CFP Shockers: Which Underdog Could Rewrite Playoff History This Year?
Here’s something that makes me fear Georgia: The defense gave up a conversion on 40.7% of its third downs in September, 43.2% in October, 27.9% in November, and 21.4% in December to date.
The Opta Supercomputer Says:
- Probability of Reaching the Semis: 64.9%
- Probability of Reaching the Final: 12.9%
- Probability of Winning the Title: 2.3%
No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
OSU’s Opening Game: Quarterfinals vs. TBD, Dec. 31.
How Many Games Can They Win? Three.
Why? Even by Ohio State standards, this year’s defense is excellent. Not that it usually needs to be, with Jeremiah Smith catching passes on the other side of the ball.

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