Can No. 24 Virginia Overcome Maryland Eastern Shore’s Unexpected Threat Tonight?

Alright, here’s the scoop. The No. 24 Virginia Cavaliers are headed back to their hardwood haven at John Paul Jones Arena this Tuesday night to square off against the Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks — a matchup that serves as the capstone before the Cavaliers disappear for a ten-day finals hiatus. Now, after dismantling Texas by 19 points on their turf last Wednesday and cruising past Dayton at a neutral site in Charlotte just a few days later, Virginia’s riding a wave of momentum that’s propelled them back into the AP rankings for the first time since February 2024. With those wins bumping them solidly into the top 25 on major computers like KenPom and the NET, there’s some serious buzz around the ’Hoos right now. Historically, UVA owns a perfect 3-0 record against UMES, having last toppled the Hawks in late 2022, so Tuesday’s tip-off at 7 PM EST (streaming live on ACC Network X) is more than just routine — it’s an affirmation of the Cavaliers’ steadfast climb. Curious to see what this contest might unfold? LEARN MORE

The No. 24 Virginia Cavaliers return home to John Paul Jones Arena on Tuesday night to face the Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks in their final game before a ten-day break for finals.

The ’Hoos are coming off their best two performances of the season this past week, a 19-point dismantling of Texas in a true road game last Wednesday before taking care of Dayton in a neutral-site matchup in Charlotte on Saturday.

The pair of impressive wins vaulted the ’Hoos into this week’s AP Poll for the first time since February of 2024 and shot Virginia into the top 25 of most major computer rankings (No. 21 on KenPom, No. 17 in the NET, No. 21 in the T-Rank).

UVA, which is 3-0 all-time vs. UMES, last played the Hawks in November of 2022 — a 72-45 victory for the ’Hoos. Tip-off on Tuesday is set for 7 PM EST with streaming coverage available on ACC Network X.

What to know about Maryland Eastern Shore:

The Hawks are coached by Cleo Hill Jr., who spent six seasons leading Winston-Salem State before becoming UMES’s head coach last season. Though the Hawks finished just 6-25 in year one under Hill Jr., they faced one of the nation’s 20 hardest non-conference strength-of-schedule ratings (according to KenPom).

This season, Hill Jr.’s squad has begun with a similar gauntlet of non-conference competition, as the ’Hoos represent the fifth power-conference opponent for UMES in its first 13 games. Despite taking Georgia Tech to overtime in their first game of the season, the Hawks haven’t had much success so far and head to Charlottesville with an overall record of 4-8.

Forward Joseph Locandro and guard Justin Monden are the Hawks to look out for on Tuesday night. Locandro, a 6-foot-9 senior from Melbourne, Australia, is leading UMES in scoring with 12.4 points per game. A stretch four who can really space the floor, Loacandro is shooting 52.3% from beyond the arc on over 3.6 attempts per game.

Monden, despite coming off the bench in each of the Hawks’ 12 games this season, is leading the team in minutes per game. A crafty veteran guard, the 6-foot junior from Raleigh, North Carolina, has a tight handle, a smooth floater, and a strong mid-range jumper despite being inefficient from three-point range (25.7%).

The outlook:

Statistically, it’s hard to sugarcoat it — UMES is one of the weakest teams in Division I. Entering Tuesday, the Hawks rank 346 out of 365 teams according to KenPom, and they’re only nine spots higher in the NET. Not surprisingly, Virginia is a projected 27-point favorite (via KenPom) on Tuesday night, as the Hawks are statistically the worst opponent on the Cavaliers’ schedule this season.

From a matchup perspective, UMES doesn’t have a single player taller than 6-foot-9 on the roster, meaning it should be tough for the Hawks to compete on the boards with a UVA squad that ranks 10^th nationally in offensive rebounds per game, 15^th in rebound margin, and 15^th in total rebounds per game. Additionally, at just 28.3% from three-point range as a team, UMES lacks the shooting prowess that typically defines mid-major squads capable of pulling unlikely upsets.

While it’s tough to see the ’Hoos struggling in this one, Virginia must not fall into the trap of buying into its own hype. The ’Hoos earned the No. 24 spot in this week’s AP Poll, and Virginia has looked very impressive as of late, but Ryan Odom can’t let his squad overlook any opponent. Crazier things have happened.

Prediction: Virginia 97, UMES 68