday afternoon. Some sharp action at -4 and -4.5 came in anticipation of Texans QB CJ Stroud being ruled out for a second straight game with a concussion — which is indeed what happened. The line is now up to Buffalo -6, and the public — not surprisingly — is all over the Bills. Both teams need this game for their respective playoff pushes, but it’s a vital one for Buffalo if it’s going to have a chance of catching the Patriots for the AFC East crown. — Ben Fawkes

Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.

The Bills have been a mixed bag on the road this year — destroying the Jets and Panthers, but falling upset to the Falcons and Dolphins. Houston’s excellent defense presents a challenge, but obviously the Texans are still using a backup quarterback. Here are three fantasy angles to consider Thursday night.

1. Is Woody Marks ready to go off? Buffalo’s rushing defense ranks 30th in DVOA, and Sean Tucker was the latest to exploit it. Marks has been inconsistent in recent games, but he does have double-digit carries in five straight weeks as he essentially takes over the Houston backfield.

2. Who rides shotgun with Josh Allen? Although the Texans are the stingiest defense with respect to QB points allowed, Allen’s rushing equity makes him an auto-start everywhere. But the Bills like to rotate their receivers and no one is inside the Top 30 on the fantasy leaderboard. Khalil Shakir is the preferred slot option, and Tyrell Shavers popped last week (4-90-1).

3. Is Davis Mills better for Nico Collins? Houston’s top receiver is on a WR5 and WR4 run the last two weeks, in part because Mills loves to target Collins off the bus (25 looks in two games). Collins has just one Top 15 finish with C.J. Stroud this year. — Scott Pianowski

Check out more of Scott’s work at the Yahoo Sports fantasy hub.