Can the Chiefs’ Explosive Offense Exploit the Commanders’ Troubled Defense Once Again?

Ever have one of those nights where your football picks feel more cursed than a haunted locker room? Yeah, that’s where I’m at lately—trying to shake off a rough patch that’s left my written plays less than stellar. But hey, Monday Night Football’s single spotlight game—Commanders vs. Chiefs—feels like the perfect moment for a turnaround. Can Marcus Mariota really keep the Commanders afloat against a Chiefs squad that’s been lighting up scoreboards like it’s their day job? Or will Patrick Mahomes feast on a secondary that’s been leaking yards like a busted water main? It’s a tantalizing clash: a team riding high and another limping in with injury woes and the shadow of last year’s unexpected playoff Cinderella story. So, who do you trust when the chips are down but the points keep piling up? This game might just be a fireworks show—hopefully with a better ending for my picks this time around. LEARN MORE

Commanders vs. Chiefs, 8:15 ET

It has been a rather miserable stretch of football plays from me on the written ones for Outkick. I’ve given some decent looks during the Outkick Bets podcast, but the write-ups the last two weeks just haven’t been what I want them to be. It happens from time to time, but it never gets easier to accept that it happens. I’m looking to turn the tide and get back to winning some games for the loyal readers here. Also, just need to drop this in here: I hate the Atlanta Falcons. It doesn’t have anything to do with this play, but they are the bane of my football existence this season, and since I was sharing my frustration over results lately, it seemed appropriate. Monday Night Football brings us just one game this week as the Commanders take on the Chiefs.

The Commanders made it to the playoffs last year, and ran themselves all the way to the Conference Championship game before they were easily disposed of by the Eagles. While that was an impressive run, it did seem a bit improbable that it was all occurring. Needless to say, the expectations were high for this season, the second under Jayden Daniels’s belt. Daniels has been okay when available, but like the team, he has been rather inconsistent. He only has thrown one interception this season, but he has three games with 1 touchdown pass. Additionally, he hasn’t thrown for more than 233 yards in any game this season. Injuries, including the hamstring injury to Daniels that is keeping him out of this game, have impacted the Commanders, but Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin will be back tonight. The Commanders have one of the better backup quarterbacks under center in Marcus Mariota. He isn’t quite as dynamic as he once was, but he has gone 1-1 in his starts, beating the Raiders, and losing to the Falcons. They kept the Falcons game close at least, losing by four. He does have to face a tough Kansas City defense, but at least the team will have more weapons.

The Chiefs are now everyone’s favorite again. They started looking like the Kansas City team that has made three straight Super Bowls, and they are getting the “refs favor them” treatment. The team is 4-1 in their past five games, and the loss was a bit uncharacteristic as they had some very silly mistakes late in the game that cost them the win over the Jaguars. They’ve still looked better on offense, which was one of the bigger concerns to start the year. Patrick Mahomes has gotten the Chiefs to 28 or more points in each of the past four games. The Commanders have struggled against the run, allowing 126 yards per game on the ground, but their pass defense has been even worse, allowing 238.3 yards per game, which is the seventh worst in the league. Mahomes should have a feast against them, especially now that all of his weapons are back as well.

We have seen a lot of big scores this week. There were 12 games that have taken place in Week 8, and of those games, there was exactly one game that wasn’t decided by double digits. That has to be some sort of record for the league. I do think this one is also decided by double digits, and the books agree, but I’m not sure I want to back it here. I think the smarter look is to take the Chiefs to go over their team total. over 29.5. They are rolling offensively right now and should at least have a somewhat competitive game for a while with Mariota out there. Back the team total over.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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