Can One Team Make History with 10 Straight Wins in NFL Week 15?

Week 15 in the NFL is no joke—it’s the ultimate “nut-crunching” moment where every play, every call, and every snap can make or break your season in the Circa Million VII contest. After riding a nine-week winning streak, I’m perched just outside the top 100, tantalizingly close to cashing in—and yet, the pressure couldn’t be higher. How do you stay hot without catching a cold streak when the stakes are this sky-high? With a record that’s solid but not spectacular (3-2 in Week 14, tied for 110th out of nearly 5,700 entries), the quest for a six-figure payout demands crunch-time precision: birdies and eagles—or in NFL parlance, 4-1s and perfect 5-0s. Chaos looms as playoff implications pile in, and I’m embracing the madness with calculated confidence. Here’s the game plan, ranked by how much faith I’m putting into each pick—starting with my safest bet and moving into the wild cards you’ll want to watch closely. Ready to dive into the thick of it? LEARN MORE.

Week 15 is officially “nut-crunching” time in the NFL and Circa Million VII. I’m riding a nine-week winning streak and sitting within striking distance of the payout, but there’s absolutely no margin for a cold stretch. I’m still a half-game outside the money (top 100) in the contest and eight games behind the leader, who also went 3-2 last week.

3-2 in NFL Week 14 (42-28, tied for 110th out of 5,684 entries).

In a contest this big, 3-2 is basically a par. You need 4-1s to feel like birdies and 5-0s to qualify as eagles. Realistically, I probably need something like three birdies and an eagle over the final four weeks to sneak into the top five for a six-figure payout. With several games carrying real playoff weight, it’s time to embrace the chaos a bit. Here’s how I’m attacking the NFL Week 15 card.

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

This was my first bet made this week because the “Ravens -2.5” check three boxes here: Revenge Game, Get-Right Game, and Must-Win. They lost to Cincy Thanksgiving, and it’s tough beating the same team twice in three weeks. Baltimore’s offense is having a down year, but the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL. The Ravens need this game to stay alive in the AFC North race.

The “Cowboys -5.5” spread is too big for a Dallas team that’s 30th in defensive efficiency. People thought their defense was average because the Cowboys picked up All-Pro DT Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, and looked decent against bad offenses during their three-game winning streak from Weeks 11-13: the Las Vegas Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs.

If Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy doesn’t poop himself out there, he can beat any team in the NFL. And McCarthy should be able to play well vs. the Cowboys because, again, their defense sucks. He has a solid backfield, great pass-catchers featuring one of football’s best wide receivers (Justin Jefferson), and a franchise blindside tackle.

Minnesota has an elite coaching staff and is pretty healthy on both sides of the ball. The Vikings were +6.5 road underdogs vs. the Packers in Week 12, and Green Bay’s power rating is at least four points higher than Dallas’s. Hence, the question is, “Why are the Cowboys -5.5 favorites?” My guess is twofold.

First, the market still doesn’t like McCarthy and doesn’t give Minnesota much credit for last week’s win over a terrible Washington Commanders team. Second, the Cowboys, aka America’s Team, are getting too much credit for beating Philadelphia and Kansas City in back-to-back weeks.

Yet, even though McCarthy has been awful, he did beat the Detroit Lions, who manhandled Dallas in Week 14. Also, the Eagles and Chiefs are clearly not as good as they were last season. So, since I can explain the spread, I’m willing to fade it and the public, who will probably be all over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

Here is the TL;DR version of my pro-Philly handicap from earlier this week: Las Vegas is a dumpster fire right now, the Eagles have to be pissed after losing their third consecutive game on Monday Night Football in Week 14, Philadelphia’s front seven will maul Raiders backup QB, and former Eagle, Kenny Pickett, and this is the biggest coaching mismatch of the week.

Seattle was a -3.5 favorite in the lookahead line last week. The Seahawks are now -13.5 favorites because Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones tore his Achilles this past Sunday. While Jones has resurrected his career in Indy, he isn’t worth 10 points. Plus, the market knew Jones was already playing on a fractured leg when it made the look-ahead line last week.

I’m not going to lie, some of this pick has to do with everyone leaving the Colts for dead after Jones’ injury. They are either starting sixth-round rookie QB Riley Leonard Sunday or 44-year-old QB Philip Rivers, who signed with Indy earlier this week. The NFL media is clowning the Rivers signing, but at least the front office hasn’t given up, which should motivate the locker room.

For what it’s worth, if Rivers isn’t ready by Sunday, I’m okay with Leonard at this price. I liked Leonard in college when he played for the Duke Blue Devils, then the Notre Dame Fighting Irish when they made the national championship last season. But, hopefully, Rivers will play Sunday because I legitimately believe he can give the Colts a few good games.

Rivers was never athletic, so it’s not like there is anything lost to Father Time on that front. He is familiar with head coach Shane Steichen’s playbook from their years together at the San Diego Chargers. Steichen is a good playcaller, and Indianapolis has game-breakers on offense, including RB Jonathan Taylor and rookie TE Tyler Warren, and a solid offensive line.

You only need a few reasons to bet a +9.5 underdog in the NFL. In this case, Arizona getting healthier, Houston’s offense being meh, and the recency bias of the Cardinals getting destroyed by the Los Angeles Rams and the Texans beating the Kansas City Chiefs by 20-10 on the road on primetime last week, are all reasons to bet on Arizona covering the spread.

This could be a Let-Down Game for Houston after playing three straight playoff-like games vs. the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, and Kansas City. According to NFL data scientist Tom Bliss, the Texans are the luckiest team in the league when factoring in fumble recoveries, dropped interceptions and passes, and field-goal luck. The Cardinals are 26th in Bliss’s “luck dashboard”.

If you remove their NFC West opponents, the Cardinals are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) with QB Jacoby Brissett starting. The Rams and Seahawks are in a tier above the rest of the NFL, and the San Francisco 49ers are quietly 9-4 this season. That one ATS loss was to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 27-24 in overtime, as +2.5 underdogs.

Brissett has been a league-average quarterback this season and doesn’t throw many interceptions. I’m not saying Brissett will upset Houston, but he can keep this game close. Lastly, it helps that both coaches could default to a conservative game plan because they were defensive coordinators before becoming head coaches.

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.