Can the Underdog Patriots Defy the Odds Again in Week 15 NFL Spread Showdown?

Here’s a peculiar conundrum unfolding in the NFL world this week: the New England Patriots, who share the league’s best record, find themselves not even favored on their own turf. Funny how odds don’t always mirror reality or what fans see on the scoreboard. Take the Buffalo Bills, for example. Despite slim chances of taking the AFC East crown, they remain the favorites to claim the entire AFC, holding the shortest odds at +375. This confidence trickles down into the betting lines for their upcoming clash with the Patriots.

Now, the Bills, trailing New England by two games and having lost to them at home earlier this season, are ironically 1-point favorites according to BetMGM. Curious, isn’t it? The Patriots, often criticized for a relatively gentle schedule, have strung together a formidable 10-game winning streak — not a trivial feat by any means — and boast road triumphs in Buffalo and Tampa Bay. The Bills, led by Josh Allen, have shown flashes but also glaring flaws, including crushing defeats to lesser opponents. Just last week, the Bills barely escaped defeat against the Bengals, thanks to a stunning pick-six by Christian Benford that flipped the script in their favor. Sure, you can nitpick both teams’ trajectories, but with the Patriots rested post-bye and poised to clinch the division with a win, respect should be on the table. Maybe Allen will rise to the occasion; maybe not. But I’m leaning Patriots at +1 — because this team apparently isn’t getting the credit it deserves.

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The New England Patriots are tied for the best record in the NFL. And yet, they’re not even favored at home this week.

An oddsmaker’s power ranking doesn’t always match public perception or a team’s record. The Buffalo Bills are very unlikely to win the AFC East but they are still the favorites to win the AFC. The Bills have the shortest odds to win the conference at +375. That belief in the Bills is reflected in this week’s point spread.

The Bills, who lost to the Patriots at home in Week 5 and are two games behind New England in the standings, are 1-point favorites at BetMGM vs. the Patriots on Sunday. That’s an interesting line.

The Patriots have been slighted a bit for playing the easiest schedule in the NFL so far this season, but winning 10 games in a row is difficult no matter the opposition. And the Patriots do have good road wins at Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. The Bills have Josh Allen, but they haven’t been great. They have bad blowout losses to the Falcons and Dolphins. Last week they were in danger of losing to the Bengals at home until Christian Benford had a magical pick-6 and turned the game around. You can pick holes in New England’s season if you wish, but the same can be done to the Bills. On top of it all, the Patriots are well rested coming off their bye week.

Maybe Josh Allen plays the superhero role and keeps the Bills’ chances at an AFC East title alive (the Patriots clinch the division title with a win Sunday), but we’ll give some respect to the Patriots and make them the pick at +1. It seems like getting proper respect won’t be easy for this Pats team.

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills in the first meeting between the teams this season. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

(Kathryn Riley via Getty Images)

Here are the rest of the picks for Week 15 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:

Buccaneers (-4.5) over Falcons

It’s hard to back either team. The Bucs are coming off a miserable loss to the Saints, and their offense is in a slump. More specifically, Baker Mayfield is in a slump. His rating the last four games is 65.2. On the other side, the Falcons have lost seven of eight, and the last two games were a loss to the lowly Jets and a 28-point defeat to the Seahawks. But, we have to pick one of them.

Bengals (+2.5) over Ravens

The Bengals beat the Ravens 32-14 on Thanksgiving in Baltimore. Not much has changed since. The Ravens are showing, week after week, they’re not very good. So why are they favored here? Theoretically the Ravens could suddenly emerge as the stellar team everyone thought they would be this season, but we’ve been waiting for that for months and it hasn’t happened.

Giants (-2.5) over Commanders

It seemed last week like the Commanders had one good performance left in them this season, and it came two weeks ago in a crushing overtime loss to the Broncos. Last week’s effort against the Vikings was startlingly bad. They might already have their luggage packed for the trip to Cancun. The Giants aren’t great either, but they are rested after a bye.

Browns (+7.5) over Bears

There will be a few instances this week of teams in look-ahead spots. It’s not all that common in the NFL, but how will the Bears get up to face the Browns when they know the Packers are coming to town six days later? The Browns have a good defense and until the past couple weeks, the theme of the Bears season was having a bunch of close wins, mostly over bad teams.

Chargers (+4.5) over Chiefs

The only reason to believe in the Chiefs laying this many points is the argument they are in must-win mode. But they’ve been in must-win mode for weeks. It hasn’t mattered. The Chiefs aren’t as bad as their 6-7 record (they’re No. 6 in DVOA, haters), but this line seems a point or two too high. Would it be that surprising to see the Chargers win straight up?

Eagles (-11) over Raiders

The Eagles look broken and the Raiders are the NFL’s worst team. What fun. Geno Smith is unlikely to start this week for the Raiders, which actually might not be a bad thing. Still, I can’t take the Raiders. If there was ever a get-right spot for the Eagles, this is it. If they struggle here, they’re really in trouble.

Jaguars (-12.5) over Jets

Brady Cook might get the start for the Jets because Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor are hurt. Cook is an undrafted rookie who threw for 11 touchdowns in 12 games last season at Missouri. He’d be operating in an offense that hasn’t been good no matter who is playing at quarterback. Anything seems possible in this weird NFL season, but this is a bad spot for the Jets.

Cardinals (+9.5) over Texans

The problem with taking the Cardinals is it’s hard to figure out how they score on the NFL’s best defense. But it’s not like the Texans offense is a scoring bonanza either. Last week we took the Cardinals, based on the fact that a large number of their losses have been close. It didn’t work out last week. Let’s try again.

Broncos (+2.5) over Packers

The Broncos certainly aren’t without flaws, but a 2.5-point home underdog? That’s surprising. Both 11-2 teams are underdogs at home this week, which says a lot about the wide-open nature of the NFL this season. Another factor in backing Denver: The Packers play at Chicago in Week 16 for what practically amounts to the NFC North title game. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they have an eye on that game.

Lions (+5.5) over Rams

This one is an even more extreme look-ahead spot. The Rams play at Seattle four days after this game in a meeting that could determine the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Rams are a veteran team with a great coach, but how could they not be thinking a little bit about that game? Also, the Lions have extra rest after playing on Thursday night, which is usually an edge. Even if the Rams play well, the Lions have a good enough offense to always be in play for a backdoor cover. Be careful if you’re taking the Rams here.

Panthers (-2.5) over Saints

The Panthers have had a really weird season, with multiple quality wins and some miserable losses. One of those losses came to the Saints, and it wasn’t all that close with New Orleans thoroughly outplaying Carolina in a 17-7 game. How could we know which Panthers team will show up? We’ll hope for the one that is fighting for a division title late in the season.

Titans (+12.5) over 49ers

The Titans have actually covered the spread in four of their last five games. It’s not a good team but one that is still playing hard. The 49ers should blast the Titans. But that’s not how the NFL typically works.

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Colts (+13.5) over Seahawks

The Colts have eight wins, and it wasn’t just because of Daniel Jones. They have been a pretty good team this season, despite a recent slide. Yes, it’s scary to depend on 44-year-old Philip Rivers or whoever plays quarterback against one of the NFL’s best defenses. It could get ugly. But as is said often in this space, double-digit underdogs usually look hopeless, and then they somehow cover.

Cowboys (-6) over Vikings

This game is proof that it would take a court order for the networks to flex a Cowboys game out of prime time. It’s time to test whether Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is turning a corner. He looked good last week, but that came against a really bad Commanders defense. If he can go on the road and have another positive outing against a Cowboys defense that has been better since the Quinnen Williams trade, maybe the narrative surrounding him will start to change. But let’s see it happen first.

Steelers (-3.5) over Dolphins

This is a strangely interesting game. The Dolphins started 1-6 but have rallied and aren’t dead in the playoff race at 6-7. The Steelers can have some awful games, but they lead the AFC North at 7-6. It’s a test for that Dolphins hot streak, considering they’ve been mostly beating bad teams and doing it with Tua Tagovailoa producing very little.

Last week: 6-8

Season to date: 106-98-6