CFP Shockers: Which Underdog Could Rewrite History This Playoff Season?
Year 2 of the 12-team College Football Playoff format has already stirred up a storm of debates — and honestly, there’s no hitting pause or rewind now. The landscape has shifted; seven out of the twelve teams entering this thrilling dance have what it takes to hoist the trophy, up from just five contenders last year. It’s wild to think Indiana, a team many wouldn’t have pegged as the country’s best, is leading the pack — and if an underdog like the No. 8 or 9 seed slips past them, well, it wouldn’t even raise too many eyebrows. This season’s playoff isn’t just about who’s good, it’s about who’s got that ceiling of wins that pushes them into championship territory. Curious how far each squad can realistically go? Using the brainpower of the Opta supercomputer, we’ve mapped out the exact wins ceiling for every team — starting at the bottom seed and marching all the way to No. 1. Ready for some surprising insights and maybe a few bold takes? Let’s dive in. LEARN MORE.
There’s already been much to debate in Year 2 of the 12-team format. But there’s no going back now. We’ve got the wins ceiling for each team in the College Football Playoff.
Of the 12 teams in this College Football Playoff, seven have a real chance to win it.
That’s more than the five that looked like they could be in title shape entering last year’s debut for the 12-team format.
The gap between college football’s elite and very good teams has shrunk under a new economic system. We’re living in a moment when Indiana is the best team in the country. But if the No. 8 or 9 team in the Playoff beat the Hoosiers, it wouldn’t even be that big of an upset.
So how far could all 12 teams go?
Let’s pick an exact wins ceiling with the help of the Opta supercomputer (as of Dec. 11), starting with the 12 seed and working our way down to No. 1.
No. 12 James Madison (12-1)
JMU’s Opening Game: at No. 5 Oregon, Dec. 20.
How Many Games Can They Win? Zero, sadly.
Why? The Dukes are great, and for a Sun Belt team, their physicality at the line of scrimmage is off the charts. They just do not have the same defensive weight, literally, that the Ducks have, and they’re likely to find themselves physically bullied out of Autzen Stadium unless coach Bob Chesney has the game plan of the millennium.
A crude way of measuring the difference between these teams: Oregon rosters seven defensive players listed at 300 pounds or more, anchored by 330-pound tackle A’Mauri Washington. JMU lists two, though one of them (second-team All-Sun Belt DT Immanuel Bush) is 348.
Oregon’s defensive tackle duo of Washington and Bear Alexander is going to provide an unfortunate counterweight to JMU running back Wayne Knight, the key player on the offense. The Dukes couldn’t run the ball or protect QB Alonza Barnett III (who was sacked on 17% of his drop backs) when they played a Power Four game against Louisville in September.
We all know what is going to happen here.
The Opta Supercomputer Says (as of Dec. 11):
- Opening Game Win Probability: 4.0%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 0.3%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: <0.1%
- Probability of Winning the Title: <0.1%
No. 11 Tulane (11-2)
Tulane’s Opening Game: at No. 6 Ole Miss, Dec. 20.
How Many Games Can They Win? It’d be a big upset, but one.
Why? Ole Miss will physically overmatch the Green Wave, just as the Rebels did in beating Tulane 45-10 back in Week 4.
But while both teams have had a weird few weeks of coaching turnover, Tulane’s coach is at least on the sideline. That’s Jon Sumrall, who will coach for Florida against LSU’s Lane Kiffin in the years to come.
If I’m scouting for an upset possibility in one of these Group of Five games, I’m taking the game where staff turmoil could create unforeseen wrinkles.
Unlikely, yes, but more possible here.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Opening Game Win Probability: 18.3%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 3.3%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: <0.1%
- Probability of Winning the Title: <0.1%
No. 10 Miami (10-2)
Canes’ Opening Game: at No. 7 Texas A&M, Dec. 20.
How Many Games Can They Win? Four
Why? Miami has legit national championship potential, though a first-round matchup at No. 7 Texas A&M also means this could be a quick ride.
Miami’s Reuben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor (94) are the second-best pressure-generating tandem in college football this year. This is a pass-rusher’s sport, and even against a sturdy A&M offensive line with an All-SEC tackle in Trey Zuhn, it’s wise to take Miami seriously because of its defensive game-wreckers.
They’ll make it very hard for any team to blow the Canes out. Even when Carson Beck threw four picks in a loss to Louisville, Miami was in the game until the final minute.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Opening Game Win Probability: 69.0%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 11.3%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 6.4%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 2.2%
No. 9 Alabama (10-3)
Bama’s Opening Game: at No. 8 Oklahoma, Dec. 19.
How Many Games Can They Win? One. Two if they get rolling.
Why? Alabama has a 36.2% rushing success rate and 3.9% explosive run rate, both well below the power conference average. Two of the Tide’s top three running backs have recently been injured, though it sounds like starter Jam Miller could play against No. 8 Oklahoma.
A team that hasn’t been able to run the ball all season will not suddenly learn how to do it in the CFP. QB Ty Simpson is great when he’s good, and receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams could make enough big plays (as long as Williams doesn’t drop the ball) to get the Tide through Oklahoma.
But I’d be really surprised if they could beat OU’s elite defense and then beat No. 1 Indiana, which will be more rested, in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Opening Game Win Probability: 44.7%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 7.0%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 2.2%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 0.3%
No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)
OU’s Opening Game: vs. No. 9 Alabama, Dec. 19.
How Many Games Can They Win? Much like Bama, one. Two if they get rolling.
Why? Oklahoma’s defense could win the whole thing. The problem is that it’s saddled with Oklahoma’s offense, which has been in a tailspin since John Mateer’s midseason hand surgery and never really got going in the first place.
A team this offensively challenged doesn’t win the championship. But OU has already beaten Alabama once and could get back its best defensive player in R Mason Thomas. His 26.6% pressure rate was second in the SEC behind Ole Miss’ Princewill Umanmielen.
Also, Sooners kicker Tate Sandell is a freak, and receiver Isaiah Sategna provides punt return value, too. That’s enough to beat Bama and give Indiana a good run, but not to win the tournament.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Opening Game Win Probability: 55.3%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 7.2%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 1.8%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 0.4%
No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)
Aggies’ Opening Game: vs. No. 10 Miami, Dec. 20.
How Many Games Can They Win? Four.
Why? It’s a bit of a stretch to imagine the Aggies winning the national championship, but I think they’re well-rounded enough not to dismiss out of hand.
The defensive front is one of the best in the country, anchored by edge Cassius Howell (20.4% pressure rate) and with an elite pair of inside linebackers, Tauren York and Daymion Sanford (a combined 31 run stuffs), behind him.
Quarterback Marcel Reed has accuracy issues to the tune of a below-average 73.8% well-thrown rate, but he can be electric as both a thrower and a runner, and he’s done a fine job avoiding sacks (a 2.9% sack rate overall, with above-average avoidance when pressured).
Receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion are really good.
There’s a clear potential weakness in the form of an 8.9% explosive play rate allowed, one of the worst in the Power Four. But it doesn’t require a miracle for A&M to go on a big run.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Opening Game Win Probability: 31.0%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 1.8%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 0.7%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 0.1%
No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1)
Rebels’ Opening Game: vs. No. 11 Tulane, Dec. 20.
How Many Games Can They Win? Two.
Why? Ole Miss should get a stress-free win against Tulane in the first round, but then the draw gets really hard. The quarterfinal opponent would be a Georgia team that already beat the Rebels, and the semifinal opponent could be anyone but might well be Ohio State.
The longer Ole Miss’ run gets, the more taxing it’ll be on an offensive coaching staff that’s simultaneously working for LSU. This all just feels like a tall order. Also, despite having the SEC’s second-leading rusher in Kewan Lacy, the ground game has had down-to-down efficiency problems all year.
That could leave them offensively stranded at some point. But Umanmielen and the defense will make this team a hard out, whenever it finally does go out.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Opening Game Win Probability: 81.7%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 31.8%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 4.0%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 0.6%
No. 5 Oregon (11-1)
Ducks’ Opening Game: vs. No. 12 JMU, Dec. 20.
How Many Games Can They Win? Four.
Why? Size, talent, and roster construction. The Ducks will eventually get over the hump and win a championship, so why not now?
Last year’s team was undone in a Rose Bowl blowout against Ohio State. The Ducks’ biggest weakness in that game, among many, was an inability to stop the Buckeyes’ vertical passing game to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.
An off-season transfer pickup of Purdue’s Dillon Thieneman, an All-American safety, has mitigated that problem this time around.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Opening Game Win Probability: 96.0%
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 63.0%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 30.0%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 15.3%
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)
Tech’s Opening Game: Quarterfinals vs. TBD, Jan. 1.
How Many Games Can They Win? Three, which is all they need.
Why? The best thing Miami has going for it is going even better in Lubbock. Texas Tech’s David Bailey and Romello Height have generated 115 combined pressures, making them the leading pressure duo in the sport this year.
Of all of the players Tech’s boosters paid to acquire in the transfer portal last winter, these two have been by far the most transformative. Bailey is America’s best pass rusher right now (18 adjusted sacks), and Height (13) is good enough to balance out protections opposite him. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is also a star, and defensive tackle Lee Hunter has a mammoth 22 run stuffs to lead the team.
Arguably, that defense isn’t even the team’s best unit, as the offense has hummed along behind mistake-light QB Behren Morton and tailback Cameron Dickey.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 36.7%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 13.0%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 4.6%
No. 3 Georgia (12-1)
UGa’s Opening Game: Quarterfinals vs. TBD, Jan. 1.
How Many Games Can They Win? Three.
Why? Gunner Stockton doesn’t risk much. His 7.1 average air yards make him one of the SEC’s least downfield-oriented passers.
But Stockton avoids turnovers (2.9% pickable pass rate) at a high level and seems to be under strict instructions not to mess anything up for Georgia’s defense.
Here’s something that makes me fear Georgia: The defense gave up a conversion on 40.7% of its third downs in September, 43.2% in October, 27.9% in November, and 21.4% in December to date.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 64.9%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 12.9%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 2.3%
No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
OSU’s Opening Game: Quarterfinals vs. TBD, Dec. 31.
How Many Games Can They Win? Three.Â
Why? Even by Ohio State standards, this year’s defense is excellent. Not that it usually needs to be, with Jeremiah Smith catching passes on the other side of the ball.
But the Buckeyes will be hard for any team in the Playoff to score on, as evidenced by the only team that’s beaten them doing so while scoring 13 points.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 86.9%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 76.0%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 45.3%
No. 1 Indiana (13-0)
IU’s Opening Game: Quarterfinals vs. TBD, Jan. 1.
How Many Games Can They Win? Three.Â
Why? The Hoosiers have a chance to become the first 16-0 team in college history. They are, to date, a perfect football team.
There’s no need to explain why they could win three more games and the whole thing. So, for an alternative, let’s talk about one potential weakness: injury luck.
As he jumped up to give high fives to fans after the Big Ten Championship, defensive lineman Stephen Daley suffered a knee injury that will cost him the rest of his season. Daley led the team with 21 run stuffs and had an 18.4% pressure rate. Indiana has significant line depth, but there’s a reason Daley has taken the most snaps (508) on the entire defense.
Overcoming his loss would make for a good chapter in the book of the 2025 Hoosiers if they could close this thing out.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 85.8%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 53.0%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 28.9%
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post CFP Predictions: How Far Each Team Could Go in This Year’s Playoff appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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