Can the Mariners’ Late-Season Surge Crush the Angels’ Playoff Hopes?

Here we go again—baseball hitting that familiar reset button as the Angels and Mariners gear up for a fresh series at 10:10 ET. Ever notice how these new starts—usually Mondays and Fridays, sometimes Tuesdays—feel like a second shot at glory or a cruel reminder of what’s slipping away? With the Angels limping well below .500 and leaning on Yusei Kikuchi to play spoiler, and the Mariners hungrily chasing that playoff lifeline with Luis Castillo on the mound, you can bet this matchup will be a test of grit and desperation. So here’s the kicker: can a team on the brink really rewrite its fate, or are we just witnessing one more chapter in a season’s slow unravel? Let’s dive into the chaos and see who’s got the edge tonight. LEARN MORE.

Angels vs. Mariners, 10:10 ET

We’ve reached the start of a new set of series. Baseball resets, typically, on Monday and Friday. Some teams have Mondays off so there are new series that start on Tuesdays as well. By this point in the season, you probably realize it, but this always presents a different type of challenge or analysis because teams are searching for a win to start the series and not fall behind. In this one we get two AL West teams, one out of the playoffs, and the other one still fighting for their spot as the Angels play the Mariners. 

The Angels actually were putting together a decent season until a few weeks ago. They were one of those bubble teams at the trade deadline – one of the teams that was thinking they might have a chance to add to the club and make a run for a Wild Card spot. While they aren’t officially eliminated at this point, the chances look smaller and smaller. They are well under .500 and would probably need to win all of their remaining games just to have a chance at getting into the postseason. It isn’t unheard of, but you get the picture: highly unlikely that this club will do anything significant. Today they send out Yusei Kikuchi to play the role of spoiler for them. Kikuchi had a decent season for the Angels, posting a 6-11 record to this point with a 4.18 ERA, and a 1.48 WHIP. The problem is that Kikuchi has been substantially worse on the road than he has been at home this year with a 5.45 road ERA. In five fewer innings on the road, he has allowed almost 20 more earned runs. He has struggled significantly over his last three starts, allowing 18 earned runs over 11.2 innings. He made one start against Seattle this year and allowed three earned runs over 4.2 innings.

The Mariners are not quite out of the woods yet and are looking to secure the last playoff spot. They are chasing the Astros to win the AL West, and they are being chased by the Texas Rangers for the last Wild Card spot. They, probably more than anyone, did a great job this season of tinkering with their team. They worked the trade deadline harder than most to add bats to their lineup. Their offense went from being terrible last season, to having very few holes this year. The pitching hasn’t been quite as crisp, but they still have a deep rotation and a decent enough bullpen. I can’t say anyone would look forward to playing them in the postseason. Today they send out Luis Castillo, a guy I have backed numerous times over the past few years. Castillo isn’t having a great year, going just 9-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, but there are a lot of men who would take those numbers for a season and have it be the best year of their career. At home, Castillo has been better, pitching to a 2.79 home ERA. He has struggled over the past month plus, allowing 24 earned runs over 34.1 innings. He is coming off of a quality start against the Braves, though. In his only start against the Angels this season, he was roughed up, going five innings and allowing four earned runs.

This is a game that I’d expect the over to hit, mostly based on how the two pitchers have thrown this year. They are both decent enough, but aren’t going to post outings where they aren’t at least hit a little bit. There is a better look, however. Kikuchi has been bad on the road and Castillo has been good at home, sometimes that’s all you need for the edge. Back the Mariners to cover the run line here.

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