Can Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars Defy the Odds and Dominate the AFC South?

Can the Jacksonville Jaguars really shake off last season’s mess and roar back to the top of the AFC South? With a fresh coaching staff led by Liam Coen and a shiny new general manager, the stakes couldn’t be higher — or more intriguing. I’m throwing down on two bold futures: the Jags to clinch the division at +300, and Trevor Lawrence snagging the 2025-26 NFL Comeback Player of the Year at +500. Sure, last year was brutal — who could forget the 4-13 record and the revolving door of head coaches? But here’s the kicker: with talent finally catching up and some nifty regressive luck on their side, this isn’t just a hopeful gambit; it’s a savvy play before the savvy players catch on. So is Liam Coen the charm Trevor Lawrence—and Jacksonville—desperately need, or just another fleeting hope? Sit tight, this ride is just warming up. LEARN MORE.

With a new coaching staff and general manager, I’m betting two futures for the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars. First, Jacksonville to win the AFC South (+300) at Kalshi and QB Trevor Lawrence to win the 2025-26 NFL Comeback Player of the Year (+500) at FanDuel. As a “Trevor Lawrence Truther,” I’m here to argue that his third head coach, Liam Coen, will be his lucky charm.

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The Jaguars were an abject disaster last year. They finished 4-13 with an 8.5-preseason win total, leading to the firing of former head coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke. Jacksonville was just 2-8 last year when Lawrence started. It was his worst season since his brutal rookie year, which got former Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer canned. 

Coen aims to replicate his success with QB Baker Mayfield as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator last season, with Lawrence in 2025-26. On his fourth team, Mayfield had career-bests in completion rate (71.4%), passing yards (4,500), passing touchdowns (41), and QB Rating (106.8) for Tampa last season. 

Like Mayfield, Lawrence is a No. 1 overall pick that people are leaving for dead. However, in defense of Lawrence, Jacksonville’s offensive line has been terrible in his four NFL seasons, and he finally has legit game-breakers to throw to, such as WR Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way rookie phenom, WR/CB Travis Hunter. 

Thomas would’ve won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in most seasons, but finished fourth in voting last year. He caught 87 balls for 1,282 receiving yards with 10 TDs as a rookie. If Hunter is as good as advertised — he is the fourth betting favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year — then the Jaguars could have a top-10 WR corp in the NFL this season. 

Also, led by new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, Jacksonville’s defense is primed for improvement. The Jaguars have a sneaky-good front seven, featuring two-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Josh Hines-Ward, former No. 1 overall pick, edge rusher Travon Walker, and LB Devin Lloyd, who was graded as the 13th-best linebacker in football by Pro Football Focus in 2024-25. 

Plus, Jacksonville has several regression factors in its favor. This includes a -15 turnover differential and a 3-10 record in one-score games last season. Typically, turnover luck and winning coin-flip games revert to the mean year over year. More importantly, the Jaguars have the sixth-easiest schedule this season by its opponents’ projected win totals, per Warren Sharp. 

At +300 to win the AFC South, down to +250, Jacksonville isn’t a longshot, it’s a live ‘dog. If you believe in bounce-backs, this is the time to buy Duval stock before the rest of the market catches on. Split a unit on the Jaguars winning their division and Lawrence winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year because if the first cashes, the second will likely hit, too. 

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