Can the Mariners Crack Skubal’s Code, or Is Defeat Inevitable?

Ever notice how baseball, with its marathon 162-game slog, suddenly turns into the sprint equivalent of a playoff with just a measly three- or five-game series? It’s like handing out participation trophies in the longest season of the year! Today’s do-or-die showdown between the Tigers and Mariners in Game 5 has all the drama of a cliffhanger, with both teams clawing and scratching for every inch. The Mariners have shown flashes of offensive fireworks, while the Tigers rely on a pitching maestro in Tarik Skubal to slow the tide. Can a single hot bat like Javy Baez tip the scales, or will the Mariners’ power surge keep their season alive? Either way, buckle up—this one’s shaping up to be a classic nail-biter that makes you question the very structure of baseball’s post-season grind. LEARN MORE

Tigers vs. Mariners, 8:08 ET

It seems a bit silly to me that the longest season in sports has the shortest playoffs. The Wild Card round was just three games, which is no different than most series during the regular season. The Divisional Series is a five-game series, and then they finally get into a seven-game series for the Championship Series and World Series. 162 games, and a team gets a three-game set, and maybe a five-game set now. It just seems silly. The NBA and NHL do seven games for every round. That might seem a bit long, but inject all the baseball playoffs into my veins. Today we get a do-or-die, winner-take-all with the Tigers taking on the Mariners in Game 5.

In Games 1 and 2, both in Seattle, the teams struggled to get much offense going. Both of the games ended with a final score of 3-2, with the teams splitting games. The Tigers won the first game and the Mariners won the second. As the series shifted to Detroit, the Mariners broke out the bats in the first game, racking up eight runs. I mentioned a cool story about Cal Raleigh and a fan catching his homer – it might be the moment of the playoffs. It seemed like even Tigers fans were happy for him. The Tigers made a bit of a push in that game in the ninth inning, but it wasn’t enough. Sometimes that little spark, and knowing the team isn’t quitting is enough to spill over into the next game. Game 4 saw the Mariners jump out to an early lead. It looked like Seattle was going to move onto the next round. In the bottom of the fifth inning the Tigers were able to start rocking. They tied the game and in the sixth they opened it up. Surprisingly, their best hitter might be Javy Baez, who has been much maligned since he came to Detroit. Sometimes one guy that gets hot is all a team needs.

Tonight, the Tigers have a distinct advantage in the pitching matchup. Detroit gets to put Tarik Skubal, the likely back-to-back Cy Young winner, on the mound. This will be Skubal’s third start of the postseason, and he has continued his excellence from the regular season. Skubal has accumulated 14.2 innings and has allowed only three runs. He has 23 strikeouts in his postseason as well. In Game 2, a loss for the Tigers, he allowed just two solo homers to Jorge Polanco. The Mariners won the game after he left the mound. I don’t expect Skubal to deliver any fewer than seven innings today as well. If he does, expect the Mariners to be well in control by that time. To combat Skubal, George Kirby takes the mound. He didn’t have the most impressive season for the Mariners, with a 10-8 record, 4.21 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. He was better at home than on the road this season, and he was decent in the opener against the Tigers. In Game 1, Detroit scored two runs off of Kriby over five innings. I don’t love this move, even though the Mariners will probably make this an All-Hands-On-Deck game, Kirby has been hit well by the Tigers. Over 99 at-bats, the team is hitting almost .300. Baez, the hottest Tiger hitter is only batting 1-for-13 against him.

This is going to be a tight contest, but I’m not taking a side. If the game goes over, I’d have to think the Mariners win because they fall into some homers. If the game goes under, as I’d expect it to, it will be due to both teams being strategic with matchups, but Skubal also doing what he typically does. I’m backing the Tigers to move on as they continue to distance themselves from the collapse that put them as Wild Card winners instead of division winners.

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