Can Thompson and the Capitals Defy the Odds and Topple the Stars Tonight?

Ever notice how some nights in the NHL feel like a full-blown hockey festival, with almost every team suiting up and itching for ice time? Tonight’s one of those nights — a veritable smorgasbord of games that can make picking a winner feel like finding a needle in a haystack. But hey, that’s why I’m here. After slogging through lines and stats for years, I’ve zeroed in on the Capitals vs. Stars at 8:30 ET as tonight’s can’t-miss showdown. The Capitals look sharp early on, especially on the road, thanks in no small part to Logan Thompson’s standout goaltending. The Stars, meanwhile, are balancing momentum with a grueling schedule that might just catch up to them. Curious which side has the edge when the puck drops? Let’s dive deep and figure out why backing the hotter goalie — and the Capitals moneyline — might be the smartest play you make tonight. LEARN MORE

Capitals vs. Stars, 8:30 ET

There are a million hockey games tonight. I’m obviously exaggerating, but this is like a hockey showcase tonight as it seems like almost every team may be taking the ice for the NHL tonight. Choosing from those games can be really difficult because there are so many options. A true handicapper will take time to evaluate each game and see if there is an edge. Having done this for so long, I feel like I’ve been able to spot lines pretty well that seem off. The benefit you all have is that I’m doing the work for you, and I’ve picked the game between the Capitals and Stars as the one to focus on for tonight.

The Capitals are one of the better-looking teams early in the season with a solid 6-3-0 record, and they are undefeated on the road. It seems a bit strange to look at the last five games when teams have played fewer than 10 games, but I always like to examine it because it does give you a sense of how the team is playing currently. The Capitals are 3-2 over their past five and seem like an all-or-nothing team. They have allowed one goal to opponents in all three of their wins, but in the two losses, they’ve allowed 11 goals. Overall for the season, the team is averaging three goals per game, and allowing just 2.33 goals per game. They do outshoot their opponents by three shots per game, which is another stat I like to check out. Tonight, they are expected to have Logan Thompson in the net. He has been phenomenal to start the season with a solid 5-1-0 record, and leading the league with a 1.50 goals against per game average. He is also second in the league in save percentage at .938.

The Stars have gotten off to a decent start themselves with a 5-3-1 record to begin the year. They’ve had quite a bit of games at home to start the season, which might be something to keep in mind for later in the year. This is already their sixth game at home, and their record is 2-2-1. After dropping three straight games, they have won their past two. They did have three games in four nights recently, and this will be the fourth game in six nights. While that tends to matter more in basketball with effort, this still could prove to bring tired legs. The Stars are allowing 3.33 goals per game to opponents and also scoring three per game. Dallas also takes one fewer shot on average than their opponent. They are likely putting Jake Oettinger in the pipes tonight to try and get Dallas a win. For the season, Oettinger is 4-2-1 with a 2.99 goals against per game average and a .899 save percentage. He is typically one of the better goalies in the league, but he has allowed four goals in three games, two goals in three games, and three in the other.

I don’t feel like this is a game that I want to get involved in for the total. I could see this being a 1-0 win, or even a 4-2 victory, which gives too big of a range of possibilities, in my opinion. Instead, I want to back the hotter goalie. Thompson has been fantastic this season, and until he comes back down to earth, I think it is a great look to play the Capitals moneyline, especially when it is plus money or a low risk investment. Back the Capitals in this one.

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