Can the Wisconsin Badgers Defy Expectations and Dominate the 2025-26 Season?

Diving into the 2025-26 Big Ten basketball season, the Wisconsin Badgers find themselves at a familiar crossroads—solid in the regular season but still chasing that elusive postseason breakthrough. Since Greg Gard took the reins in 2015 following Bo Ryan’s unexpected departure, the Badgers have been the definition of consistency: always competitive, often surprising, yet unable to shake the curse of early NCAA Tournament exits. With a roster that’s undergone significant changes heading into this season—losing key scorers and welcoming fresh talent via the transfer portal and a promising recruiting class—the stakes have never been higher. Can Gard stir the pot enough to propel Wisconsin past its postseason stumbling blocks? The coming months promise challenges and opportunities alike, as the Badgers gear up to write a new chapter in their storied program. LEARN MORE

The 2025-26 ‘BTPowerhouse Season Preview’ series will take an in-depth look at all 18 teams in the Big Ten heading into the 2025-26 season with analysis on each program’s previous season, roster overhaul, and top storylines. Each post will also include predictions on each team’s postseason potential.

It was a surprise in 2015 when long time head coach Bo Ryan unexpectedly stepped down, handing the job to Greg Gard in the process. Gard did well enough taking over for Ryan, going 15-8 in his first season and getting the Badgers to the Sweet 16. He repeated that success in 2016-17 with the Badgers losing in the Sweet 16 on a buzzer beater against Florida. Since then Wisconsin has not made it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, also missing the tourney in 2018 and 2023.

Wisconsin has more or less fell into a routine with Gard where the team surprises in the regular season, contends towards the top of the Big Ten and earns a solid bid in the NCAA Tournament. Of course none of that matters as the team has repeatedly fallen short in the postseason, leading some to wonder if Badgers fans are starting to get restless with Gard.

Last Season

A hot start for the Badgers ultimately didn’t lead to a more successful March for Wisconsin as the program was once again consistent but couldn’t take the next step. In Greg Gard’s first two years as coach he took the Badgers to the regional semifinal of the NCAA Tournament. Since then he hasn’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, a trend that once again continued last season.

A hot 8-0 start with a win over a top ten Arizona fizzled in early December with three straight losses to Michigan, Marquette and Illinois. Wisconsin responded nicely with 7 straight wins, eventually topping off at 21-5 (11-4), before closing the season with a 2-3 stretch that included a loss at home to Penn State. Hoping to get things turned around for the postseason, the Badgers won three straight in the Big Ten Tournament before falling just short to Michigan in the conference title game.

When everything was said and done the Badgers earned a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and looked solid in a 19 point win in the first round. Once again the Badgers couldn’t get to the second weekend, though, dropping a game to BYU by 2 points in the round of 32.

Roster Overlook

Wisconsin fielded an explosive offense last season but will need to retool the roster on the fly if they want to match that level of output this winter. Gone is leading scorer John Tonje, who led the team with just under 20 points per game while shooting 39% from three. Notable departures also include center Steve Crowl, who stretch the floor with his ability to hit 42% of his three pointers. Max Klesmit struggled at times offensively but he was a solid piece in the backcourt for the Badgers and will also be missed.

Key Losses

G John Tonje (19.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 39% 3PT)
C Steve Crowl (9.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.4 APG, 42% 3PT)
G Max Klesmit (9.2 PPG, 2.7 APG, 29% 3PT)

Incoming Transfers

G Nick Boyd (San Diego State | 13.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.9 APG, 35% 3PT)
G Braeden Carrington (Tulsa | 7.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 34% 3PT)
F Elijah Gray (Temple | 9.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 30% 3PT)
F Austin Rapp (Portland | 13.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 35% 3PT)
G Andrew Rohde (Virginia | 9.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 2.9 RPG, 41% 3PT)

Incoming Freshmen

4-Star PF Aleksas Bieliauskas
4-Star SG Hayden Jones
3-Star C Will Garlock
4-Star SG Zach Kinziger

Notable Returning Players

G John Blackwell (15.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, 32% 3PT)
F Nolan Winter (9.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 36% 3PT)
G Jack Janicki (1.9 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.8 APG)

Greg Gard spent time in the transfer portal trying to add some depth to the roster. Guards Nick Boyd and Andrew Rhode both look like they will open the season in the starting lineup, with Boyd coming off of an impressive season with San Diego State. Rhode didn’t set the world on fire at Virginia but he still shot 41% from three last season. Austin Rapp enters from Portland after a strong freshman season that saw the 6’10 forward earn WCC Rookie of the Year honors. It’s expected that Rapp will get an early look in the frontcourt this winter.

Returning starters John Blackwell and Nolan Winter also return to the starting lineup, with Blackwell hoping to step up and take over the role Tonje had last year. Nolan Winter showed flashes last season and will likely see a larger offensive role in his junior season.

Wisconsin is bringing in three four-star recruits in their four man 2025 recruiting class. As of right now it’s expected that Gard will initially rely on some of his incoming transfers, but if Gard’s portal picks don’t pan out the Badgers have plenty of highly touted freshmen to help fill the void.

The Schedule

11/3 – Campbell
11/7 – Northern Illinois
11/11 – Ball State
11/17 – SIU-Edwardsville
11/21 – BYU (Bad Boy Mowers Series – Salt Lake City)
11/27 – Providence (Rady Children’s Invitational – San Diego)
11/28 – TCU or Florida (Rady Children’s Invitational – San Diego)
12/3 – Northwestern
12/6 – Marquette
12/10 – at Nebraska
12/19 – Villanova (Milwaukee Hoops Showdown – Milwaukee)
12/22 – Central Michigan
12/30 – Milwaukee
1/3 – Purdue
1/6 – UCLA
1/10 – at Michigan
1/13 – at Minnesota
1/17 – Rutgers
1/22 – at Penn State
1/25 – USC
1/28 – Minnesota
1/31 – Ohio State
2/7 – at Indiana
2/10 – at Illinois
2/13 – Michigan State
2/17 – at Ohio State
2/22 – Iowa
2/25 – at Oregon
2/28 – at Washington
3/4 – Maryland
3/7 – Purdue
3/10-15 – Big Ten Tournament (Chicago)

Wisconsin is set for a relatively eventful first two months of the season with a road trip to Salt Lake City against top ten BYU, followed by the Rady’s Children Invitational where they are set to draw Providence and then either Florida or TCU. A home outing against in-state rival Marquette and a game in Milwaukee against Villanova also highlight the early season. The Badgers also get a relatively soft open to conference play with Northwestern and Nebraska in early December.

Early 2026 should provide a considerable challenge for the Badgers with Purdue, UCLA and Michigan opening up the year. The rest of January should be much more manageable, with home games against USC and Ohio State likely the most difficult to close the month. Wisconsin does draw road-only outings against Illinois and Oregon, as well as closing the season with three of their last four games on the road, including a road trip to West Lafayette in the season finale.

Biggest Obstacle

Postseason success.

Wisconsin has effectively plateaued under Gard and even if the team has another strong regular season it will mean little in the grand scheme of things if they can’t make a run in the NCAA Tournament. And of course a deeper run in March seems like a bit of a longshot as this year’s Badgers team is rounded out in the portal and is seemingly missing some of the depth and spark that led to success last season.

Of course there’s plenty of talent entering both via the portal and high school. Will they hit the ground running though? And will it be enough to get to the next level in the postseason? Wisconsin seems to be a relatively well rounded team but there isn’t anyone entering the mix that seems like they could be the guy to help Wisconsin take the next step forward.

Realistic Expectations

With the relatively consistent success Gard has seen the Badgers will need to at least make it to the postseason and contend towards the top of the Big Ten. And while there are some questions, especially with heavy reliance on the transfer portal, Gard and company have done well enough in the past to get the benefit of the doubt.

At this point in Gard’s tenure the expectations most years will be to contend in the Big Ten and see a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament. While that is the bare minimum for most fans heading into any given year, Gard’s recent struggles in the postseason means the Badgers will likely need to make it to at least the Sweet 16 if he wants to feel a bit better about his standing in Madison.