CFP First Round Showdowns: Which Underdog Will Shake Up the College Football Playoff?
Opta supercomputer’s win probability: Oklahoma 55.3%
No. 10 Miami (10-2) at No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)Â
The game-defining matchup: Texas A&M’s offense versus passing downs.
The Aggies scored a lot of points this year but got into trouble on passing downs.
On 3rd-and-5 or longer, the Aggies converted 21.3% of the time – the 122nd-best mark in FBS. Aggie quarterbacks (mostly Marcel Reed) took sacks on 9.5% of their drop backs on those downs.
Every offense wants to avoid long third downs, but A&M is really lousy on them. In fact, no other playoff team was worse than 73rd in the country (Georgia) in conversion rate on 3rd-and-5 or longer. Indiana led the nation at 47.4%.
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