Cinderella Stories or Chalk Picks: Unveiling the 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament Contenders

Here’s my intro for this exciting article:

Do we really know who will dance in '25? Honestly, predicting the winners of each conference tournament for the NCAA men’s basketball is not just a numbers game, it’s an art. A ballet of statistics, team performance and, let’s face it, the mystical intervention of luck. But hold onto your brackets, folks, as we dive into this wild ride of predictions:

We’re talking upsets. Buzzer-beaters. The kind of Cinderella stories that make March Madness, well, mad. And with our supercomputer cranking out numbers like it’s trying to predict the end of the world, we’re about to reveal who’s poised to punch their ticket to the Big Dance…

Did I mention the cream? Yes, the cream will rise, but what about those frothy teams, bubbling under? The teams teettering on the bubble? And let’s not forget the dark horses, those teams every so often that surprise us all.

To do this, we’ve simulated each conference tournament numerous times using the Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster (TRACR). It’s an efficiency metric that looks at points per possession, not just painting the picture of what could be, but what probably will be. And my, there’s a cornucopia of data we’re dealing with here; points per possession are just the tip of the iceberg…

But before we get too lost in the numbers, let’s pause for a moment and ponder: why do we love this so much? It’s more than just sports; it’s a narrative, a drama that unfolds with each sweep, buzzer-beater, and improbable run. As we sift through the probabilities and percentages, there’s something magical at play:

It’s the thrill of the unexpected, the teams shooting their shot, the ones who find themselves in a position to steal the show, making March Madness the roller-coaster it is. The analytics help, but it’s the human element that makes this so compelling. The fear of a bubble bursting, the elation of making it in, the spirit of teams you’ve maybe never heard of taking on the giants, hoping to cut the nets down for the very first time…

So grab your calculators, make room for a little magic, and prepare to dive into our conference-by-conference predictions. Will Auburn’s resume shine brighter than Alabama’s firepower, or will some unheralded contender steal the SEC show? Is Duke’s powerhouse too formidable for the rest of the ACC, or will Cinderella decide she’s tired of cleaning floors? And what of the MoVal, where a coach with upwards of ten national titles could guide Drake to another unlikely dance?

Take a deep breath, because we’re going to dive into it, starting with the first league tournaments hitting the hardwood this week. Which teams are the favorites to win? The answer, as with all good things in life, lies in a careful blend of science, strategy, and that undeniable sprinkling of sports magic.

Let’s start this party. LEARN MORE

Weâre diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputerâs favorites are in our NCAA menâs basketball conference tournament predictions.

Upsets. Buzzer-beaters. Improbable runs. Epic performances.

March Madness begins with conference tournament play that will go a long way toward determining seeds and who will get into 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Cinderellas will sneak in, bubbles will burst, and the cream will rise to the top.

Leagues like the SEC and ACC will have teams doing all they can to boost their resumes for Selection Sunday. Others will need to win their tournament in order to be one of 68. And sure, there are some teams that are locks to make the Big Dance but looking to improve their seeding.

Weâve simulated each conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It is a net efficiency metric that calculates a teamâs points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions above or below average a team is. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.

Weâre going to dive through each conference, starting with the first league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our model’s favorites are. The teams within each conference are ranked by the highest probability of winning the league tournament, with that probability in parentheses.

Note: Conference tournament odds for each team are their projected odds entering the conference tournament. Some conferences are still finishing their regular season. These projections will continually update after the end of each conferenceâs regular season.

AAC

Memphis (42.5%)
North Texas (20.3%)
UAB (9.5%)
FAU (7.8%)
Tulane (6.4%)
Temple (4.0%)
Wichita State (3.6%)
East Carolina (2.7%)
UTSA (1.6%)
Tulsa (0.9%)
South Florida (0.5%)
Charlotte (0.4%)
Rice (0.3%)

Which side of Penny Hardaway’s squad will we see in the AAC tournament? Memphis has wins over UConn, Clemson and Ole Miss, and it had little trouble in conference play, going 16-2. It also has losses against Arkansas State, at Temple and at Wichita State. Still, the Tigers can get into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large, likely as a No. 8 or 9 seed.

North Texas could spell trouble for a tournament title for Memphis. The Mean Green had won seven in a row before dropping their last regular season game against Temple. They hold opponents to 59.5 points per game, third-lowest in Division I. Ross Hodge looks to get his school back to the NCAA Tournament after three straight seasons in the NIT.

Atlantic 10

VCU (40.8%)
Dayton (20.3%)
Saint Joseph’s (9.6%)
George Mason (7.8%)
Loyola Chicago (6.6%)
George Washington (4.5%)
Saint Louis (4.4%)
St. Bonaventure (1.7%)
Duquesne (1.7%)
Rhode Island (1.1%)
Massachusetts (0.3%)
La Salle (0.3%)
Richmond (0.1%)
Davidson (<0.1%)
Fordham (<0.1%)

VCU may be the favorite, but Dayton ended the regular season with a road win against the Rams. The Flyers have wins over No. 2 UConn and No. 6 Marquette as well. It is possible that both teams get in if they meet in the tournament final and Dayton wins, as there is a low chance that the Rams still get an at-large bid.

Last season, Indiana State missed its shot at the NCAA Tournament by losing to Drake in the Missouri Valley final. Josh Schertz went over to Saint Louis and brought some of the team with him, notably fan favorite Robbie Avila. Saint Louis won four of its last five games of the regular season, but too many close losses dropped the team out of a chance at a double bye in the conference tournament. TRACR gives the Billikens only a 4.35% chance of going dancing.

Big East

St. John’s (31.8%)
UConn (18.9%)
Marquette (17.5%)
Creighton (12.7%)
Xavier (9.9%)
Villanova (5.4%)
Georgetown (1.4%)
Butler (1.3%)
DePaul (0.9%)
Providence (0.6%)
Seton Hall (0.2%)

What a season for St. Johnâs â its four losses have been by a combined seven points! It ended the regular season with a buzzer beater at Marquette. The Red Storm have 10 wins this season while making fewer than five 3s. Sometimes Rick Pitinoâs squad does it differently, but it has played close no matter what.

St. Johnâs will be the favorite at Madison Square Garden, but it will not be easy. UConn has been up-and-down all season, but freshman star Liam McNeeley is healthy again and helped the team win its last four games.

One of the most intriguing matchups of this tournament will be Marquette against Xavier â the Musketeers saved their NCAA Tournament chances by winning their last seven games and look to get at least one win in the Big East tournament to avoid staying on the bubble.

This will be the final Big East tournament for Creightonâs Ryan Kalkbrenner. The 7-foot-1 senior is second in school history in points (2352), third in rebounds (1113) and second in blocks (386). He had one of the best games of the season in Creightonâs first game, finishing with 49 points and 11 rebounds while going 20 for 22 from the field against UT Rio Grande Valley.

The stars will be out in New York City this year. A strong performance from Xavier should help the Big East get five teams in the NCAA Tournament. A tournament win for St. Johnâs could put it as high as a 2 seed.

Big Ten

Michigan State (24.9%)
Maryland (17.1%)
Illinois (12.1%)
UCLA (9.8%)
Purdue (9.4%)
Wisconsin (7.7%)
Michigan (7.6%)
Oregon (4.2%)
Indiana (2.8%)
Northwestern (1.6%)
Ohio State (1.4%)
USC (0.6%)
Rutgers (0.6%)
Minnesota (0.3%)
Iowa (0.2%)

The expansion of the Big Ten while maintaining the same tournament structure means that three teams will not play in the tournament: Washington, Penn State and Nebraska. The Cornhuskers caught a bad break, tying with four other teams at 7-13 in conference play but losing the tiebreakers with those five. They lost their last five games, including a 116-114 double overtime heartbreaker to Ohio State.

TRACR gives the edge to Tom Izzo, who became the Big Tenâs all-time winningest coach this season. The Spartans are hitting their stride, ending the regular season on a seven-game winning streak, six against probable NCAA Tournament teams. The key for Michigan State is getting to the 70-point mark â it is 24-0 when scoring at least 70 points.

Maryland might be the team to watch out for here and in the NCAA Tournament. The Terrapins have won seven of their last eight, with the lone loss a crazy one. Still, that was not even the worst buzzer-beating loss that they have ever had against Michigan State. The key has been the big men â senior star Julian Reese and freshman phenom Derik Queen. Not many coaches have the frontcourt that Kevin Willard has.

The other big question is seeing which Illinois and Wisconsin teams show up. These were the two teams in last yearâs championship game, with Illinois winning after the Badgers had upset Purdue. Illinois has been dominant in parts of the season and real weak in others â a team-wide illness might be the main reason as to why.

Wisconsin has had one of the best offensive seasons in school history, hitting a record number of 3s while also shooting 83.6% from the free-throw line, which would be a Division I record. After losing star players AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin gained one of the best transfers of the year in John Tonje. However, the Badgers have lost three of their last five, including a winnable game against Oregon and a bad home defeat to Penn State.

Big West

UC San Diego (50.2%)
UC Irvine (32.1%)
CSUN (8.5%)
UC Riverside (4.3%)
Cal Poly (2.4%)
UC Santa Barbara (1.6%)
UC Davis (0.6%)
Bakersfield (0.5%)

Need an upset pick in your NCAA bracket? Choose UC San Diego or UC Irvine. The Tritons are 28-4 on the season and have won 13 in a row. They have outscored opponents by an average of 18.4 points, second-highest in Division I behind Duke (22.1).

TRACR has loved UCSD all season. The best part? This would be the first time the Tritons are eligible for the NCAA Tournament, as they recently moved to Division I. What a chance for Eric Olenâs squad.

UC Irvine has also had an impressive season, going 27-5 overall and 17-3 in conference play. The Anteaters have two NCAA Tournament appearances in the schoolâs history. In their most recent appearance back in 2019, they upset Kansas State as a No. 13 seed in the first round.

MEAC

South Carolina State (35.9%)
Norfolk State (34.9%)
Delaware State (9.2%)
Howard (7.6%)
North Carolina Central (5.2%)
Morgan State (4.1%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (1.9%)
Coppin State (1.4%)

Despite the fact that the Spartans are the top seed and games are played in Norfolk, TRACR prefers South Carolina State over Norfolk State, but just barely. The two teams met twice in the regular season, and both were close â the Spartans won the first matchup, 67-65 in overtime, while the Bulldogs won the latest matchup on March 1, 91-88. These two teams split a share of the regular season MEAC title.

It has been an impressive turnaround for Erik Martinâs Bulldogs this season. South Carolina State has won nine in a row by an average of 18.7 points. It will need a strong performance from Omar Croskey, who has averaged 14.9 points while shooting 43.% from 3 during the nine-game winning streak.

Whichever team makes it out of the MEAC will likely head into the NCAA Tournament as a No. 15 or 16 seed.

Mountain West

Colorado State (23.5%)
New Mexico (21.7%)
Utah State (20.4%)
San Diego State (13.0%)
Boise State (12.8%)
Nevada (4.2%)
UNLV (3.9%)
San Jose State (0.4%)
Wyoming (0.4%)
Fresno State (<0.1%)
Air Force (<0.1%)

It feels like every season the Mountain West is up for grabs. This year, five teams have at least a 12% chance to win the conference tournament. New Mexico won the regular season title, but TRACR gives a slight edge to Colorado State, which has won seven in a row â the last four by double digits.

How many Mountain West teams make the NCAA Tournament? Last year, the conference brought in six teams, two of which were part of the First Four. Of those six, three won a tournament game â San Diego State was the only team to make it out of the first weekend.

It is likely that three teams are in already â New Mexico, Utah State and San Diego State. The Aztecs may be one of those teams playing in the First Four. Colorado State and Boise State will likely have to make at least the final to be considered. The Rams just beat Utah State by 27 on March 1 and the Broncos beat New Mexico and Utah State over their last six games.

SEC

Auburn (30.1%)
Alabama (23.1%)
Florida (20.4%)
Tennessee (12.2%)
Kentucky (3.8%)
Texas A&M (3.0%)
Missouri (3.0%)
Ole Miss (1.0%)
Arkansas (0.8%)
Mississippi State (0.8%)
Vanderbilt (0.6%)
Georgia (0.6%)
Oklahoma (0.4%)
Texas (0.3%)
South Carolina (0.2%)
LSU (<0.1%)

One of the strongest performances in conference history, the SEC could feature 12, maybe even 13 teams in the NCAA Tournament. From Alabama beating Auburn at the buzzer to end the regular season to Florida beating No. 1 Tennessee by 30 to John Calipari beating Kentucky in Lexington, this season has had it all.

Auburn lost its final two games, but TRACR still gives it the edge thanks to its impressive resume. The Tigers had 16 Quad 1 wins, four more than any other team in Division I. What a season for Bruce Pearl, who should be a favorite for AP Coach of the Year.

Tennessee had amazing success with the transfer portal last season, getting Dalton Knecht from Northern Colorado. This season, Rick Barnes brought in Chaz Lanier, a Tennessee native who played four seasons at North Florida. Lanier has averaged 17.9 points, fifth in the conference.

Alabama and Florida may be fighting for the last No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. After showcasing his skills in the Final Four last year, Mark Sears had another strong performance in his final year in college basketball, averaging 19.2 points and 5.0 rebounds. The Crimson Tide went just 3-4 in their last seven games, but those four losses were against ranked teams. The D-I leader in scoring at 91.2 points per game could outscore any team in the tournament.

Florida has wins over the three teams with double byes â Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama. Todd Goldenâs team can do it all, having scored 90 points eight times and holding opponents to 60 or fewer nine times. Grabbing Alijah Martin from FAU has been a major difference; he’s averaging 14.5 points and 4.7 rebounds.

Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Oklahoma are on the bubble, with the Sooners having the most to lose. Porter Moserâs team opened 13-0 with impressive wins against Arizona, Louisville and Michigan at neutral sites. It went just 6-12 in SEC play, though, with five of those losses coming by fewer than five points. A win against Georgia in the first round should help secure a bid.

MAC

Kent State (27.4%)
Akron (25.5%)
Miami (OH) (16.8%)
Ohio (11.2%)
Bowling Green (5.8%)
Eastern Michigan (5.4%)
Toledo (4.1%)
Western Michigan (4.1%)

John Groceâs Akron squad has gone back and forth with Rob Senderoffâs Kent State teams over the last few conference tournaments. The Zips handled the Golden Flashes in the 2022 MAC championship, winning by 20. In the following tournament, Kent State took down Akron in the semifinal en route to winning the title.

But last season was especially cruel. Kent State took a 61-60 lead with 6.2 seconds left in the MAC final. Right when the Zips got the ball in to try and win it with little time left, Kent Stateâs Julius Rollins forgot the score and how many fouls the team had to give and fouled Akron right away. The Zips made their two free throws and won. Heartbreak.

TRACR gives the Golden Flashes a 27.4% chance at redemption.

Ivy League

Yale (51.4%)
Cornell (26.2%)
Dartmouth (14.1%)
Princeton (8.4%)

This is Yaleâs tournament to lose. The Bulldogs are 14-1 since the start of 2025, with their lone loss coming against Harvard. They beat Cornell, Dartmouth and Princeton twice in that span.

A possible final between Cornell and Yale would be an offensive showcase. Cornell averages 85.0 points while Yale is averaging 82.2. In the last 25 seasons, the only other Ivy League schools to average over 80.0 points are Yale in 2018-19 (80.9) and Cornell in 2022-23 (81.7) and 2023-24 (82.1). The Bulldogs averaged 97.5 points in their two wins over the Big Red this season.

ACC

Duke (63.7%)
Louisville (14.5%)
Clemson (11.0%)
North Carolina (4.4%)
Wake Forest (2.2%)
SMU (1.7%)
Pittsburgh (0.8%)
Stanford (0.5%)
Florida State (0.4%)
Georgia Tech (0.3%)
California (0.2%)
Syracuse (0.2%)
Notre Dame (0.2%)
Virginia (0.2%)
Virginia Tech (0.1%)

Dukeâs womenâs squad surprised many in the ACC tournament this year, upsetting both Notre Dame and NC State to win its first conference tournament since 2013. If the menâs team wins, it will not be as much of a surprise.

Not only do the Blue Devils rank first in TRACR but they lead by a wide margin. They will be the favorites to win it all in the NCAA Tournament thanks to stellar play from Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor. Flagg is likely to be the top pick in this yearâs NBA draft.

This seasonâs Duke squad is similar to its 2018-19 squad that featured freshman phenoms Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. That team was the No. 1 overall seed in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, but it fell short in the Elite Eight. This yearâs team might be less flashy but even better â they have Flagg and Knueppel as freshmen stars but also brought in solid transfers in Sion James from Tulane and Mason Gillis from Purdue. Plus, these Blue Devils can shoot, leading the ACC in 3-point percentage at 38.7%.

Still not convinced? Since losing to Clemson on Feb. 8, Duke has won eight in a row, outscoring opponents by an average of 29.5 points. That includes a 43-point blowout against Illinois in Madison Square Garden. Sheesh.

The rest of the ACC had somewhat of a down year â it is likely that only three teams make it to the NCAA Tournament, which would be the fewest by the conference since 2000.

Still, it was a great season for those three. Clemson went 26-5 in the regular season and could make it back to the Elite Eight again. Pat Kelseyâs first year at Louisville was tremendous, completely turning around a school that went under .500 in three consecutive seasons. Bringing in Terrence Edwards Jr. from James Madison and Chucky Hepburn from Wisconsin helped the Cardinals go 25-6 in the regular season and 18-2 in conference play.

Big 12

Houston (29%)
Texas Tech (21.6%)
Arizona (14.4%)
Iowa State (10.9%)
BYU (10.8%)
Kansas (7.8%)
Baylor (2.6%)
West Virginia (1.6%)
Utah (0.4%)
Cincinnati (0.3%)
Kansas State (0.3%)
Colorado (0.2%)
UCF (0.2%)
Arizona (0.2%)
TCU (0.1%)
Oklahoma State (0.1%)

It may no longer be the case that the Big 12 is Division Iâs best conference. The Big 12 ranks third in average TRACR after being the top conference for the last four seasons. What happened?

One could point to the transfer portal as a hinderance for the Big 12. Kansas brought in top transfer prospect AJ Storr from Wisconsin â he went from averaging 16.8 points last season to just 5.6 points this season and was moved out of Bill Selfâs rotation. Kansas State looked to get presence on both sides of the ball from Coleman Hawkins, a transfer from Illinois, but the Wildcats find themselves hovering around .500. Miami (FL) transfer Norchad Omier has been great for Baylor this season, leading the team in scoring, but too many close losses dropped the Bears to 10-10 in conference play.

Still, there are many teams in this league that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Kelvin Sampson has led Houston to another successful season, with the most impressive achievement being a perfect 10-0 on the road. Texas Tech is 24-7 on the season, with all seven losses coming by single digits. The Red Raiders could be a big threat in this tournament and in the Big Dance. BYU has been on fire lately, winning eight in a row while averaging 85.1 points.

While TRACR might not see this conference as the best, there are still many teams that could make a deep run in March.

Conference USA

Liberty (31.2%)
Middle Tennessee (15.8%)
Louisiana Tech (13.4%)
New Mexico State (12.1%)
Jacksonville State (10.4%)
Kennesaw State (8.2%)
Western Kentucky (3.6%)
Sam Houston (3.0%)
UTEP (2.0%)
FIU (0.4%)

Liberty, Liberty, Liberty! The Flames won the regular season title and look to make it back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021 when they were a member of the Atlantic Sun. They are 11-2 since Jan. 18, shooting 38.0% from 3 while holding their opponents to 25.0% from beyond the arc. The 3-point percentage allowed over that span is the second lowest by any team in Division I, behind only San Francisco (23.7%).

Liberty could be a dangerous 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament but might fall to a 13 seed. Any other winner of this tournament will likely be a 13 or 14 seed.

MAAC

Merrimack (25.2%)
Quinnipiac (15.6%)
Manhattan (14.1%)
Mount St. Mary’s (13.2%)
Iona (9.9%)
Marist (8.2%)
Sacred Heart (5.8%)
Siena (4.1%)
Rider (2.1%)
Fairfield (1.9%)

Quinnipiac won the regular season title despite losing two of its last three games. One of those games came on the road against Merrimack, a team the Bobcats beat at home back in January.

Joe Galloâs Warriors are 3-4 over their last seven, but all four losses came by five or fewer points. It would be the first NCAA Tournament appearance for Merrimack or Quinnipiac.

This could be the toughest battle for Merrimack since 1862.

SWAC

Southern (23.7%)
Alabama State (17.0%)
Bethune-Cookman (16.0%)
Jackson State (14.5%)
Texas Southern (10.1%)
Florida A&M (6.7%)
Alcorn State (6.4%)
Grambling State (4.7%)
Prairie View A&M (0.6%)
Alabama A&M (0.4%)

TRACR rates the SWAC as the worst conference in Division I, with an average rating of minusâ20.8. Still, this could be a fun conference tournament to watch as five different teams have at least a 10% chance of dancing.

A dark horse could be Bethune-Cookman. Trey Thomas averaged 19.2 points in conference play in his first season in the SWAC after two years at Hampton.

Winner of this tournament will likely be a play-in 16 seed.

WAC

Grand Canyon (34.1%)
Utah Valley (25.0%)
Seattle (16.2%)
California Baptist (10.8%)
UT Arlington (5.7%)
Abilene Christian (4.9%)
Tarleton State (2.1%)
Utah Tech (0.8%)
Southern Utah (0.5%)

Utah Valley won the regular season title thanks to ending the regular season on an eight-game winning streak. This would be the first trip to the NCAA Tournament in school history.

Bryce Drew is looking to take Grand Canyon to its third consecutive NCAA Tournament and is favored by TRACR. The Antelopes beat Utah Valley by 18 on Feb. 1 after the Wolverines won the first matchup of the season by eight. A possible rematch between the two teams would come in the WAC Final.

The winner of this tournament will likely be a 13 or 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Missouri Valley

Drake (31.7%)
UNI (21.9%)
Bradley (19.3%)
Belmont (8.3%)
Murray State (5.7%)
Illinois State (4.7%)
Southern Illinois (2.6%)
UIC (2.1%)
Missouri State (1.2%)
Indiana State (1.1%)
Valparaiso (1.0%)
Evansville (0.8%)

Ever wonder how a team from Division II might fare in Division I play? That is essentially how you can view this yearâs Drake squad.

The Bulldogs have reached each of the last two NCAA Tournaments, led by Darian DeVries and his son, Tucker. The father-son duo went to West Virginia in the offseason, leading Drake to sign one of the best coaches in Division II history.

Ben McCollum won four Division II titles with Northwest Missouri State, most recently in 2022. His coaching style involves taking the most efficient shot no matter how much time is left on the shot clock, pressuring opponents, and guarding the three-point line. The Bulldogs lead the Missouri Valley in steals (8.9 per game), turnover margin (+2.4), and opponent three-point percentage (.315). They are led by Bennett Stirtz, who came with McCollum from DII â Stirtz currently ranks fifth in our CBK WAR.

A conference tournament win for Drake would make it a pesky 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament. One team that might hold them back is Bradley â Brian Wardle has led the Braves to an Arch Madness title as a four seed and a five seed before. They beat Drake on the road on February 16, helping them earn a two seed in this yearâs tournament.

CAA

UNCW (25.6%)
Charleston (19.2%)
Towson (17.3%)
William & Mary (9.3%)
Elon (5.9%)
Hampton (5.6%)
Drexel (5.2%)
Campbell (4.5%)
Northeastern (2.4%)
Monmouth (2.3%)
Hofstra (2.2%)
Delaware (0.5%)
Stony Brook (0.2%)
North Carolina A&T (0.2%)

Charleston has won the last two conference tournaments, though Pat Kelsey left in the offseason to coach Louisville. The Cougars replaced him with former Louisville head coach Chris Mack, who has won multiple NCAA Tournament games in four different seasons.

Southern

Chattanooga (22.8%)
UNCG (19.9%)
Furman (15.5%)
Samford (14.3%)
East Tennessee State (14.0%)
Wofford (11.4%)
VMI (0.9%)
Mercer (0.9%)
Western Carolina (0.3%)
Citadel (0.2%)

The SoCon is up for grabs, with TRACR giving six different teams at least a 10% chance of winning. SoCon teams have always been an integral part of March, from Chattanoogaâs miraculous win two years ago to Furmanâs dramatic upset against Virginia in last yearâs NCAA Tournament.

America East

Bryant (39.9%)
Vermont (17.8%)
Maine (12.6%)
Albany (12.0%)
UMass Lowell (10.1%)
UMBC (4.1%)
Binghamton (3.1%)
New Hampshire (0.6%)

This is just the second time in the last nine seasons when a team other than Vermont won the America East regular season title, with the other being UMBC in 2020-21. The Catamounts have won the last three tournaments and four of the last five, while Bryant has only one NCAA Tournament appearance (back in 2022 when it was in the NEC).

Bryantâs Earl Timberlake might be the one to watch in this tournament. Heâs one of three players in Division I (minimum 20 games) averaging at least 15.0 points (15.2), 8.0 rebounds (8.6) and 4.0 assists (4.6). Vermont held him to a season-low eight points on Feb. 20, resulting in a 59-55 Catamounts win.

Big Sky

Northern Colorado (29.0%)
Montana (17.3%)
Idaho State (13.9%)
Portland State (13.8%)
Montana State (13.0%)
Idaho (5.4%)
Northern Arizona (4.3%)
Weber State (1.6%)
Eastern Washington (1.5%)
Sacramento State (0.4%)

The Bears and the Grizzlies were regular season co-champions, finishing 15-3 in conference play. Northern Colorado has made the NCAA Tournament only once, back in 2011. Montana is looking for its 13th NCAA Tournament bid.

A dark horse candidate could be Portland State, which has wins over both Northern Colorado and Montana since Feb. 15.

Whoever wins the Big Sky will likely represent the conference as a 14 or 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A Big Sky team has not won an NCAA Tournament game since 2006, when 12-seeded Montana beat 5-seeded Nevada.

Southland

McNeese State (61.7%)
Lamar (16.6%)
Nicholls (8.1%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (5.4%)
Northwestern State (3.6%)
Southeastern Louisiana (3.0%)
UIW (1.0%)
Houston Christian (0.7%)

McNeese State is a heavy favorite. Not only did the team go 19-1 in conference play, but the Southland Tournament is played on its home court.

After a break from basketball two seasons ago, Will Wade has led the Cowboys to two regular season titles and will look to upset another team in the NCAA Tournament. A tournament title for the Cowboys will most likely give them a 12-seed, while any other winner would be a 13- or 14-seed.

Atlantic Sun

Lipscomb (36.8%)
North Alabama (30.8%)
FGCU (12.4%)
Eastern Kentucky (7.3%)
Queens (6.2%)
Jacksonville (3.6%)
Austin Peay (2.9%)
Central Arkansas (0.3%)

Queens is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament as it recently transitioned from Division II to Division I. If the Royals do win the ASUN Tournament, then the automatic bid will instead go to the regular season champion. However, Lipscomb and North Alabama were co-champions, thus whoever advances farther in the tournament will get the bid. If they are eliminated in the same round, Lipscomb will receive the bid as the No. 1 seed.

Our model gives the top two seeds a combined 67.5% chance of winning the tournament. Lipscomb has been to the NCAA Tournament just once, while North Alabama is looking for its first appearance. These two project to be a 13 or 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win.

Horizon League

Milwaukee (23.9%)
Robert Morris (22.6%)
Cleveland State (13.7%)
Youngstown State (12.7%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (9.6%)
Oakland (6.9%)
Northern Kentucky (5.7%)
Wright State (4.0%)
IU Indianapolis (0.6%)
Green Bay (0.5%)
Detroit (0.2%)

Robert Morris won the regular season title after winning its last seven games. The Colonials also beat Milwaukee both times this season, but TRACR still slightly favors the Panthers after they won five of their last six games.

Patriot League

Bucknell (38.1%)
American (17.9%)
Navy (11.4%)
Colgate (11.2%)
Lafayette (5.6%)
Boston University (5.2%)
Lehigh (3.7%)
Loyola (MD) (3.1%)
Army (2.6%)
Holy Cross (1.4%)

Bucknell has won six in a row and nine of its last 10, clinching a share of the regular season title with American after the team started the season 4-10. Quite the turnaround for John Griffin in just his second year with the Bison. The model sees Bucknell as a clear favorite following the teamâs recent hot streak.

Sun Belt

Arkansas State (41.2%)
James Madison (20.0%)
Troy (16.7%)
South Alabama (11.7%)
App State (5.0%)
Marshall (2.5%)
Texas State (1.4%)
Georgia State (1.1%)
Louisiana (0.3%)
Georgia Southern (0.1%)
Old Dominion (0.1%)
Southern Miss (<0.1%)
Coastal Carolina (<0.1%)
ULM (<0.1%)

Four teams clinched a share of the Sun Belt regular season title â Arkansas State, South Alabama, Troy and James Madison. TRACR gives a significant edge to the Red Wolves, who beat No. 16 Memphis on the road in December. The Sun Belt champion will likely earn a 13 or 14 seed from the committee.

West Coast

Gonzaga (59.9%)
Saint Mary’s (21.4%)
Santa Clara (11.5%)
San Francisco (5.3%)
Oregon State (1.3%)
Washington State (0.7%)
Portland (0.1%)
Loyola Marymount (0.1%)
Pepperdine (<0.1%)
Pacific (<0.1%)
San Diego (<0.1%)

This has not been the usual Gonzaga team that dominates the West Coast Conference, though it ranks high in TRACR thanks to big wins â eight by at least 30 â and every loss has been decided by single digits. Saint Maryâs has a similar case, with all four losses decided by single digits. The Gaels took both games against the Bulldogs in the regular season.

Big South

High Point (41.2%)
Winthrop (19.5%)
Radford (13.0%)
UNC Asheville (7.5%)
Longwood (7.3%)
Presbyterian (7.1%)
Charleston Southern (3.1%)
Gardner-Webb (1.3%)
USC Upstate (0.4%)

It was a great basketball season at High Point, as the men’s and women’s teams both won regular season conference titles. The Panthers have won 11 games in a row, including the last four by at least 20 points. It would be High Point’s first NCAA Tournament appearance â they are projected to be a 13 seed.

Northeast

Central Connecticut State (49.1%)
LIU (24.9%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (9.4%)
Saint Francis (6.0%)
Stonehill (4.5%)
Wagner (3.1%)
Le Moyne (2.4%)
Chicago State (0.9%)

Mercyhurst is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament and the NEC Tournament due to its recent transition into Division I.

Central Connecticut State has not lost since Jan. 12, while LIU won its last six games to finish with an above .500 record in regular season play. Winner of this conference tournament will likely be a 15 or 16 seed.

Ohio Valley

Southeast Missouri State (36.7%)
SIU Edwardsville (28.7%)
Tennessee State (13.2%)
Little Rock (13.0%)
Tennessee Tech (2.9%)
UT Martin (2.0%)
Lindenwood (1.8%)
Morehead State (1.8%)

Southern Indiana is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament since it recently transitioned into Division I. After finishing with a 5-15 record in conference play, the team will join Eastern Illinois and Western Illinois as the three teams that did not qualify for the Ohio Valley Tournament.

Southeast Missouri State bounced back from a 9-22 record in 2023-24 to earn its first 20-win season since 1999-00, the first time the school made the NCAA Tournament. If the Redhawks earn the conferenceâs bid, they will likely be a 16 seed.

Summit League

South Dakota State (23.1%)
St. Thomas (MN) (21.6%)
North Dakota State (20.5%)
Omaha (18.2%)
South Dakota (7.8%)
Denver (2.8%)
North Dakota (2.6%)
Kansas City (2.6%)
Oral Roberts (1.0%)

Despite finishing with a 12-4 record in conference play, St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to the team’s recent transition from Division III. If the Tommies do win the Summit League tournament, the automatic bid would go to the highest-seeded eligible team, Omaha.

While South Dakota State has the highest likelihood of winning the conference tournament, per TRACR, top-seeded Omaha could still head to the dance with a strong showing from St. Thomas. Or, the Mavericks could make it simple and win the tournament themselves.

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The post Conference Tournament Predictions 2025: Which Menâs Teams Will Earn Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids? appeared first on Opta Analyst.